Ever wonder how the 1st round draft picks pan out in week 1 on FanDuel? At first I was only concerned about their salary and production. But as I started putting it all together I became more interested in the number of fantasy points they scored, ownership percentages, and salary increase/decrease thereafter. How can this be applied headed into the 2016 NFL season? How contrarian is 1st round picks when looking at the ownership numbers? And do you really think playing a 1st round pick gives you an edge in DFS? These are the type of questions one must ask when putting your money on the line and creating projections for week 1 of the 2016 NFL season.
The Week 1 Numbers
The following table list the skill positions drafted in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft, their week 1 salary on Fanduel, actual fantasy points scored and their ownership percentage if I found it online.
|Pick||Team||Player||Pos||Week 1 Salary||Fantasy Points Scored||Value||% Ownership|
|1||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||Jameis Winston||QB||$6,900||16.2||2.3|
|2||Tennessee Titans||Marcus Mariota||QB||$7,100||24.96||3.5||0.96|
|4||Oakland Raiders||Amari Cooper||WR||$7,100||7.2||1|
|7||Chicago Bears||Kevin White||WR||na||na||na|
|10||St. Louis Rams||Todd Gurley||RB||$6,500||0||0|
|14||Miami Dolphins||DeVante Parker||WR||$5,400||0||0|
|15||San Diego Chargers||Melvin Gordon||RB||$7,100||6.2||0.9|
|20||Philadelphia Eagles||Nelson Agholor||WR||$5,500||1||0.2||5.6|
|26||Baltimore Ravens||Breshad Perriman||WR||$5,500||0||0|
|29||Indianapolis Colts||Phillip Dorsett||WR||$4,600||3.5||0.8|
Based on the Fanduel scoring system, Mariota was the third highest scoring quarterback in week 1. The 2nd pick of the 2015 NFL draft tossed 4 touchdowns and posted a 158.3 QB rating, which ended up being his highest QBR for the remainder of the season. Fanduel set his salary at $7,100 and his ownership was percentage was a tasty 0.96%. He scored 1.74 more fantasy points than Alex Smith who was a part of the winning week 1 Sunday Millions tournament and counted an extra $500 dollars against your salary cap.
Finding historical ownership percentages proved to be tough as I could only find 2 players numbers via Reddit and Fanduel. I'll make sure we do a better job recording and storing that for you this season. Rookie running backs and wide receivers are just so risky in week 1 but their ownership percentages were obviously advantageous. Nelson Agholor was listed around 5.6% ownership (insane) but that was because everybody and their mom with a blog was touting him as the best value play of the century. As usual, the expert picks just don't pan out in your favor. If anything they serve as players to avoid due to the following they have online, something I've said numerous times before.
The Price is Right?
Mariota posted recorded numbers when compared to all rookies that started week 1 since 2010. Table below courtesy Pro-Football-Reference.
The Running Back position was overpriced when considering the production of previous rookies in week 1, here's the table. The Wide Receiver position seemed under priced OVERALL when considering the production of previous rookies week 1, here's the table. Might be something to consider in the right player situation and at the right price. Which I assume is where everyone was coming from with Nelson Agholor in 2015.
Not a big breakdown but surly some things to keep in mind while preparing for the week 1 on FanDuel.