I set out today to do some research on the NFL pass/run ratio during the history of the league. My initial premise was to show that teams are passing more and more each year and, at some point in the future, the run game would be almost a sidenote to a team’s offensive game plan, just to keep defenses honest. I referenced Pro Football Reference’s history archives (PFR is a great site if you haven’t checked it out). Most of my theory was correct, until I hit 1995 until present day. Let me explain ……. American football was built on the ground. In 1932, the first year PFR has stats for pass/run ratios, the league ran the ball at an astonishing 75.6% clip, passing only about 1 out of every 4 snaps. As the game evolved, teams started passing more, and by the 60’s, teams were passing at an almost equal rate as the run. However, the league began reverting back to a run-oriented game during the 70’s and the 1977 season saw the league running once again at a very high rate (60%). The slower, run-oriented game did not sit well with Pete Rozelle and the owners. Therefore, 2 very pass-friendly rule changes were implemented after the 1977 season. First, defenders were no longer allowed to make contact with receivers 5 yards beyond the LOS and, secondly, pass blockers were allowed to extend their arms and open their hands. These rule changes immediately changed the game. Within 5 years, the league was passing more than they were running for the first time in the league’s history. And by 1995, the league was only running the ball 44% of the time. However, since the peak in 1995, there has been very little change in how often teams are passing the ball. Even with the common perception that many rules have been implemented recently to ‘protect quarterbacks’, the league seems content at this 55/45 pass/run ratio over the past 15 years. So, what gives? With the current rules in place, is 55/45 simply the ideal pass/run ratio or has this copycat league just not evolved any further in offensive schemes? Last year, even most of the teams with ‘Top 10’-quality QB’s only passed at a 55% rate. My feeling is that it took defensive coaching/defensive schemes almost 20 years to ‘catch up’ with the new pass-friendly league and, once they ‘caught up’, the passing growth stalled. I don’t think we will see a significant change in the pass/run ratio without another significant rule change or 2…………. Question is, do we WANT rule changes to increase passing once again or is this the ideal mix?
In addition to the rule changes, I think one of the keys to the increase in passing over the history of the NFL is that D-Coordinators began focusing more and more on stopping the run. While focusing to stop the run, the pass number naturally go up. The defensive mentality is to stop the run first, in turn giving up the pbutt...
yeah PFR is the crap I've been going there for years. I guess we'll just have to let ball bounce where it may. There's nothing we can do about how they change rules. For better or worse.
Great article Captain.... I visit pro football reference a lot.....helped quite a bit with my Hall of Fame threads.
