This is a hot week for shootout's as there are five games on Sunday's main slate with over/unders of 48 or higher. Plenty of points to be scored via the passing game which means we need to figure out which receivers will benefit the most in each shootout. I've made an adjustment to the week 13 heat-map to include allowed rushing stats. You can use this to help identify funnel defenses that are so good at stopping the run you just know where the offense is going to produce fantasy points. You should use this heat map in combination with our receiver target stats to identify trending players if you're in full PPR leagues. For those of you playing DFS this is the best single tool I use to identify which receiver is going to have increased production. I write them down then load them into our DFS optimal lineup tool to create winning lineups.
You'll also like our week 13 projected ownership rates for FanDuel.
Top 3 Tight Ends to Target
- Zach Ertz: He hasn't been the most productive TE this season, but in GPP tournaments (or waiver wire) you're looking for an outlier. He's a solid punt play with a solid chance of hitting 3x value. This week Ertz faces the Bengals. As the heat map demonstrates, opposing offenses heavily target the TE position when facing the Bengals and have found success more often than not. I'm not using him in cash games but he's a solid GPP play and only needs a single TD to pay off big in week 13.
- Travis Kelce: Atlanta is another team that struggles against TE's. KC is sure to be playing from behind in this one and Kelce is sure to be high ownership.
- Jermaine Gresham: He has scored a touchdown in back to back weeks and has a very favorable matchup this week against Washington. As seen in the heat map, Washington gives up more receptions and yards (combined) to opposing tight ends than any other team in the NFL.
- Bonus 4th pick: Jimmy Graham, no duh pick and yes the heat map loves him.
Top 3 Running Backs to Target
- Spencer Ware: This is the best PPR back to own this week in GPP tournaments. Atlanta has given up the most targets (10) and yards (60) to the running backs position this season. Atlanta has also given up the 3rd most fantasy points to the RB position and allows 4.2 yards per carry. Very sweet spot for Ware!
- Todd Gurley: Not a sexy pick, but NE is the second best PPR RB matchup on the heat map. The Rams have improved on offense with their recent QB change so taking a chance in GPP tournaments on DraftKings could pay dividends.
- Theo Riddick: Most teams score on New Orleans via the passing game and the heat map is screaming Riddick. I'd play Riddick in any format this week.
Top 3 Wide Receivers to Target
- Larry Fitzgerald did us wrong last week. But the heat map doesn't lie, his match-up this week is superb. Look for a bounce back and perhaps some touchdown regression.
- Eli Rodgers is a nice punt play this week. The Giants give up an insane amount of points to the 3rd WR and if DHB is limited again look for Rodgers to have his shot at some big plays. Obviously a risky play but the heat map doesn't lie, limit your exposure.
- Chris Hogan or Malcolm Michell: The heat-map pegs the Rams as weak against the WR2. I like Michell more than Hogan as the later could experience an in game set back. Look for the Rams to focus on stopping the run more than usual with Tom Brady and his receiving core limited in health.
The Heat Map
