It has been well chronicled that highly productive quarterbacks are more prevalent than ever for fantasy owners. Simply because an increasing number of them are throwing with greater regularity, and connecting with their targets for expanding yardage totals, and more TDs. The numbers in every major category continue to demonstrate just how significantly passing in general has increased in recent seasons, resulting in an all-out assault on the record books. 10 different signals callers threw for over 4,000 yards last year, which is a 100% increase from just five years ago, and a massive 500% jump from 2000. It is also the second time that has occurred in during the past three seasons alone. But that is not the only yardage benchmark that has been reached with increased frequency. Prior to 2011, only twice in NFL history, had a QB thrown for 5,000 yards in one season. But then Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Matthew Stafford all accomplished that last season. And Eli Manning just missed making it a foursome by accumulating 4,933 yards.
Not surprisingly, TDs passes are also on the rise. An average of 11 QBs have thrown at least 25 in the past three years. That is a sizable leap from 2000, when only four attained that number. A record five threw for at least 30 TDs in each of the past two seasons, and three even generated 40+, which also occurred for the first time ever. These increases were inevitable, because teams have chosen to throw with more frequency. 16 signal callers had at least 500 passing attempts last season which was the fourth time in five years that at least 10 QBs surpassed that number. But as recently as 2005 and 2006, only three achieved that mark.
| Year | 5,000 Yards | 4,000 Yards | 40+ TD Passes | 30+ TD Passes | 25+ TD Passes |
|
2005 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
|
2006 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
|
2007 |
0 |
5 |
1 |
4 |
10 |
|
2008 |
1 |
6 |
0 |
3 |
7 |
|
2009 |
0 |
10 |
0 |
4 |
12 |
|
2010 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
5 |
11 |
|
2011 |
3 |
10 |
3 |
5 |
9 |
Statistics continue to prove that these trends will continue this season. And as a result, QBs will remain on top of many leagues’ fantasy point leader board. For example, a league that I have been involved with for 12 years, still only allows four points for passing TDs, and six for both rushing and receiving scores. Yet, the top nine scorers in 2011 were still QBs, as were 18 of the top 20. An even larger collection of QBs would have been firmly entrenched at the summit of league scoring, if QBs were rewarded with six points for each passing TD.
Considering the immense amount of numbers that underline the statistical dominance of the league’s most prolific QBs, why not seize someone of this select group very early in your draft? Or put another way… why settle for a good QB, when you can improve your chances of winning with an exceptional one? There are three QBs who are definitely worthy of a first round selection, and a compelling case can be made for a fourth. Particularly, if you reside in a league with 12 teams or more, or a league that awards six points for passing TDs.
If you are on the clock during the first round of your fantasy drafts, and Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, and Ray Rice are already off the board, there is a convincing evidence that you should quickly seize Aaron Rodgers. And if Calvin Johnson is also unavailable as the round progresses, then you should strongly consider grabbing Brady or Brees. As opposed to settling for a RB with many question marks, or a WR other than Johnson, when that position is easily the deepest this season. That same principle applies at the bottom of round one, when you have an opportunity to grab Stafford.
Thanks to the Dominator Package, that is available here at fantasyknuckleheads.com, I was able to generate a value based system that not only proved yet again how beneficial our package can be for you at your upcoming drafts, but also exhibited how extensively the production of Rodgers, Brees and Brady is expected to surpass that of the other QBs again this season. This was accomplished simply by entering my league’s scoring system, along with both the number of teams and player slots. I then based the projections on a 12 team league, with six points for passing TDs. Our Dominator Package then generated point projections for all QBs, and allowed me to determine the number of projected points each of them can be expected to produce (plus or minus), in comparison to the league average.
|
QB |
Team |
Projected Points |
ADP |
Value |
Next ADP |
Next Value |
SOS |
| Aaron Rodgers |
GB |
448 |
9 |
80 |
20 |
26 |
30 |
| Drew Brees |
NO |
404 |
28 |
36 |
36 |
9 |
22 |
| Tom Brady |
NE |
394 |
20 |
26 |
23 |
-14 |
13 |
| Matthew Stafford |
DET |
377 |
36 |
9 |
48 |
-4 |
32 |
| Tony Romo |
DAL |
371 |
72 |
3 |
73 |
-42 |
3 |
| Michael Vick |
PHI |
364 |
48 |
-4 |
72 |
3 |
2 |
| Ben Roethlisberger |
PIT |
360 |
96 |
-8 |
110 |
-42 |
11 |
| Cam Newton |
CAR |
354 |
23 |
-14 |
28 |
36 |
24 |
| Peyton Manning |
DEN |
340 |
74 |
-28 |
75 |
-31 |
29 |
| Matt Ryan |
ATL |
337 |
84 |
-31 |
95 |
-64 |
26 |
| Eli Manning |
NYG |
337 |
75 |
-31 |
84 |
-31 |
4 |
| Matt Schaub |
HOU |
332 |
111 |
-36 |
131 |
-57 |
27 |
| Jay Cutler |
CHI |
327 |
110 |
-42 |
111 |
-36 |
28 |
| Philip Rivers |
SD |
326 |
73 |
-42 |
74 |
-28 |
14 |
| Carson Palmer |
OAK |
311 |
131 |
-57 |
135 |
-74 |
18 |
| Joe Flacco |
BAL |
306 |
152 |
-62 |
156 |
-89 |
20 |
| Robert Griffin III |
WAS |
304 |
95 |
-64 |
96 |
-8 |
5 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick |
BUF |
300 |
146 |
-68 |
152 |
-62 |
7 |
| Andy Dalton |
CIN |
294 |
139 |
-74 |
146 |
-68 |
10 |
| Andrew Luck |
IND |
279 |
156 |
-89 |
170 |
-99 |
9 |
While the projected points should be self-explanatory, a quick review of value drafting might be required. It is the number of projected points that player is expected to produce (plus or minus), when compared to the league average. All based upon that league’s point system, and the number of player slots.
In the customized sheet displayed above, five QBs are projected to score more points than the league average of starters at that position, but the mammoth number of 80 that Rodgers possesses, should immediately seize your attention. Can you really afford to pass on a QB that is forecast to such a massive degree? And his value is just one of many numbers that plainly show how much he currently stands out above all peers. As I mentioned in my recent top 50 article https://fantasyknuckleheads.com/clark-early-top-50-fantasy-football-rankings/, 15 QBs threw more passes than his 502 attempts last season. Yet, he still managed to produce the second highest number of TDs (45), and tossed just six INTs. That’s unparalleled. It also helps explain his league leading 122.5 rating. And his 448 points in the draft projection worksheet, ascend above all others. As does that exceptional value of 80. He has averaged 4,260 yards per season since 2008, and he should approach year’s TD total.
Brees and Brady had virtually identical production in recent seasons, which reflects in their similar values. If you eliminate Brady's 2008 numbers, when injury limited him to just one contest, he has thrown for an average of 4,585 yards, and 38 TDs in his last four seasons. Meanwhile, Brees has averaged 4,888 yards and 36 TDs in his last four. If you are concerned about offseason distractions impacting Brees, temper that with the reminder that he edged Brady to lead the NFL in yardage last season (5,476 to 5,235), and his 46 TD were also the league's best total.
After Stafford missed 19 games in his first two seasons, we finally witnessed what he is capable of over the course of 16 contests. Not only did he finish third in yardage by joining the 5,000 yard club, but his 41 TDs were also the NFL's third highest total.
Yet despite impressive catalog of accomplishments by Rodgers, Brees and Brady, the fact that more QBs are producing higher numbers in each critical category, might tempt you to wait before drafting your QB. And some analysts will actually advise you to do exactly that. But I believe that just the opposite is now true. Sure… you might avoid selecting your QB in the early rounds and still secure someone who will toss 20-25 TDs. While that might initially sound acceptable, at least six or seven others are likely to surpass that total, with some of them generating nearly twice that amount. That means you often are destined to lose the weekly battle for points at this critical position. Sometimes by a very wide margin.
To put it another way…the strategy of delaying your selection of a QB embraces the premise that the QB position is “deep”. But that can only be the case if you consider production that is only 60% of the statistical leaders at that position to be good enough for your needs. Do you really want to start a QB whose scoring will fall at least 120 points behind Rodgers?
In the league that I mentioned in a previous paragraph, my QB last season was Tony Romo, who was the seventh leading scorer with 347 points. Not bad, but his total was a whopping 132 less than Brees, while trailing both Rodgers and Brady by 98 and 95 respectively. Even though I owned a good QB… who could even be considered very good… not owning Rodgers, Brees or Brady placed my team at a disadvantage.
Thanks to the Dominator Package, the customized chart also delivered a road map toward creating a tier system. Rodgers clearly stands out, and occupies a tier all by himself as a result. Brees and Brady have distinguished themselves sufficiently to share the second tier. While Stafford is not quite at the level of the elite trio currently above him, he has separated himself from all other QBs, and should join them as a first round choice.
Cam Newton, whose ADP of nine is currently second highest among all QBs, will have difficulty matching last season’s 14 rushing TDs. Plus, Carolina’s continued inability to provide him with a legitimate No.2 WR, will impact his final total of passing TDs. And while other members of the much larger fourth and fifth tiers are extremely close, their projected numbers dictate the ultimate landing spot.
Tier One
Aaron Rodgers
Tier Two
Drew Brees
Tom Brady
Tier Three
Matthew Stafford
Tier Four
Cam Newton
Eli Manning
Tony Romo
Philip Rivers
Tier Five
Peyton Manning
Michael Vick
Ben Roethlisberger
Matt Ryan
Matt Schaub
Good luck in your drafts, and don’t hesitate to draft one of the elite QBs in round one. You can thank me in December.
