Welcome back to the how to draft training series. We have shown you how to project quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers. In this video, I’ll do the same for tight ends. Remember, our goal when creating a power rating is to factor the predictability of each stat into our rankings.
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To do that, we need to know the consistency correlations for each stat, or how regularly each stat carries over from season to season. Here they are for tight ends.
Tight ends have a year-to-year correlation of:
- receptions 0.51
- yards are 0.48
- touchdowns are 0.75
Tight end is a highly-consistent position
You can see that tight end is a highly-consistent position—perhaps the most consistent in all of fantasy football. Tight ends score touchdowns in particular more reliably than any other position. Tight end receptions and yards are also rather predictable from season to season.
To show you how to use these correlations, let’s take a look at Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski. Let’s say we project Gronkowski for 75 receptions, 1000 yards, and 13 touchdowns. In a standard PPR league, that would result in 75 points for receptions, 100 points for yards, and 78 points for touchdowns.
Now we need to multiply those projected points by the consistency correlations. The individual ratings that we get for each of Gronkowski’s stats are no longer actual projections, but since they implement consistency, they’ll be more useful to us.
When we add all of the individual ratings together, we get a final power rating of 144.8 for Gronkowski. Notice how the value of Gronkowski’s touchdowns changes in the power rating. Whereas touchdowns counted for 22 fewer points than yards in the initial projections, they’re now 10.5 points more than the value for yards in our power rating. That jump is due to the high year-to-year consistency of tight end touchdowns.
In effect, you’re choosing to pay for touchdowns when drafting tight ends. That’s actually in contrast to wide receivers, whose season-to-season touchdown correlation is nearly half that of tight ends. Valuing touchdowns for the two positions in the same way would be a mistake, and the power ratings correct for that.
In the next video, I’m going to show you how to use your power ratings to create your final rankings. Thanks again for checking out the fantasyknuckleheads.com how to draft draft training series. If you have any questions or comments, head over to the forum.