Sporting News: RB Rankings

wide right · Jul 7, 2007

Full RB rankings

Don't blame it all on Mike Shanahan. Running back committees have become more popular in a league whose players keep getting bigger, stronger and faster. As teams try to protect their investments, suddenly a timeshare isn't just a beach house in Florida anymore.

Workhorse backs such as Larry Johnson are becoming a rare breed and, therefore, even hotter commodities in fantasy leagues. In 2003, 13 backs carried the ball 300-plus times, but that number was 10 last year. Meanwhile, 27 backs had 200 or more carries in '06, compared with 23 in '03, indicating more players are getting involved in game plans.

Clearly, there's a transformation going on, and we, as fantasy owners, need to accept it. If we get the chance to draft Johnson or a player like him, we'd better take it. But if we don't, then it's best to zero in on the roles of the backs who are in committees.

Target backs who get carries in the red zone or in other important situations because that means the coach trusts them. Other factors to consider include age, health risks, skill set and whether the team he plays for favors the run and has the talent necessary to succeed.

This is why you'd want to draft Maurice Jones-Drew before Fred Taylor. Drew beats Taylor in three categories (red zone touches, age and health) and isn't far behind in a fourth (skill set).

DRAFT STRATEGY

Because workhorse backs are in such demand, it's imperative that you use a first-round pick to get one. Fight the temptation to be the owner who strays from the pack and drafts Peyton Manning. The drop in production at running back is more severe than at any other position. Plan on drafting two backs in the first three rounds, or you'll be desperately searching for help later.

MEDICAL REPORT

Clinton Portis is expected to be ready for training camp after having shoulder and hand surgeries. Portis is a 300-plus carry back when healthy, but make sure to grab Ladell Betts as insurance.

Kevin Jones is hoping to make it back from a foot injury by training camp, but he's a big risk. The Lions brought in Tatum Bell and T.J. Duckett during the offseason, so they have options.

Deuce McAllister had minor knee surgery during the offseason. He'll be fine, but he will continue to share carries with Reggie Bush. Deuce's value is limited to that of a low-end No. 2 fantasy back.

Warrick Dunn had offseason shoulder surgery and is expected to return by training camp. However, he could lose his starting job to Jerious Norwood in the changeover from Jim Mora Jr. to Bobby Petrino.

LaMont Jordan is expected to recover fully from a torn knee ligament, but he plays for a weak offense and will share carries with newcomer Dominic Rhodes.

Jamal Lewis' ankle could continue to bother him. It's yet another reason not to like the Browns' new feature back as he joins a rebuilding team with a struggling line.

AUCTION STRATEGY

Plan on spending 60-65 percent of your allotted budget on running backs, and don't be bashful about doing so. Remember, you always can find $1 values at kicker and defense -- and even tight end and wide receiver -- to fill out your roster. But going cheap at running back is a huge mistake that will cost you (in lost league fees) later.

PRIMED TO BREAK OUT

With Rhodes gone, Indy's Joseph Addai takes over as the No. 1 back in the league's most potent offense. Now that he has a year of experience, Addai is better equipped to be the next Edgerrin James.

Willis McGahee was a solid fantasy back in Buffalo, but with better talent around him in Baltimore, he'll get more chances to score touchdowns and pile up yardage by running out the clock late in games.

With Corey Dillon out of the picture, Laurence Maroney has a chance to shine in New England. Defenses won't be able to key on Maroney now that Tom Brady can throw to Randy Moss and Donte' Stallworth.

HEADED FOR A FALL

Ahman Green turned 30, but instead of a surprise party in Mazatlan, he headed to Houston, where defenses will tee off on him. Inexperienced QB Matt Schaub will do little to keep pressure off Green.

Julius Jones' career hasn't even taken off yet in Dallas, but now that the coach who drafted him is gone, a fall in fantasy production could continue at the hands of Marion Barber III.

ANALYGRAPHIC

It probably won't surprise you that LaDainian Tomlinson was the most popular player on first-place teams last year. But it doesn't take a genius to figure out L.T. needed to be drafted early. A look at last year's top key players in Sporting News' Games reveals that the real find of the draft was Frank Gore, who was picked an average of 56 spots later than L.T.

Player Key player %* Avg. draft position
LaDainian Tomlinson 54.77 3
Brian Westbrook 19.45 18
Marvin Harrison 17.98 19
Frank Gore 17.43 59
Donald Driver 16.15 45

* Key player = percentage of first-place teams that owned this player.

TOP ROOKIES

Minnesota's Adrian Peterson will lighten the load for Chester Taylor, who wore down last season. That's good, but the news is mostly bad for Taylor's fantasy value. Expect Peterson to take away plenty of inside carries, including in the red zone. Both are risky choices as No. 2s, but value Peterson's upside more.

Buffalo will throw Marshawn Lynch into the fire, and he could crash and burn behind a rebuilding line. Don't forget that twinky Jauron likes to use the A-Train (Anthony Thomas), and could do so again in goal-line sets. Lynch isn't someone who should be high on your list.

DRAFT-DAY DECISIONS

Travis Henry vs. Thomas Jones. Henry will run behind a better offensive line in Denver than Jones will have in New York. Plus, the Jets face tougher run defenses in the AFC East. It's time for fantasy owners to say, "Oh Henry!"

Cedric Benson vs. Marion Barber III. Barber likely will share touches with Julius Jones, while Benson takes over in Chicago now that Thomas Jones is gone. Benson has disappointed us before, but provided he pans out, he's the pick.

NOT AS GOOD AS I ONCE WAS?

Forget that Toby Keith song when it comes to Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James. These are still valuable workhorse backs you can draft later than usual because they're both coming off down seasons. Expect Alexander to bounce back from an injury-plagued 2006, and he'll be a solid No. 1 fantasy back. Meanwhile, a coaching change in Arizona should do wonders for James, who is reliable as a No. 2.

The important thing to remember with these backs is that they have little competition for carries. As we've already mentioned, those are the backs who turn into fantasy gold.

TOP RECEIVING BACKS

1. Reggie Bush, Saints
2. Brian Westbrook, Eagles
3. Steven Jackson, Rams

Senior Editor George Winkler
Click to expand...

Source: The Sporting News, George Winkler

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Sporting News: RB Rankings

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Sporting News: RB Rankings

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