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NFL 1st Round Pick Performance & Salary on Fanduel

August 9, 2016 by Kurt Turner

Ever wonder how the 1st round draft picks pan out in week 1 on FanDuel? At first I was only concerned about their salary and production. But as I started putting it all together I became more interested in the number of fantasy points they scored, ownership percentages, and salary increase/decrease thereafter. How can this be applied headed into the 2016 NFL season? How contrarian is 1st round picks when looking at the ownership numbers? And do you really think playing a 1st round pick gives you an edge in DFS? These are the type of questions one must ask when putting your money on the line and creating projections for week 1 of the 2016 NFL season.

The Week 1 Numbers

The following table list the skill positions drafted in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft, their week 1 salary on Fanduel, actual fantasy points scored and their ownership percentage if I found it online.

Pick Team Player Pos Week 1 Salary Fantasy Points Scored Value % Ownership
1  Tampa Bay Buccaneers  Jameis Winston  QB $6,900 16.2 2.3
2  Tennessee Titans  Marcus Mariota  QB $7,100 24.96 3.5 0.96
4  Oakland Raiders  Amari Cooper  WR $7,100 7.2 1
7  Chicago Bears  Kevin White  WR na na na
10  St.  Louis Rams  Todd Gurley  RB $6,500 0 0
14  Miami Dolphins  DeVante Parker  WR $5,400 0 0
15  San Diego Chargers  Melvin Gordon  RB $7,100 6.2 0.9
20  Philadelphia Eagles  Nelson Agholor  WR $5,500 1 0.2 5.6
26  Baltimore Ravens  Breshad Perriman  WR $5,500 0 0
29  Indianapolis Colts  Phillip Dorsett  WR $4,600 3.5 0.8

Highlights

Based on the Fanduel scoring system, Mariota was the third highest scoring quarterback in week 1. The 2nd pick of the 2015 NFL draft tossed 4 touchdowns and posted a 158.3 QB rating, which ended up being his highest QBR for the remainder of the season. Fanduel set his salary at $7,100 and his ownership was percentage was a tasty 0.96%. He scored 1.74 more fantasy points than Alex Smith who was a part of the winning week 1 Sunday Millions tournament and counted an extra $500 dollars against your salary cap.

Ownership Percentages

Finding historical ownership percentages proved to be tough as I could only find 2 players numbers via Reddit and Fanduel. I'll make sure we do a better job recording and storing that for you this season. Rookie running backs and wide receivers are just so risky in week 1 but their ownership percentages were obviously advantageous. Nelson Agholor was listed around 5.6% ownership (insane) but that was because everybody and their mom with a blog was touting him as the best value play of the century. As usual, the expert picks just don't pan out in your favor. If anything they serve as players to avoid due to the following they have online, something I've said numerous times before.

The Price is Right?

Mariota posted recorded numbers when compared to all rookies that started week 1 since 2010. Table below courtesy Pro-Football-Reference.

Rk Player Year G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Rate
1 Marcus Mariota 2015 1 13 15 209 4 0 158.3
2 Derek Carr 2014 1 20 32 151 2 0 94.7
3 Robert Griffin 2012 1 19 26 320 2 0 139.9
4 EJ Manuel 2013 1 18 27 150 2 0 105.5
5 Cam Newton 2011 1 24 37 422 2 1 110.4
6 Jameis Winston 2015 1 16 33 210 2 2 64
7 Sam Bradford 2010 1 32 55 253 1 3 53.1
8 Andy Dalton 2011 1 10 15 81 1 0 102.4
9 Andrew Luck 2012 1 23 45 309 1 3 52.9
10 Geno Smith 2013 1 24 38 256 1 1 80.6
11 Russell Wilson 2012 1 18 34 153 1 1 62.5
12 Jimmy Clausen 2010 1 0 2 0 0 0 39.6
13 Tyler Murphy 2015 1 0 0 0 0 0
14 Ryan Tannehill 2012 1 20 36 219 0 3 39
15 Tim Tebow 2010 1 0 0 0 0 0
16 Brandon Weeden 2012 1 12 35 118 0 4 5.1

The Running Back position was overpriced when considering the production of previous rookies in week 1, here's the table. The Wide Receiver position seemed under priced OVERALL when considering the production of previous rookies week 1, here's the table. Might be something to consider in the right  player situation and at the right price. Which I assume is where everyone was coming from with Nelson Agholor in 2015.

Not a big breakdown but surly some things to keep in mind while preparing for the week 1 on FanDuel.

Category - Daily Fantasy Football - NFL 1st Round Pick Performance & Salary on Fanduel

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About Kurt Turner

Kurt's fantasy advice is featured on USA Today Sports, Bleacher Reports, SiriusXM and Fox Sports. He is the owner of FantasyKnuckleheads.com and has been butchering topics here for over 15 years. Follow him on Twitter

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