Headed into the 2019 fantasy football draft I'm crossing draft bust off my cheat sheet because of their inflated ADP. Avoiding draft busts is a major key to draft success. Winning your fantasy league is about ensuring your early draft picks are reliable and not a liability. I'm looking for weekly consitency in the early rounds. If possible I avoid players on teams with coaching changes or personnel changes that could impact dynamics on the field. In the early rounds I like to limit risk while in the mid to late rounds I look for value and upside picks.
The Top 10 Players to Avoid In 2019
- Derrick Henry - He wasn't consistent at all last season and that's not what we're looking for in a 2nd round pick. Late 3rd is the most I'd pay.
- Todd Gurley - As if his injury history wasn't concerning enough the the Rams drafted a scat back to take 3rd down duties. Mid to late 2nd is the most I'd pay.
- Le'Veon Bell - He leaves behind a top tier QB and offensive line to join one of the worse offensive lines and a 2nd year QB. Late 2nd is the most I'd pay.
- Sony Michel - The Pats drafted Damien Harris in the 3rd, and Michel was already fairly game script dependent. I'd take him in the 6th round, 2 rounds after his current ADP.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster - JuJu won me a ton of money last season but to call him a 2nd round pick is asking for trouble. JuJu enjoyed coverage last season from lesser corners. With Brown gone I'm pretty sure opposing defenses will have a better chance limiting JuJu. He's a player I'm avoiding in 2019 at his current ADP. He's a late 3rd to 4th round pick in my book.
- Amari Cooper - In terms of the quarterbacks progression sure, Cooper is a WR1. Late 4th is all I'd pay and that's pushing it. I'm done waiting for Cooper to be all he can be. And the big games he post here and there are not enough to justify him in the 3rd round.
- Sammy Watkins - Watkins has dropped to the 7th/8th round of fantasy football drafts because people are done waiting for him to breakout. Are you still waiting for him to breakout? I'll pass here completely, avoid!
- Cooper Kupp - Not only is he coming off a recent ACL tear but he has to compete with Woods and Cooks for targets. He will be inconsistent plus he comes with re-injury risk. Higher upside picks exist in the mid rounds that don't come with the same competition or risk.
- Damien Williams - As much as I want Williams to succeed we can't ignore the fact he has never carried the load for a full season. He has already hurt his hamstring in camp which knocks him down at least 5 spots in my book. I'd take him in the 3rd round, not the 2nd where he is currently being drafted.
- Javis Landry - I've been a fan of Landry since he was paired with Odell at LSU. Unfortunately I foresee a future where he continues to be ignored in the red-zone. And I guarantee his weekly targets become so sporadic that he is no where near worth a 5th/6th round draft pick. This is because of all the talent in Cleveland competing for touches on the weekly basis. We could make a case for Landry in the 6th round of PPR leagues but I'll pass due to Odell, Hunt, Duke, Chubb and Njoku competing for touches. He's a 7th round pick at best in PPR leagues and you'll probably only start him in certain situations.
Now I know a lot of seasoned pro's will read this article and think I'm crazy. You'll knock my criteria or have a bullish stance on some of the players I'm avoiding in 2019. But my goal isn't to get all my predictions correct. My goal is to limit risk so I have a better chance to win coming out of the draft. For custom cheat sheets and my personal sleeper list please take a look at my 2019 draft guide. I created that cheat sheet system 10 years ago to help me during my drafts and we've been helping people like you ever since.