The NFL Draft is a little over a month away, but mock drafts have been going on for the past several months. With the NFL's player lock out scenario, we have a definite risk of no football this season, though obviously we are all hoping this is not the case. Because the now defunct NFL Player's union has called for a boycott of the draft, it's no secret that the CBA negotiations are going to get very ugly in the coming future before things begin to improve. Still, the show must go on for the NFL draft, where coaches and GM's will be busy at the war room as always, looking to add depth and franchise building blocks as if the status quo in football is just peachy. To see individual team needs broken down, check out our 2011 NFL Mock Draft page for your team's needs addressed in a more in-depth fashion. In my mock draft, I'll only be covering rounds one through three. In all honestly I'd have to hire someone to get any more in depth than that, and there aren't likely to be any impact players after the third round anyway. All selections I make assume two very dangerous things:
- That every single decision maker is making a carefully calculated, responsible decision for his franchise. With the likes of Al Davis, Dan Snyder, and Jerry Jones around, this will not always happen.
- That every prospect will pan out. Not only is it impossible to tell who will bust and who will not before it happens, but it's pretty useless for me to arbitrarily decide who will succeed and who will not when trying to objectively evaluate potential impact rookies.
Links to each team's needs broken down more specifically will be added as the analysis gets published, in case you're interested in checking it out. So without further ado, I present to you the first installment of my mock draft.
ROUND ONE
Carolina (1): Cam Newton, QB, Auburn- Carolina needs a quarterback. Many may argue over whether or not Newton's game will translate to the NFL, but the facts dictate that Newton is a winner with good wheels and a big arm. Jimmy Clausen does not have the intangibles to lead the franchise in the right direction, and if all goes well Newton could end up like an even more mobile Ben Roethlisberger. Unless your team has someone named Brees, Brady, Manning, Rodgers, or Roethlisberger under center, who wouldn't want that?
- Denver is moving to a base 4-3 defense under new head coach John Fox. What's wrong with this? They don't have the depth or the talent in place to do this. They absolutely have to take Dareus, the top defensive line talent, with the second pick. To make the 4-3 work, they are also going to need to add one or two more defensive tackles in the draft.
- Buffalo has a ton of holes to fill, and cornerback really isn't their biggest need. However, they give up too many yards and points and they are facing depleted depth at the position. Peterson is reportedly one of the best talents to come along at corner in a long time, so it won't hurt the Bills to take him at three.
- The Bengals will be facing the tough task of building an entire offense from scratch. Carson Palmer has vowed never to play for the Bengals again, although his play is overrated so this may have a huge silver lining to it. The TOcho show was an abysmal failure and the team shouldn't be counting on either wide receiver coming back. Palmer is under contract for next season, so they may have some leverage in that situation. But both Owens and OchoCinco are ready to walk out the door, so the Bengals need to give their quarterback (be that Palmer or someone else) something to work with.
- The Cardinals desperately need a quarterback, but with Ken Wisenhunt on the hot seat, he won't be risking his job with a rookie signal caller. Instead they may pursue a more experienced or talented quarterback like Vince Young, Kevin Kolb, or Donovan McNabb. Arizona had a terrible pass rush last year, and taking A&M's Von Miller would go a long ways in improving that.
- Like Denver, the Browns are moving to a 4-3 defense but have very little in the way of talent on their front seven. Colt McCoy would be thrilled to get a toy like AJ Green or Julio Jones, but the Browns have more pressing needs at the moment.
- Out of all the teams in need of a quarterback, I feel that the 49ers are the most likely to overpay in a trade and send a first round draft pick to Philly for Kevin Kolb. If they don't do that, they may be willing to take one last look at Alex Smith. San Fran really needs to improve their pass rush, so in the end I see them taking Robert Quinn here and ignoring their quarterback situation.
- The Titans were really gift-wrapped Gabbert, who I think will be passed up by three teams who each have legitimate reasons for taking the Mizzou standout. Tennessee is in dire need of a new, more mature signal-caller, and need look no further than Gabbert.
- I know I am trying to make the best decision for each team, but Jerry Jones doesn't seem to believe that the cornerback situation is something for Dallas to be worried about. Many experts disagree, but then again Jones is delusional, or this could be his attempt at something clever. The Cowboys really should take Prince Amukamara, but if they aren't going to consider it then I'll add a touch of realism to my overly-idealistic mock draft and give them J.J. Watt. The Cowboys need an upgrade over Igor Olshansky anyways.
- Santana Moss is scheduled to hit free agency. This leaves Anthony Armstrong as Washington's most talented skill position player. Taking Jones is a no-brainer and there's really not much more to be said.
- Shifting to the 3-4 defense, Houston is going to need a rush linebacker to complement Connor Barwin. Robert Quinn is off the board, which leaves Smith as the top outside pass rusher available. Unless they decide to take the best player available, who at this point is Prince Amukamara, Houston's guy should be Smith.
- The Vikings get a gift here as they desperately need cornerback help and a few teams on the clock before decided to fill bigger needs even though they could use the help also. Amukamara should be suiting up for Dallas, and because he is believed to be just barely behind Patrick Peterson, Dallas will regret not taking Amukamara when they see him play.
- For too long Detroit has neglected their need for major offensive line improvements. Now Matt Stafford is paying for it and the front office is starting to learn their lesson. Unless he's off the board, there is virtually a 100% chance that this pick is Tyron Smith, the top offensive tackle in this draft.
- The Rams badly need receiver help, but with Green and Jones off the board there's not much to pick from right now. Instead they can steal Bowers, who is good enough to have gone much earlier, and get an upgrade across from Chris Long.
- For all practical purposes, we can safely assume that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are dead. The Dolphins should let both go with no regrets and start looking to the future. They should be thrilled to have Mark Ingram available here, as he should be a real beast and help improve Miami's stagnant offense.
- Jacksonville loves talented, locker room leader, hard-working character types like Ryan Kerrigan. Even more convenient is that the Jaguars have basically nothing in the way of a pass rush. GM Gene Smith will be very happy to fill a glaring need with a player in the mold that they look for.
- The Patriots, like the Jaguars, have a mostly unproductive pass rush. Jermaine Cunningham may hopefully blossom into a very capable sack artist, but last year backup Tully Banta Cain led the team with 5 sacks. This is inexcusable for a team like New England that has Super Bowl aspirations, and they will use this draft to acquire multiple pass rushers. Selecting Cal's Cameron Jordan assures the team will not need to endure another year of Gerard Warren starting at end.
- The Chargers badly need an upgrade on their defensive front seven. Clayborn is an explosive talent but he has some pretty big personality issues. However, Phil Rivers and Vincent Jackson don't exactly come to mind when one thinks of high-character team players, so this may be a non-issue to the Bolts. They should get great play out of Clayborn but need to be prepared to put up with some major headaches.
- William Beatty has struggled to handle left tackle in the short amount of time with the Giants, and without a lot of major needs to worry about, the Giants can address this issue by taking Solder, one of the top offensive line prospects in this draft class.
- Tampa Bay needs a lot of help on their front seven to aid Gerald McCoy in the pass rush. Wilkerson may not be considered elite-level talent like Quinn, Bowers, or Clayborn, but he is one of the best options left and his stock has been on the rise as of late. Cam Heyward is more talented and a plausible pick, but because of health issues it's likely that Heyward will fall into the early second round.
- The Chiefs are in need of something at nose tackle to keep teams from running all over them. Phil Taylor, who has done nothing but impress at his Pro Day, Combine, and Senior Bowl, would give Kansas City a solution to their biggest problem with the front seven. Like Vince Wilfork, Taylor is huge but quick, athletic, and with good feet. Kansas City will have no regrets going in this direction.
- Peyton Manning might be able to make any rag-tag group of receivers look good, but we've been starting to see that he can only go as far as his offensive line takes him. The play Indy has been getting out of their line is unacceptable, especially with Manning ready to become the highest paid player in the game. Charlie Johnson in particular needs to replaced, and they can't go wrong with the athletic Anthony Castonzo.
- Like the Colts, Philly's biggest problem has become their offensive line, which gave up way too many sacks last year. Gabe Carimi is a great fit for the Eagles to alleviate this problem.
- New Orleans doesn't have a lot of holes, but you can never have too many pass rushers. The Saints were making a push for Jerry Hughes last year but were beat out by the Colts. Houston is a pretty similar prospect, so it's not the least bit unlikely that they see what they can get out of Houston.
- The Seahawks really need to improve their secondary. Jimmy Smith is very talented but has raised worries about his character after not only testing positive for drug use but lying about how many times he's been arrested. Pete Carroll probably won't care though, as not only does he lack a squeaky-clean track record himself, but he needs to improve his team however he can. Seattle simply gives up too many yards to be picky over Smith.
- Baltimore gave up the second-most sacks in the league last year, a no-no if they want to protect their investment in Joe Flacco. Jared Gaither will be a free agent and Michael Oher will be moving back to left tackle. This leaves a big hole at right tackle, which the Ravens appear to be interested in filling with Miss. State's Derek Sherrod.
- Outside of Roddy White, Matty Ice doesn't have too many good options who can catch passes. To keep the Falcons from getting too one dimensional, this has to change. Smith had a great Combine, running a 4.36 40 and a 41-inch vertical. Can you imagine the kind of issues opposing defenses would have with this added dimension? Other corners couldn't even handle Roddy White on his own, just wait until they trot out somebody like this opposite White.
- After Stephen Neal retired this offseason, the Pats are in the market for a guard. Pouncey, athletic and a great blocker, fills the positional need. Also known as a great locker room presence and character guy, the Florida Gator is just the kind of player that gets noticed by Bill Belichick.
- The Bears really need to upgrade their offensive line to protect Jay Cutler, but with all the elite prospects gone the Bears may as well get a replacement for Tommie Harris, who was released following his disappointing season. Liuget won't be available in later rounds, but they will still be able to find quality blockers later.
- With both Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards reaching free agency, the Jets need a backup plan because they most likely won't be retaining both. Baldwin is big, quick, and talented, and most importantly has better hands than the inconsistent Edwards.
- The Steelers don't have a lot of immediate needs, but it wouldn't hurt them at all to take Wilson, the top inside linebacker in the draft, and start grooming him to replace James Farrior.
- Cobb is an explosive all-around guy like Dexter McCluster. He can be a pass catcher, he can be a running back, and he can contribute on special teams. James Jones is a free agent and Donald Driver doesn't have a whole lot left in the tank, so it would be beneficial for the Pack to plug in Cobb as a kind of d0-it-all solution to keep Greg Jennings from having to shoulder too much of the offensive load.