Here we are already on the cusp of the quarter mark of the regular season. Last week my picks were pretty hit or miss but that's just the way the cookie crumbles. If you don't know that reference, please stop what you're doing and go watch Bruce Almighty. Going forward I will be reviewing my "Like" picks from the waivers and giving you actions to take going forward. The buy low window has officially shut for Evans and Mixon, following their big games. although, fear not, there are plenty more opportunities to improve your squads this week.
The like column is waiver picks that you shouldn't have to fight for. My love picks are players you should make trades for, and the leave picks are players I'm trading away. My goal is to give you options to improve your roster that not every single analyst is touting. These are all players that should be under the radar and easier to get than your typical NFL.com player.
Players I Like For Week 4
The talk of the town is Daniel Jones and rightfully so. But if you need a quarterback and you're low on the waivers or don't have the FAAB, look no further than Brissett. This season he has had no less than 15 fantasy points in a game and gets Oakland and Kansas City in the next 2 weeks.
Justin Jackson has had a touchdown called back on holding in each of the last 2 weeks. His stat lines look a lot different if those are added. The chargers play Miami next week. meaning they shouldn't need a whole lot from Ekeler and Jackson could get more touches than usual.
On the other side of this game, we have Preston Williams. The lone bright spot from Miami over the first 3 weeks. Williams has 23 targets, 11 catches for 151 yards and a touchdown. Rosen to Williams was one of my favorite preseason pairings to watch and should continue with their strong connection.
Johnson became the WR3 for the Steelers after the handless Moncrief was finally benched. The dude had feet for hands, really. Dionte is a rookie 3rd round pick, that ran a 4.5 40 yard dash. In his first action as a starter last week, he had 3 catches on 6 targets for 52 yards and a touchdown. With some of the bigger stat lines out there, Johnson should go overlooked on waivers.
Reed has been sidelined for 4 weeks and word from the Redskins camp is his career is in doubt. The Redskins behind Case Keenum have been a surprisingly good offense until last night against the Bears, but maybe we can chalk that up to a great defensive performance. Davis has 9 catches on 13 targets for 118 yards and a touchdown. These are not great numbers, but there is absolutely nothing behind Davis and he will continue to get most of the tight end run.
Players I Love For Week 4
The most predictable thing in fantasy football is opportunity. Targets, rushing attempts and passing attempts dominate analysis for this game, as it should. Kyler Murray in the first 3 weeks, has no less than 40 passing attempts in any given game. He has also averaged just under 5 carries a game. So far he hasn't had a big blow-up game, keeping his value a little lower than it should be.
The common perception is that as Montgomery gets more usage and more carries, that Cohen's share is going to decline, which is a false narrative. Cohen has played the majority of his snaps in the slot and has been used mostly as a receiver. Heading into week 4, he has 8 rushing attempts and 19 targets. Right now Cohen is dirt cheap after two subpar games. The opportunity is still there and is worth the small investment.
This is a really speculative buy with Penny currently injured and not having a large role the last time he was on the field. That said, the fact of the matter is that Carson has 3 fumbles in 3 games. Prosise played most of the second half on Sunday after Carson coughed up the football again. We have to start thinking about what the Seahawks are going to do in the future, and I would think a lot of that will be up to their former first-rounder. Right now Penny is pretty much free and could soon be a starting running back.
Godwin was all the talk over the first 2 weeks as he became the "number one" for the Bucs. Then in week 3, Evans went nuclear, corralling 8 catches on 15 targets for 190 yards and 3 touchdowns. This may have the Godwin owners in your league a little nervous and it's worth checking the price. I would happily pay up on a high-end WR2 for the Bucs 1B to Evans 1A, which is how this should be seen going forward.
Samuel has yet to clear 16 fantasy points in PPR. He has also failed to surpass 5 catches or 100 yards. That said, I will again stress that opportunity drives fantasy football and Samuel has seen 24 targets in 3 weeks. Not only that, but he still saw 7 targets compared to Moore's 1 with Allen at quarterback. Samuel should come pretty cheap and has the opportunity to give you low-end WR1 production. Buy, buy, buy as NSYNC would say.
Ertz has struggled to live up to his insane draft slot. He was a super popular play last week as the focal point of the Eagles offense and he came up with only 10 fantasy points. Of course, this was by design. While all of the other Eagles weapons were out, the Lions keyed in on Ertz and made the other pass-catchers beat them. Spoiler alert, they didn't. With all of that out of the way, Ertz has 30 targets through 3 games and should get at least one of Alshon Jeffrey or DeSean Jackson back next week, which should open the middle of the field.
Players I'm Leaving
Brady is currently QB5. If you have Brady, he's probably a good reason you are 2-1 or 3-0 if you are. With that out of the way, Brady is a good sell-high candidate. With Brown out of town and Edelman dealing with a chest injury, Brady is starting to get low on weapons. If Gordon were to get in trouble again, Brady would have nothing. Trying to stay ahead of the curve, now is a good time to hop on one of the young quarterbacks and deal the veteran for another helpful piece.
I really liked Lindsay coming into this week. I had him as one of my favorite DFS plays and streamers. This week Lindsay carried the ball 21 times for 80 yards and 2 touchdowns. The problem with those numbers is that they're inflated due to Freeman's in-game injury. Lindsay should be about a 12 carry a game back, and if someone thinks they're getting more you should pull the trigger. Most sites don't even note the injury for Freeman which shouldn't make it too difficult.
Jones is consistently in a timeshare no matter what he does. The fantasy community has waited patiently for the chains to come off, but I'm finished waiting. So far this season, Green Bay has one of the worst offenses in the league. On top of that Jones has cleared 13 carries just once throughout the first 3 weeks. Lafleur has made it clear that he prefers a committee even if it isn't always his best players on the field. Coming off a 10 carry, 19 yards and 2 touchdown performance, now is the time to sell high and get off this trainwreck.
Over the last 2 weeks, Agholor has 16 catches on 23 targets for 157 yards and 3 touchdowns. He may have one more game max getting more than the 5 targets he garnered in the first week. Alshon Jeffrey is expected back next week and Jackson soon after that. With everyone healthy, Agholor is maybe the number 4 option. Possibly even the 5th behind Miles Sanders. Let your prized waiver addition go for something a little more sturdy.
After everyone in the world had given up on Jones, he finally came to play. Good. Now I can trade him. Golladay has 27 targets in the first 3 weeks compared to only 19 for Jones. That wouldn't be so bad if Amendola didn't also have 18 targets and Hockenson another 16. Golladay is clearly the player to own here and the other 3 secondary options will rotate big games. Stop trying to guess when you'll get Jekyll and when you'll get Hyde.
A lot of analysts said something similar to " talent trumps coaching " in the draft season to convince you to draft Howard. Those guys are currently taking victory laps after Howards 3 catch game. Ouch. Arians system does not feature tight ends and that is now backed up by a talent like Howard having 9 targets in 3 games. Find someone who hasn't read this, who believes talent over coaching and give them Howard for Ertz or literally anyone else. Kidding, get a good player, but still trade him. 9 targets. 9.
Player's I Liked For Week 3:
Case Keenum: 30/43, 332 yards, 2 touchdowns, 5 turnovers
- Start. Keenum was just about as bad as he could be in a tough matchup with the Bears. Despite this, he scored 15 fantasy points which should mark his floor for as long as he is the starter. If the Redskins continue to go to him, you can as well.
Jeff Wilson: 8 attempts, 18 yards, 2 touchdowns
- Sell. Wilson has 4 touchdowns in the last two weeks, while in the same span having only 52 yards. Coleman is on his way back to the field and even as the goal-line back, Wilson's production isn't sustainable.
TJ Jones: 0 Targets
- Drop. With the return of Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, TJ Jones is an unappealing option even with Daniel Jones.
Damiere Byrd: 4 Targets, 2 Catches, 9 yards
- Stash. Byrd is still getting the targets. He is droppable if you really need the space, but I have a feeling that holding him for a week or two will afford you the opportunity to sell high.
Tyler Eifert: 1 Target, 1 Catch, 18 yards
- Stash. On a week where the entire Bengals offense appeared out of sorts and no receiver cleared 88 yards, I'm not being too hard on Eifert. If you need a tight end badly enough that you picked him, don't drop him. Better weeks are on the horizon.
With all of that out of the way, I'm signing off. I hope this article has convinced you to take a stand on at least one player who many aren't thinking about one way or another. I hope you get a waiver pickup that goes off that your league-mates missed. Most importantly I hope you're learning to be a winning fantasy football player and make smart decisions. If you want to stay up to date on my fantasy and DFS content, or you just want to hang out and chat follow me on Twitter @HessDfs. I look forward to hearing from some of you. Now get out there and get yourself some wins!