Last week was the first week I wrote about my own personal lineups, so to keep myself accountable, I will do a brief recap on the following week. This is to keep myself honest and also give you the reader a better idea of whether or not you care what I have to say.
Last week I went with Drew Brees, Ronnie Hillman, LeSean McCoy, Martavis Bryant, Julio Jones, Brandin Cooks, Jimmy Graham, Kelvin Benjamin and Seahawks D. Hillman got hurt, McCoy and the Seahawks D struggled, but the rest of this lineup tore it up for 20+ points each and I finished with 163.08 points for a successful DK week. The tournament upside did not materialize with my running backs struggling, but money is money and I hit pay dirt in 50/50s so I’m calling it a win.
This week, my lineup has some extra risk, but a ton more upside. Let’s take a look:
QB – Aaron Rodgers $9400
RB – Mark Ingram $6200
RB – Ryan Mathews $4500
WR – Jordy Nelson $7700
WR – Julio Jones $7000
WR – Kelvin Benjamin $4900
TE – Travis Kelce $4000
FLEX – Mychal Rivera $3100
DEF – Cardinals $2800
Total Spent: $49600, $400 remaining
QB: Aaron Rodgers vs PHI - $9400
Rodgers has thrown 15 touchdowns and zero interceptions at home this season. The Eagles will actually make this competitive, unlike the Bears, which means Rodgers might actually get a full game of stats!
RB1: Mark Ingram vs CIN - $6200
Ingram is a man possessed right now and has touched the ball no less than 25 times per game over the last three weeks. With Khiry and Pierre still ailing, Ingram has very little competition for meaningful touches and the Bengals have been poor against the run. Ingram should run amok at home.
RB2: Ryan Mathews vs OAK - $4500
This is my big risk of the week. Finally back and fully healthy, there just aren’t running backs this good at this price point that I know will get 15-20 touches and play against a softer than tissue paper run defense. That said, by playing Mathews you do run the risk of him spontaneously combusting at any point, so I do have two other options if you disagree with this pick. On a normal week, I’d prefer Rashad Jennings for an extra $200 dollars, but it’s a tough matchup and I’m not as sure that Jennings is as healthy as Mathews is right now. In that same game, you can also go the Frank Gore rout for the same price as Mathews, but his floor is abysmal. Should he run all over the Giants? Yeah. Will he? I don’t have a clue. I’m rolling with Mathews. He’s burned tons of fantasy owners in the past so I understand the hesitation and desire for alternatives, but C.J. Anderson went for 163 total yards and a score last week, I’ll take my chances.
WR1: Jordy Nelson vs PHI - $7700
Jordy has a touchdown catch in every game at Lambeau thus far this season. The way Rodgers is throwing, you have to stack him with either Nelson or Cobb. They’ll both get in the endzone, but I think Nelson has slightly higher upside in home games.
WR2: Julio Jones at CAR - $7000
Julio got me (and hopefully all of you) 22.9 DK points without getting in the endzone last week. He probably would have had a much bigger day if Ryan didn’t underthrow him on a seam route for an easy 48-yard touchdown. Julio is a good bet to go for 6+ catches and 90+ yards as a floor on any given week, and the way the Panthers secondary is playing, I think he’ll out produce last week’s point total for just an extra $400 of your budget.
WR3: Kelvin Benjamin vs ATL - $4900
This game has two of the most abysmal defenses in the NFL right now. Even though he struggled through three quarters and change last week, Kelvin still finished with two fourth quarter touchdowns. The targets are there EVERY game and even if Cam can’t hit the broadside of a barn for the majority of the day, Kelvin will find a way to make some monstrous plays.
TE: Travis Kelce vs SEA - $4000
My everlasting bromance for Julio aside, Kelce has been the apple of my eye since prior to the preseason starting. He is a freak of nature with Gronk-like measurables on an offense devoid of receivers with a quarterback that can’t throw more than five yards down field. This was my gem for the year, the Jimmy Graham pick of 2011. Alas, I failed to remember one small detail: Andy Reid is the one calling plays. Any other coach, Kelce would be in the Graham, Julius, Gronk conversation for the best tight end in football right now. Luckily for you, he’s only $4000 this week going up against a team that bleeds points to the tight end while dominating wide receivers and stymying running backs even with the talent of Jamaal Charles. If the Chiefs have any shot of keeping this game a game, Reid will have to get his most talented pass-catcher the ball early and often. Bonus point: Fasano may miss this tilt, which means even more snaps for Kelce! Upside galore on this one.
FLEX: Mychal Rivera at OAK - $3100
I’ll take 8+ targets for $3100 any week. Sure, Mark might make fun of me on our podcast for going double tight end (even though he does it every week after advising me not to), but Rivera has seen no less than eight targets over the last three weeks and has averaged seven catches over that span. The matchup is much tougher than the last two against the Seahawks and Broncos, but Rivera should have no issue getting double-digits as his floor this week. For this price, double-digits will do nicely.
DEF: Cardinals vs DET $2800
Not the best matchup on paper, but the price is fantastic and the Cardinals are starting to get into a groove on defense. The Lions will score, but Stafford is always prone to turning the ball over so I’m taking the massive upside for the basement price this week.