Jameis Winston should not be the top pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. Jameis Winston is not even the 
best QB, much less the best player in this year's draft. As a matter of fact I would not draft him at all.
I keep thinking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the owner of the top pick in the 2015 NFL Draft are putting up a smoke screen by saying they are going to draft Jameis Winston. They finished the year at 2-14 and have so many holes to fill.
Here is how the Buccaneers ranked versus the other teams in the NFL:
- 25th in passing yards
- 29th in rushing yards
- 28th in opponents passing yards
- 19th in opponents rushing yards
As you can see the Buccaneers have so many holes to fill and why would you do it with a player that is not even the best at his position and he has so many character issues.
Jameis Winston Personal History
Here is a quick run down of Jameis Winston's issues while at Florida State:
- 11/25/12: handcuffed for having a long barreled pistol which turned out to be pellet gun and he was released without being charged.
- 11/25/12: a few hours later Jameis Winston along with a few teammates have the police called on them for having a pellet gun battle in their apartment, causing over $4,000 in damage. They barely missed being arrested because a Florida State booster vows the players will pay for damage.
- 12/7/12: accused of raping a woman at his off campus apartment, but the case ends in there not enough evidence to file criminal charges.
- 7/21/13: accused of entering a Burger King, getting a cup of water, poured it out and starting drinking soda without paying despite objections by workers there. No charges were filed.
- 4/29/14: steals over $32 of crab legs from a Tallahassee supermarket. He was suspended from the FSU baseball team until he completed his community service.
- 5/20/14: he was expected at a code of conduct hearing at Florida State, but does not show up.
- 9/16/14: seen by several students jumping up on a table on campus and screaming a sexually charged expletive-laced phrase that was made popular on the internet.
- 10/13/14: investigated by FSU for accepting money for autographs, which ended up compromising his athletic eligibility.
So, do you want to invest millions of your dollars into this guy that has been in trouble that much over the last several years? Can you trust him to put the work in needed to be the best quarterback in the NFL?
Prototype size and speed for a quarterback in the NFL is 6.3 223 with a 4.81 40 yard dash. Jameis Winston is 6.4 231 with a 4.91 40 yard dash. So, as you can see he has the size and speed to be a good quarterback.
Some of Bill Parcells' criteria for drafting a quarterback are that they
- complete 60% of their passes; Jameis Winston completed 65.3% of his passes last season
- have a TD/INT ratio of 2/1; Jameis Winston only has a 1.4 TD/INT ratio
- must win 23 games in their career; Jameis Winston won 26 games during his career
- earn their degree; Jameis Winston does not have his degree, would have if he would have stayed another year
There was a study done in 2010 on Bill Parcells' criteria for drafting a quarterback that have become so famous. The study showed covered from 1999 to 2010 and the one criteria that proved to be the most successful at predicting future success was earning a degree.
Quarterbacks that earned their degree win on average 1.5 games more per year than quarterbacks who did not.
Jameis Winston has not earned his degree yet, plus his TD/INT ratio is not where it needs to be. As Jimmy Johnson says it is not how many big plays a team makes on Sunday that determines whether they win or lose, but the number of bad plays they make.
Jameis Winston makes too many bad plays and has too many character issues.
My Top 5 Quarterbacks
- Marcus Mariota, Oregon
- 6.4 228 4.43 40
- 68.3%
- 10.5 TD/INT ratio
- 36 career wins
- Brett Hundley, UCLA
- 6.3 226 4.6 40
- 69.1%
- 4.4 TD/INT ratio
- 28 career wins
- Bryce Petty, Baylor
- 6.3 230 4.81 40
- 63.1%
- 4.1 TD/INT ratio
- 21 career wins
- Garrett Grayson, Colorado State
- 6.2 213 4.75 40
- 64.3%
- 4.6 TD/INT ratio
- 19 career wins
- Shane Carden, East Carolina
- 6.2 219 4.9 40
- 63.5%
- 3 TD/INT ratio
- 25 career wins
My Top 5 Sleepers
1. Hutson Mason, Georgia
- 6.2 207 4.79 40
- 67.9%
- 5.25 TD/INT ratio
- 13 career wins
2. Matt Behrendt, Wisconsin Whitewater
- 6.1 190 4.9 40
- 68%
- 5.25 TD/INT ratio
- 37 career wins
3. Connor Halliday, Washington State
- 6.3 196 4.87 40
- 67.3%
- 3 TD/INT ratio
- 14 career wins
4. Terrance Broadway, Louisiana-Lafayette
- 6.1 223 4.62 40
- 63.2%
- 1.8 TD/INT ratio
- 18 career wins
5. Conner Hempel, Harvard
- 6.1 214 4.64 40
- 69%
- 3.5 TD/INT ratio
- 13 career wins
What do you think?
I like Marcus Mariota as the #1, as you outlined so well above Winston has to many character issues. So hard to gauge NFL readiness and find the next Andrew Luck.
Yes it is very hard to gauge. A QB needs so many pieces to be successful. He needs a good offensive line, some weapons to throw to and a running game to take some pressure off of him.
Look at the two teams in the Super Bowl. Tom Brady nor Russell Wilson were 1st round draft picks. Tony Romo was an undrafted free agent.
I am a true believer in building the rest of the team first.
I’m wondering if the author reread his article before publishing it. He states “the one criteria that proved to be the most successful at predicting future success was earning a degree” and then gives us his rankings and doesn’t mention which guys have earned a degree. What???
Thomas,
I did reread my article before I published it and I decided not to include in the article which quarterbacks had a degree because all of my top 5 have or will earn their degree.
As I state in the article, this was not the only way I ranked my quarterbacks.
But my top 5 all had their degrees.
A lot of people including myself talked a lot of the same junk about Cam Newton when he came out and look at him now. Cam is easily top 10 in the NFL but had a lot of the same issues Winston had. The fact is he could be a bust or he could be great and that will depend on his coaches and the opportunities the organization that drafts him gives him. People in Buffalo act like E.J. Manual is a bust but he was only given 14 starts for a team with a horrible offensive line. Any one of the above quarterbacks has the ability to succeed but it all depends on the guys and coaches around them.
Kevin,
I would have to disagree with you about Cam Newton easily being in the top 10 in the NFL. He ranked 21st in passing yards this past season, while throwing 12 interceptions and only 18 touchdowns.
I do agree with you about E. J. Manuel. I think he can be a really good quarterback if he gets some help. I thought they passed the ball way too much last season and should have relied on their strong run game and play action passes more to help Manuel.
I couldn’t disagree more with your column about Winston. This guy is the only pro ready QB of the lot. Give me a break already. This QB class may not be the best class in history but Winston can play now as a rookie. No doubt about it. Mariotta hasn’t taken one snap under center. Not one. He’s a product of the Oregon system and will be eaten alive in the pros unless they let him sit and learn like Green Bay did with Aaron Rodgers and Dallas did with Tony Romo, etc. The Bucs need to win now and they need a QB now. Winston is the logical choice despite his off the field issues which in my opinion, the media blew way out of proportion. Winston has won at every level and he’ll win in the NFL. Not to mention this kid has an extremely high IQ when it comes to X’s and O’s and is lot smarter in the class room when it comes to football. Great aptitude. If you actually met him and hung out with Winston, you’d take him too.
Sam,
I think the Bucs have so many holes to fill any QB they select will have a very hard time. I would maybe trade the pick to get more players. They need better players at many positions.
I do agree with you that Winston is intelligent and appears to be a people person and people like him. I noticed at the Combine that the players gravitated towards him.
He just really needs to grow up.
I am pleased to see Shane Carden on your list. My sister and I have had season tickets since he started playing QB for the Pirates. He is so much fun to watch! He does have his degree and I have had the chance to meet him last summer. I hope he gets an opportunity to play in the NFL.
Hey Catharine,
I am a fan of Carden myself and think he is a pretty good QB. I have heard many of the so called experts say that he doesn’t have the arm strength to be a starting QB that he will be relegated to a backup role in the NFL.
But when I evaluate him, I see prototype size and speed. A very good completion percentage, a great TD to INT ratio and he has 25 career wins. To me that is a darn good quarterback and like you said he has his degree.
As I said in the article the study I found on Bill Parcells’ criteria for drafting a QB the study showed that the most important one was having a degree.
Quarterbacks that earned their degree win on average 1.5 games more per year than quarterbacks who did not.
Good luck to him I wish him well.
What about sean mannion, definitely sleeper material
Chuck,
I do like Sean Mannion from Oregon State, but I felt he was too well known to be a sleeper and I do not think he is a top 5 quarterback. Some draft experts have him in their top 5, I do not however.