Ever wonder how winners prepare for the fantasy football draft? Do you want to learn how to create your own projections, tiers and cheat sheets for the draft? Bookmark this page because it's a large library of content focused on teaching you how to create fantasy football projections and in turn use those projections to create tiers and cheat sheets to dominate your draft. You'll also learn how to prepare for your draft and instinctively make logical calls when it's your turn to pick.
What You'll Learn in This 12 Part Video Series
- How to create projections for each NFL position.
- How to turn projections into ratings based on consistency to make drafting easier.
- How to use those ratings to create positional cheat sheets and tiers.
Are you ready to learn how to create fantasy football projections like a boss? If not, then check out our ready make cheat sheets and save time.
Here we will introduce you to a few broad fantasy football draft concepts aimed at teaching you how to draft a fantasy football team like the professionals. From projections to tiers and rankings, I’ll dedicate extended time to each idea in later videos, so don’t get overwhelmed if you feel like you missed something.
The first concept we’ll cover in this video series is how to create projections. Projections, in terms of your exact stat predictions for each player, are really the foundation of your draft strategy. Essential to the accuracy of your projections is the idea of consistency; which stats carry over from year to year and which don’t. Consistency, or a lack of it, is one reason most experienced owners wait until the last rounds to select kickers and defenses. It doesn’t matter how many points players at a particular position will score if you can’t accurately predict those performances during the draft.
Regression Toward the Mean
Related to the concept of consistency is regression toward the mean. One of the biggest mistakes fantasy owners make is believing that a player’s stats over the course of a season or even a few seasons are a reflection of what that player really is in some objective sense. The truth is that fantasy football is a game of percentages and randomness plays more of a role in outcomes than most of us want to believe. By understanding which stats are likely to regress toward the mean and how they’ll do so, you can create more accurate projections, providing exceptional leverage during your fantasy football draft.
Once our projections are complete, we’ll need to turn them into rankings. A lot of fantasy owners will simply use their projections themselves as rankings, drafting players who they think will score the most points. This isn’t how to draft a winning fantasy football team.
Just like a stock broker, the best fantasy owners have a keen understanding of how risk and potential reward affect value. Depending on a variety of factors, such as where you are in the draft and your current roster, you may very well want to bypass your best available player or the player you expect to score the most points for one with greater upside. Other times, it’s best to play it safe and stick with the sure thing.
Another factor that makes drafting more complicated than simply selecting your highest projected players is scarcity. In almost all situations, you should draft the players who are outliers at their particular positions. By utilizing scarcity (or how players’ projections compare to others within their position) you can create tiered rankings that will help you make the right choices on draft day.
Finally, we’ll use our rankings to create separate big boards for each position. I advocate this approach because the value of each player in relation to other players at different positions is relative; it changes as the draft unfolds, and that limits the practicality of one overarching big board.
No matter how you construct your final fantasy football draft board, you need to be flexible with it on draft day. I’ll show you exactly how to use your draft board, when it is smart to choose your top-rated player and when you should actually bypass him.
Step 1: How to create projections
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