Welcome to the how to draft training series. In this video, I’m going to show you how to create your final power ratings for quarterbacks. If you’ve followed along thus far, we’ve already created our quarterback stats projections and turned those stat projections into projected points based on our league’s scoring system. Now, we need to multiply those projected points by the consistency correlations for each stat.
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These consistency correlations
- .51 for passing yards
- .40 for passing touchdowns
- .78 for QB rushing yards
- .55 for quarterback rushing touchdowns
- .15 for INT
These are a representation of the predictability of each stat. It basically shows how random each stat can be from year to year.
It’s interesting to note that passing yards are more consistent than passing touchdowns. That should be pretty intuitive if you think about the sample size of each. A quarterback’s passing touchdowns can fluctuate from year to year based on team strength and red zone opportunities, while passing yards don’t do that to the same extent.
Also note that quarterback rushing stats are extremely reliable. Actually, quarterback rushing yards is the most predictable stat in all of fantasy football. While everyone was claiming how risky Cam Newton was heading into 2012, the truth is that he was an extremely safe pick. Quarterbacks who run the ball typically post consistent rushing stats each year and they have more ways to beat defenses than pure pocket passers.
Finally, note that with a consistency correlation of just .15, interceptions are very fluky. I hinted at this in an earlier video when I told you that your INT projections aren’t nearly as important as you might think.
How To Create a Power Rating At Quarterback
With that in mind, let’s create a power rating for Cam Newton. Let’s assume we project Newton to throw for 4,200 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 15 picks in 2013 and rush for 650 yards and 8 TDs. Using standard scoring, we can easily calculate the points Newton would be projected to score in each category.
Now we need to multiply those projected points by the consistency correlations for each stat. Again, this is a pretty easy and straightforward process. Remember that the new figures are no longer projections for Newton, but rather the basis of our power rating.
Adding it all together, our final power rating for Newton is 191.9. That number doesn’t do us much good in isolation, but it will be quite useful when we create power ratings for the other quarterbacks to make comparisons during the fantasy football draft.
If you want to see why creating these power ratings is useful, consider that the weight given to Newton’s rushing stats is higher in our power rating than it was in the initial projections. Since QB rushing stats are predictable, that extra weight is what allows for more accurate predictions.
In the next video, I’ll give you the running back consistency correlations and we’ll go over the same process for that position. Thanks for checking out the fantasyknuckleheads.com how to draft a winning fantasy football team training series.
