Fantasy football is just as much about knowing who not to pick as knowing who to pick. Fantasy traps lay in wait for you to fall prey to in your drafts, and the wise man keeps his eye out for such players.
This is not to say that I think that all of the following players are going to have bad seasons -- I predict some of these guys below to produce well in 2015. But they find themselves on this Do Not Draft list because they are overpriced in drafts at their respective average draft positions (ADP).
Peyton Manning - QB - Denver Broncos - ADP: 45 overall, QB3
I am not a Peyton Manning hater. Peyton Manning is going to bounce back to putting up solid fantasy numbers on a consistent basis, but his current going ADP is just too high to pay.
The issue is that Peyton's ceiling is not what it used to be. Because of the age/durability factor, questions surround how much he'll be able to muster up in season number 18.
Even more than this is the fact that head coach Gary Kubiak is going to run the ball more than the Broncos have in the last three years. The talk about C.J. Anderson being a workhorse for the Broncos is absolutely true; they are going to run him into the ground.
I still think that it's safe to bet that Peyton throws over 30 touchdowns considering how creative he can get down near the redzone. But 4,000 yards might be too lofty a number to reach for the Sheriff.
Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan all have legitimate chances at matching what Manning can do from a fantasy standpoint, and they cost much less for you to roster.
Justin Forsett - RB - Baltimore Ravens - ADP: 29 overall, RB11
Justin Forsett blew away all expectations last year by averaging 5.4 yards per carry to 1,266 yards and 8 scores. He was one of the most consistent fantasy backs for fantasy players despite no one predicted him having a good year.
It will be very hard for Forsett to repeat the feats he accomplished last season though. Unless he pulls a Fred Jackson and finds the fountain of youth. He does after all, have a low number of carries compared to other starting running backs his age.
Gary Kubiak, who coordinated the Ravens' offense last year, has moved on from Baltimore to Denver. Kubiak has always been known for being able to implement a solid run game, and with that gone, Forsett's numbers are going to slip. New OC Marc Trestman has indicated that not much will change regarding the offensive scheme, but saying something in July is a lot different than doing it for 16 straight weeks through the regular season.
The drafting of USC's Javorius "Buck" Allen is also of some concern for Forsett. The Ravens did need to add RB depth to their roster, especially as Forsett will turn 30 in October.
He'll still get 1,000 yards, but not much more. He might also lose redzone work to a strong backup Lorenzo Taliaferro, who is much bigger than him.
Don't take Forsett over Mark Ingram or Frank Gore, whom can be had a little later in most drafts right now.
Randall Cobb - WR - Green Bay Packers - ADP: 19 overall, WR9
Everyone on the Packer offense is going to have another great fantasy year. Aaron Rodgers is just that good. Cobb knew what he was doing when he took a pay cut in order to stay in Green Bay and play for a team that has legitimate title chances year after year.
He'll be solid again as Rodgers' go-to-guy, but he himself has divulged that it will be hard for him to reach the 1,287 yards and 12 touchdowns of 2014.
Once again, nobody is projecting that Cobb is going to have a down fantasy year, but his ceiling is arguably lower than receivers that are being drafted after him such as Alshon Jeffrey (clearly the WR1 on his roster), T.Y.Hilton (clearly the WR1 on his roster), and Mike Evans (clearly WR1 on his roster).
The problem with Cobb is that he isn't necessarily needed to produce every week because of how much talent there is for the Packers. They could rely on Jordy Nelson, or Eddie Lacy, or even Davante Adams.
We saw last year that the Packers have the ability to close out games by half time, then run the ball until the end of the fourth. This doesn't mean that Cobb is a question mark; he is still a stud, but weekly volume is not always guaranteed.
He's just a tad overpriced considering the other WR talent and upside that is still on the board at Cobb's asking price.
Thanks for reading.
