Whats the right way, and wrong way to groom a QB? Drafting and developing a "franchise" QB is one of the hardest things to do in all of sports. So many factors go into what it takes to be a successfull signal caller in the NFL, and it seems the bust graveyard is loaded with failed 1st round QB's. Im gonna look at the last 10 years of drafting (minus the last three) and see what has made or broken each individual QB drafted in the first round Gonna be 3 post's for the "original post" 1 with a quick synopsis of each player. 2, finding similarities between the success and the failures. And 3,identifying who is set up to develop a franchise QB Part 1: The History Lesson Success is blue, fail is red 2001 Michael Vick Vick came into the NFL as possibly the most gifted QB prospect ever. He however was a player that needed to spend some time on the bench and working on his touch. He logged a few starts as a rook, and took over full time his second year. While Vick was a success, he could have been so much better 2002 David Carr Tedford QB=Strike one. Drafted by an expansion team with very little talent= Strike two. Game one starter with no line. Strike three. Truth is, being a Tedford product, Carr had very long odds at being a franchise QB before he even went to the combine Joey Harrington Another Tedford QB, and in reality was a solid mid to late first round prospect. Scouts really failed him. Other then not being nearly as good a prospect, his situation is almost identical. A system QB drafted by a crap team and forced to play out of the gate. Patrick Ramsey Partially the victim of the disaster that was Steve Spurrior, partially the victim of his own health. Ramsey show promise early on but was derailed by injuries. Gibbs did seem like he wanted to give him a shot, but he got hurt early in 2005 and his skins career was done. Ramsey, more then anything failed because he couldnt stay healthy enough to get into a flow and develop. 2003 Carson Palmer A gifted passer that was picked by a team that had an established vet in front of him and had solidly built the OT position with Anderson and Jones and had drafted young weapons for him and Johnson and Houshmenzadah. Palmer sat him entire rookie year and blossemed into a Pro Bowl QB until injuries derailed him. Palmers development is one of the few things the Bengles FO has done right Byron Leftwhich Another QB that starter very early in his career, Byron's career was derailed by injuries and coaching. When healthy he was a decent QB, but his mechanics were never fixed and his longgggggg delivery left him wide open to take hits, which led him frequently to the injury report. Ultimately after a few years of mediocre play, he was beaten out by another QB Rex Grossman If Leftwhich was hampered by coaching, Rex's was killed by it.Rex, part by design, part by injury, got a 2 year redshirt. When he took over in 2006, it looked like that it had served him well and would become an All Pro QB. Then we were introduced to Bad Rex. The QB that couldnt make a throw if he could step up in the pocket. Something that Screwface Turner (cant remeber his first name) never bothered to correct. Had Grossman landed with Turners brother, this would have turned out much different Kyle Boller Yet another Tedford QB. And people wonder why Rodgers fell so hard. System QB, overated prospect (2nd rounder IMO) and started his rookie year. Im done here, im not getting all whimsicle on Kyle Bollers career 2004 Eli Manning Manning is a QB that got a few starts his rookie year, and took over full time his second. He is a player proves that sometimes you just have to stick with someone. So many times in his early years the Giants justifiably could have said "we need to move on" and stuck with him. Eli is still Eli, but he has become much more accurate and consistent the past few years Phillip Rivers Drafted to replace a terrible Drew Bree's, and then something magic happend....Bree's stopped being terrible. That bought Rivers and Cam Camerron a couple years. By the time River took over, he was QBing a team that had won 21 games total the two seasons prior and one that was loaded enough to win 13 games that year. Another good example of how to do it Ben Rothlisberger Great example of how to plug a guy in, while still bring him along slowly. Early in his Pittsburgh career, Rothlisberger just had to protect the ball and let the defense and running win games. After 3 years, including a rough year 3, Rothlisberger was ready to put the team on his back JP Losman JP Losman was a good raw prospect. Very mobile, and can throw 50 yard bullets Unfortunately he should have been picked in the third round and sat for 3 years. He took over after one because the Bills were tired of Bledsoe holding the ball too long. Losman managed to be even worse holding the ball, especially considering mobility was a big sell point. While he had a promising 2006, after that his weakness's were again exploited 2005 Alex Smith Smith, a spread QB not used to playing under center, started very early his rookie year and had one of the worst years by a QB ever. After this, he was lucky enough that Norv Turner, one of the best play-callers of our generation, became his OC. Unfortunately for Smith it was only for 1 year and Turner took the SD HC job. This started a string of OC's that got up to like what 4, 5 in as many years. Luckily Smith seems to have turned a corner with Harbaugh Aaron Rodgers Sigh, another Tedford, but waiiiiiiit. Rodgers got drafted into a situation where he was going to sit 3 years, have a great coaching staff around, and play on a great team (he inherited a 13 win team). Last year, he won a Super Bowl. This year he is on pace to break the efficiency record. Rodgers proves that just because you were a system QB in college, you can still play at a VERY high level outside that system. Jason Campbell JAG college QB, JAG prospect (3rd rounder IMO), means your lucky if you get a JAG player. Campbell had the staff, the time, the team, the support. He was just mediocre. A JAG 2006 Vince Young Supremely gifted player, that had no business starting as soon as he did. Ya he made the Pro Bowl, but he was terrible. Playing Vince Young that early pretty kills an chance he becomes a franchise player Matt Leinart Big name prospect who killed it in college due to playing on a loaded team. Started early and showed promise, but the team gave up on him after rough patch's. Really a second round prospect talent wise. Mentally not there Jay Cutler Cutler is a weird case, kinda like Jeff George. So gifted as a pure passer, he can succeed in-spite of himself. Grooming wise, while he started halfway through his rookie year he had the advantage a coaching staff including Mike Shanahan and Gary Kubiak, and playing for a team that won 12 games the year before 2007 Jamarcus Russel Really a second round prospect picked first overall. Incredible arm. Not much else. This was just a trainwreck from the start, and no real point dissecting it, other then it shows scouts sometimes overvalue certain things like pure arm strength. Note: Jim Drunkenmiller was rumored to be able to throw a football over 110 yards Brady Quinn Another scouting failure. Another guy that really wasnt a good prospect but got alot of help from Weis's Pro Spread. Basically a Matt Leinart clone. Didnt have a great arm, accuracy was ok, not overly great, was also prone to lapse's in judgement. Was really a 3rd round prospect 2008 Matt Ryan Played immediately and had immediate success while his team won 11 games. However he took a small step back in 2009. The Falcons never wavered and he led them to 13 wins the fallowing season. While he inherited a 4 win team, the team was in a tailspin after the Vick fiasco and Petrino disaster. He had the support core around him Joe Flacco Another QB that started early, and was helped greatly by the patient of his staff and quality of his team, and allowed to slowly progresse (altho he has seem to take a step back this year, maybe this is his Rothlisberger 2006 season)
Part 2: What teams are doing Right/Wrong What teams are doing write Giving QB's the proper time to develop Rodgers, River, Palmer all had the proper opportunity to learn a system and acclimate to the NFL. By the time Rodgers had taken over the Packers, he had 3 years of finding out just what the NFL is all about . Know when you are gong to need a QB, and develop supporting talent Rodgers walked into a team that was built to win already. The two years before the Bengles took Palmer, they spent a first round pick on a OT(Levi Jones) and drafted Chad Johnson and TJ Housmenzadah. And the next round after they drafted Palmer, they took Eric Steinbach. Dont let the cupboard be bare when he has to play Standing by there QB The Packers passed on may opportunities to trade Rodgers. The Giants were at a serious crossroads with Eli in 2006, and the Steelers could have reverted back to2004 form after Ben's horrid 2006. But no, they moved forward and were rewarded Put your QB in a position to not fail early Rothlisberger in 2004 is an obvious example, but instead Im going to use Alex Smiths 2006 with Norv Turner. Turner decided after Smith's horrendous rookie year, he was going simplify the transition and use more shotgun sets with Smith to acclimate him better. This worked very well as Smith went on to improve greatly in 2006 and actually looked like he would be legit. Turner getting the SD job was the worst thing to happen to Smiths career What teams are doing wrong Scouting scouting scouting. Guys like Harrington, Leinart, Quinn, Russell, and Boller are getting drafted a round too high because of 1) A guady physical talent(Russel). 2)A QB friendly system (Harrington, Quinn, Boller) 3) Reputaion (Leinart) Drafting a QB with the intenion of starting him day 1 Just look at the 2002 class again. Both Carr and Harrington could have been successful NFL QB's, but they had no chance under the conditions they were drafted in Loyallty to terrible coachs Do you really want guys like Screwface Turner, Jim Hostler, Are You Jimmy Raye and Bill Musgrave developing our teams future QB's. Me neither Starting players when they have business playing yet Carr, Harrington, Boller, Smith, and Russel very much fall into this. But the biggest one is Vince Young. Vince Young slighly better at playing QB then Tommy Frazier at the time, but had to tools to even be an elite pocket passer. But no, they atsrtd him, told him not to turn the ball over and just put your head down and run. Now thats pretty much all he has ever been able to do
Part 3: Who is set up to properly develop a Franchise QB -Philadelphia Eagles -Talent on the line with an All Pro level LT -Talent at the skill positions - A QB that will be playing there for at least 1, probobly 2 more years - Head Coach is a QB coach. If he isnt around, they can hire the right guy to develope a QB Houston Texans -Solid talent on the line with a run game that can carry a young QB to wins - A QB that will be there for a couple more years - Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels - One of the better QB coach's in the buisness - Head Coach is a QB coach, and was one of the best OC's of his genraration Dallas Cowboys - Very good young Bookend OT's - Good talent at WR - Will be able to sit someone behind Romo - Head Coach is a QB coach Miami Dolphins - Young core of talent on the offensive line - Brandon Marshal - While will probobly start, a quick turnaround is very possible with a new coaching staff Indianapolis Colts - Can sit and learn from Manning for two years - One of the best front offices in the NFL - Decent young OL talent Seattle Seahawks - A good deal of young offensive line talent with 3 first or second round picks in the last 3 years - Solid set of skill position players
I don't think that the Colts are a good potential place for a QB to learn necessarily. I disagree with them having even decent o-line currently and to be frank, starting after Peyton Manning isn't something just anybody is going to be able to thrive in. Rodgers, I think, was a rare find in the sense that I don't foresee many players able to perform at such a high level in the shadow of hall of famers. Could be wrong. And Dolphins.. meh. Same with Seattle. Because like you said, starting day 1 is just bad news generally.. and both teams, that would more than likely be the case.
Good read JJ. I pretty much agree with all of the breakdowns. Smith is the only one I might disagree on and that's just because he appears to be turning the corner and getting better, but for now, it's dead on... I don't like Miami as a place for a QB to learn right now until I see who goes in there as a head coach. the next move the Dolphins make as far as hiring a head coach and drafting a QB is pretty much going to decide where they go the next five years...obviously. But I think it's gonna be more of one extreme or the other with them. Then there is the Stephen Ross factor...
I see both your points on the teams. No team is ever completely set up to groom a QB. If they were they wouldnt need a QB. With Miami and Seattle, both have invested a solid # of picks into their line both having franchise or potential franchise LT. Marshal is also a very good security blanket
few comments i think you are being hard on quinn because your a ND fan, the man was an elite prospect...seemingly had it all. while i agree and always have that russel was a top 25 maybe, but second round prospect that went number one...your assessment of quinn seems like 20/20 hindsight cause he really had it all i dont think the eagles and colts are primed for a franchise QB to come in and succeed....eagles maybe but weve seen andy reid QBs, are any of them franchise QBs? hes clearly shown he doesnt need that QB, but even if we saw him get one would we believe it? the colts minus manning are a trainwreck clearly. caldwell sucks, the team is mediocre, the front office is SO overrated, and if manning cant play anymore that QB is hecked overall great breakdown, not much to disagree with
Quinn like Leinart doesnt have the physical tools an elite prospect has. He was though to be a good cerebral QB, and he proved in Cleveland that wasnt the case. He was lost. He doesnt have the arm strength to be a gunslinger and destroy teams downfield, and cant read play's like people thought he could. I think he still has a shot, because while not amazing, he had solid tools and has been in a few different systems now so he is seeing how different the NFL is. Same with Leinart. I think he has a shot coming out the stretch he is gonna start with teams interested in him as there QB
Reid did develope Farve and McNabb. They have solid peice's on the OL and targets for someone to throw. I think a Landry Jones or a Matt Barkley could put up a 2008 Matt Ryan performance there
he had plenty of arm strength, arm strength doesnt even come close to equaling success....he didnt have the arm of a matt stafford, kyle boller, joe flacco, jay cutler, or jamarcus russell...he was every bit as good as matt ryan, sam bradford, eli manning, philip rivers...none of whom wow you with their arms. hell even andrew luck doesnt have great arm strength, but its plenty enough. point is qunn had it all, really calling him a brady-like prospect is not inaccurate, it thought he could be that caliber of a player, all the tools and much more polished then brady was coming out...i still think he could have been great if he went to the right team that allowed him to grow into the position, the browns have a way of ruining that for players
But he wasnt cerebral. He couldnt read defense's like he should have been able to, thats what those QB's that didnt have that could do. Quinn as it turned out, just couldnt on this level. His arm was OK, but not good enough to where he automaticly had to be respected in the deep game. That was never something he had to do at ND in Wies's Pro Spread. In the NFL he was supposed to be a guy that can read a defense and see where he can get the 15 to 20 yarder. But he just couldnt I know arm strength isnt everything. Peyton's doesnt have great arm strength, and that was the reason some favored Leaf who makes Cutler look like a noodle arm
It can still happen I was wrong about him coming out, and now I can see why he fell so far in the draft. Looking at Claussen, I can understand even more. Weis's Pro Spread offense may be worse at prepping College QB's then a regular spread offense. You get those easy reads just like Texas Tech, but you also get the TE and HB security blanket Thats something people forgot when touting Weis's offense as "Pro" It was pro if you got drafted by the 3 or 4 teams that run something like that. Other then that, not much different then any other spread
