Week 1 Results
Last week I had some very divided results on my suggested flex plays. Divided to the tune of a complete 50/50 split.
Hits: Michael Gallup, Emmanuel Sanders, DK Metcalf, Greg Olsen, Tyrell Williams
Misses: Matt Breida, Jordan Howard, Dante Pettis, Rashaad Penny, Justin Jackson
Week 1 is kind of like a first date. You've been there before, you think you know what to expect, but every decision is made with crushing anxiety and results are mixed from one exteme to the other. Regardless of the emotional toll it takes, the only option to find success is to get back on the horse and open yourself to another round of exposure.
With that, here are my Week 2 Flex Plays:
Doubling Down On Matt Breida
Week 1 I took a K on my Matt Breida call. Tampa Bay held the man to 37 yards on 15 rushing attempts. After the hype behind Breida as a week 1 go to in the flex, followed by a miserable fantasy output, many are raising the white flag in surrender and relegating Breida to stand by duties on their bench. While falling short against what has been considered a subpar Buccaneers defensive unit sure was uninspiring. It should instill some compassion that the same Defense just held Christian McCaffrey to 37 yards rushing on 16 attempts.
The silver lining in all this for Matt Breida's week 2 outlook is that he tallied a touch on over 50% of his snaps. Tevin Coleman is out for the forseeable future with a high ankle sprain. Breida should be the rushing spearhead before Raheem Mostert in Kyle Shanahan's game plan against the Cincinnati rush defense. Cincinnati just allowed Chris Carson to total 24 PPR points in their week 1 matchup.
Tyrell Williams Scoffs at Fantasy ADP
As a staunch Tyrell Williams advocate all offseason, I was thrilled to see him thrive in his first opportunity as Oakland's WR1. Inexplicably Williams was available post 12th round in fantasy drafts. Those that consistently invested in his services are going to reap a veritable treasure chest of fantasy rewards in the 2019 season.
Williams' tally of 7 receptions, 105 yards, and a TD was no fluke. He succeeded in this role as a Charger during Keenan Allen's lost years to ACL tears and is now poised to do it again as a Raider. In their second week of NFL action the Raider's fantasy matchup coudn't be more tantalizing. Derek Carr and Tyrell Williams will be facing a KC unit that just bled 356 passing yards and 3 TD's. That included 275 yards and 2 TD's to backup rookie QB Gardner Minshew. Doubt Williams at your own risk.
Jamison Crowder To Glow In PPR Settings
Sam Darnold is shelved with the kissing disease (strange times in New York). While backup Trevor Siemian drastically reduces Gang Green's opportunity for victory, he should be great for Crowder's stock in PPR.
With Darnold under center in week 1 Crowder was targeted a ridiculous 17 times! He converted those looks into 14 receptions. Even with what will likely again be a pallor ADOT average, heavy utilization will leave him as a high floor option with 8 receptions for 65 yards a fair projection. Denzel Ward will be busy shadowing Robby Anderson. As a result Crowder will have the luxury of facing the very beatable coverage of T.J. Carrie.
Miles Sanders Set to Cook ATL Defense
It wasn't a great start to Sander's young career in week 1. It is also always a risky proposition to suggest a PHI RB that is inevitably confined to the carousel of a Doug Pederson RBBC. There are encouraging signs we can pull from last weeks contest. Sander's was given 13 opportunities and logically we should expect the second round investment to gain snap share as the season moves forward.
Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattision burned the ATL rush defense for 169 yards and 2 scores last week. So the grounds should be fertile for the Eagles RB's who will always have some cushion as defenders will be forced to acknowledge the Philly pass threat. Game script will Favor Sanders and Darren Sproles as they are the more apt pass catching RB's over Jordan Howard. Likely you drafted Sanders at a point that warrants flex consideration. Weeks 2's matchup provides as good of time to start as he will receive all season.
John Brown Looks to Continue Throwing Smoke in the Meadowlands
Janoris Jenkins is no longer the feared lock down CB he once was. Eli Apple has consistenly proved to be beatable. I love Jabrill Peppers as a run stop safety, but he is a liability in pass defense. This is the corps of defenders John "Smoke" Brown will be tasked with on Sunday.
When healthy, Brown has been a favored target among big armed QB's. With Joe Flacco as his QB in 2018 through the first 7 games of the season Brown was on pace for a 1,206 yard, 9 TD season. Week 1 clearly indicates Smoke is Josh Allens's #1 target. If there is one thing Allen is not lacking in it is arm strength. Expect the big play's to be made between these two all season long, including their Sunday contest in the Meadowlands.
New England Receiving Backs Get Fed in Miami
Side note: If you drafted Sony Michel as your RB2, expect RB1 numbers against Miami. But this is not about Sony Michel. As always Bill Belichick's RB usage lends itself to unpredicatiblity. So the only thing I can say with unwavering certainty, is that there will be gobs of opportunities for the NE backs in week 2.
This would just be about James White, but as of writing this there are unconfirmed reports White may miss the game due to the birth of his child. If White does miss the game, Rex Burkhead becomes a very intriguing play in deeper leagues. Burkhead piled up 85 scrimmage yards in a slaughter of the Pittsburgh Steelers in week ! (that included 5 receptions on 8 targets). If you own a Patriot RB not named Damien Harris, give them the green light to take part in your starting roster.
Chris Thompson Viable In Divisional Rivalry
Derrius Guice you departed from us too soon. The Redskins are forced to crawl there way back into Adrian Peterson's good graces after making him a healthy scratch last week in favor of Guice. While last year AP was able to show that he still has some juice left in the tank, do not underestimate a tough Dallas run defense. AP is a fade for me this week.
Thompson on the other hand should be should be a sneaky good flex play. Thompson has always made his bones as a recever out of the backfield. Case Keenum will need reliable receving options trying to match a Dallas offense that just blasted the Giants for 35 points in week 1. Thompson was looked at often by Keenum, converting 10 targets into 7 receptions for 68 yards. Guice's absence will provide likely a slight uptick in usage. I am not even sure that it would be required for Thompson to be a solid flex play.
Deeper Plays Worth Consideration
- Mecole Hardman boasts blazing 4.33 speed and should be stepping into a larger role with Tyreek on the sidelines with a freak clavicle into sternum injury. Oakland's offense is much improved and Mahomes will have to... well be Mahomes. Mecole easily can find himself making a couple big plays boosting him into fantasy relevance.
- Deebo Samuel fits the bill of my week 1 call on DK Metcalf. Cincinnati's secondary is a repeat glaring week spot from 2018. Metcalf just capitalized with 89 receving yards off 6 targets. If Dante Pettis is not going to step up, someone else will have to. Samuel's college resume has me convinced that he can be that option.
- Vernon Davis again will need to fill in for the oft injured Jordan Reed. As in last weeks matchup, Washington will need to be throwing the ball plenty to keep up with Dallas. Davis was targeted 7 times against Philly and punched out of the game with a respectable 15.9 PPR points. Last week Evan Engram torched the dallas defenders for 11 receptions, 116 yards and a TD.
- Giovani Bernard has historically been a quality PPR play when given a respectable workload. Even if Joe Mixon does play through his ankle injury a split time share will be likely. While I think the 49er's run defense will be a much improved force in 2019, Bernard's ability as a receiver should keep him profitable for those who likely just acquired him on waivers.