Once again, creating a list of optimal picks based on this heat map helped me double up last week. The heat map shows you where the optimal DFS plays are each week. Grab 25 to 30 optimal picks and use those in our optimal lineup tool.
The lower end of the chart will always have some of the best passing/receiving match-ups. The very last column in the chart is the schedule adjusted run defense ranking, very helpful for picking the best RB. This is also helpful when choosing the best receiving match-ups when the rush defense rankings is red or yellow. This means you're looking at a funnel defense, like Green Bay. I also like to look at the TD allowed column when choosing which position has the best chance of scoring. If you're playing a GPP tournament, look at the "big play" column to help you narrow down that 100+ yard upside pick.
How To Read The Heat Map
- Green means the defense is allowing a lot of points, yardage and/or touchdowns etc. Red means the defense is stingy / strong. Yellow means the defense is average.
- For the rows that use blue and orange, blue means "cold" and orange means "hot". Cold is bad - hot is good - when picking your players.
- You read the chart from the middle out. Start with the games with the best Vegas Odds then look at the opponents (DST) fantasy points allowed (defense vs pos).
- Looking at the "defense vs pos" column you can see where that defense is bleeding points. Then you can get more granular and use columns B thru K to see which receiver type is most advantageous. This is especially useful for TE and receiving RB production levels!
- RecBP/G: The number of big plays allowed on average per game. Big Plays are plays of more than 20 yards.
- RecTD: This is the average number of big plays per game times the average number TD's allowed per game.
- Recp/G: This is the average number of receptions allowed per game.
- TotUp: Total upside is a measure of the previous 3 columns.
- In touchdown only league you'll want to may more attention to RecTDup. In PPR leagues you'll want to focus on Recp/G. When playing DFS tournaments I like TotUp.
- WR1/WR2/WR3/TE/RB: This pin points where the defense bleeds fantasy points the most, on average.
- DVR: This is based on schedule adjusted metrics and doesn't always align with WR1/WR2/WR3/ETC. I prefer the players that face a defense with a positive DVR and WR1/2/3 etc - they need to align somewhat and the closer they align the better.
- Vegas Odds: We only care about fantasy points. Vegas is pretty darn good at estimating the outcome of NFL games. The "Offense Odds" is broken down as spread / over under / implied points. I explain how to utilize the Vegas odds when playing fantasy football here. But one over arching rule is implied points, you usually want players on teams with an implied team total of 25 or higher. I highlight the best odds in the chart below.
- While looking at each match-up create a list of upside players to use later when building lineups. This is easy to do with our optimal lineup tool.
Here's The Heat Map
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