We're working on an ownership projection model that is accurate and reliable. Once it's complete we will add it within our optimal lineup tool. Until then, I'll post ownership in the format below. Headed into week 4 let's talk about chalk and sneak plays. The chalk plays are the players I project will be owned by more than 25 percent of the field. Lower owned players are our sneak plays. Some cash game people like the higher ownership players thinking it keeps them in the money, somehow. A lot of the DFS community is trying to own the lower owned players, especially important in GPP tournaments.
Let's Get Chalky
- Melvin Gordon vs NO is going to be a big target this week. I'll also have about 33% exposure to him in cash and GPP.
- Jordan Howard vs a lazy Detroit run defense is another solid play. His price on both DraftKings and FanDuel ensures a chalk play in all formats.
- Demaryius Thomas at Tampa may not be as high of an ownership as one would suspect. But the match-up comparisons all lead me to believe DT is in store for a solid outing for an overly low price point. More week 4 bargain/value picks here.
- Travis Benjamin vs NO is a no duh type play. Expected ownership percentage is around 30%. Do I even need to list the players versus the Saints defense this week?
- Greg Olsen at ALT is another chalk play this week. This won't happen against Carolina, in fact I think the Panthers dominate field position putting Olsen in the red zone enough to warrant his step salary.
- Josh Lambo vs Saints - need I say more? His low salary puts him firmly in the upper tier of ownership percentage.
Ownership Ranking Based on Projected Ownership Percentage
The highest ranking ownership is projected to be the highest owned.
| Quarterback | Ownership Ranking | Upside / Target Him |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | |
| Cam Newton | 2 | |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | Yes |
| Dak Prescott | 5 | |
| Brian Hoyer | 6 | |
| Andy Dalton | 7 | |
| Blake Bortles | 8 | |
| Joe Flacco | 9 | Yes |
| Trevor Siemian | 10 | |
| Drew Brees | 11 | Yes |
| Sam Bradford | 12 | |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 13 | |
| Derek Carr | 14 | |
| Ryan Tannehill | 15 | |
| Andrew Luck | 16 | |
| Alex Smith | 17 | |
| Matt Ryan | 18 | |
| Brock Osweiler | 19 | |
| Jameis Winston | 20 | |
| Carson Palmer | 21 | Yes |
| Running Back | Ownership Ranking | Upside / Target Him |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | |
| Jordan Howard | 2 | |
| Lamar Miller | 3 | |
| David Johnson | 4 | |
| LeGarrette Blount | 5 | |
| Carlos Hyde | 6 | Yes |
| Le'Veon Bell | 7 | |
| Jeremy Hill | 8 | |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 10 | |
| Mark Ingram | 11 | Yes |
| Theo Riddick | 12 | |
| DeMarco Murray | 13 | |
| Spencer Ware | 14 | |
| Christine Michael | 15 | Yes |
| Charles Sims | 16 | |
| Matt Jones | 17 | |
| C.J. Anderson | 18 | Yes |
| Isaiah Crowell | 19 | |
| Frank Gore | 20 | |
| Giovani Bernard | 21 | |
| Devonta Freeman | 22 | |
| Orleans Darkwa | 23 | |
| Tevin Coleman | 24 | |
| Jerick McKinnon | 25 | |
| Latavius Murray | 26 | |
| LeSean McCoy | 27 | Yes |
| T.J. Yeldon | 28 | |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 29 | |
| DeAngelo Williams | 30 | |
| Todd Gurley | 31 | |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 32 | |
| Duke Johnson | 33 | Yes |
| Wide Receiver | Ownership Ranking | Upside / Target Him |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | |
| Terrelle Pryor | 2 | |
| Tyrell Williams | 3 | |
| Travis Benjamin | 4 | Yes |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 5 | |
| Antonio Brown | 6 | |
| T.Y. Hilton | 7 | |
| Cole Beasley | 8 | Yes |
| Jamison Crowder | 9 | Yes |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 10 | |
| Allen Robinson | 11 | Yes |
| Will Fuller | 12 | |
| Stefon Diggs | 13 | |
| Amari Cooper | 14 | |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 15 | |
| Steve Smith | 16 | Yes |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 17 | |
| Allen Hurns | 18 | |
| Alshon Jeffery | 19 | |
| Jeremy Maclin | 20 | Yes |
| Mike Wallace | 21 | Yes |
| Doug Baldwin | 23 | |
| DeSean Jackson | 24 | |
| Brandin Cooks | 25 | |
| Mike Evans | 26 | |
| Michael Crabtree | 27 | |
| Michael Thomas | 29 | Yes |
| Golden Tate | 30 | |
| Demaryius Thomas | 31 | |
| Phillip Dorsett | 32 | |
| Sterling Shepard | 33 | |
| Tajae Sharpe | 34 | |
| Kevin White | 35 | |
| John Brown | 36 | |
| Quincy Enunwa | 37 | |
| Terrance Williams | 38 | |
| Brice Butler | 39 | |
| Odell Beckham | 40 | |
| Ted Ginn | 41 | |
| Quinton Patton | 42 | |
| Brandon Coleman | 43 | |
| Anquan Boldin | 44 | |
| Julio Jones | 45 | |
| Willie Snead | 46 | |
| Julian Edelman | 47 | |
| Kenny Stills | 48 | |
| Tight End | Ownership Ranking | Upside / Target Him |
| Zach Miller | 1 | |
| Coby Fleener | 2 | |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | |
| Jordan Reed | 5 | Yes |
| Kyle Rudolph | 6 | Yes |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | Yes |
| Dion Sims | 8 | |
| Dennis Pitta | 9 | |
| Jason Witten | 10 | Yes |
| Jack Doyle | 11 | |
| Julius Thomas | 12 | |
| Jacob Tamme | 13 | |
| Dwayne Allen | 14 | |
| Eric Ebron | 15 | Yes |
| Jesse James | 16 | |
| Martellus Bennett | 17 | |
| Gary Barnidge | 18 | |
| Delanie Walker | 19 | Yes |
| Jimmy Graham | 20 | Yes |
| Defense | Ownership Ranking | Upside / Target Him |
| Redskins | 1 | |
| Vikings | 2 | |
| Broncos | 3 | Yes |
| Cardinals | 4 | Yes |
| Texans | 5 | |
| Patriots | 6 | |
| 49ers | 7 | |
| Colts | 8 | Yes |
| Jets | 9 | |
| Seahawks | 10 | |
| Panthers | 11 | Yes |
