As a Cowboys fan, It’s very difficult to root against the boys on Sundays. But when playing fantasy football, we’re often put in exactly that situation. Moreover, it’s very easy to overvalue our home-team players. Both of these facts can lead us into a trap of misdrafting several key players. And now, your draft is fast approaching and you’re not sure which Cowboys to draft for your high stakes fantasy league. You want to believe in your team, but you also don’t want to lose your league because you’re too much of a homer.
I present for your consideration... a guide. A guide which is aimed at helping you keep the appropriate perspective on the home team.
I present to you:
The Homer’s guide to responsibly drafting Cowboys
(The guide assumes standard scoring and 12 team leagues. Average Draft Status is based on three mock draft aggregate websites)
Who Should I draft at quarterback?
Tony Romo
When is everyone else drafting him?
ADP: 97th overall and QB12, 82/QB12, & 97/QB13
What does the Homer think?
Tony Romo sucks. He always chokes in the big game. Ever since he took over for Bledsoe in the second half of that monday game against the Giants. Ever since he fumbled that snap on the extra point. He makes other teams lose just by showing up in the stands. Oh, and the whole Jessica Simpson thing. All he’s good for is running up stats in meaningless situations.
When should you draft him?
Fortunately, all of those “meaningless” stats will make Romo a top 10 quarterback in Fantasy football this season. Romo has a better offense than last season. The Cowboys have have one of the two best receivers in the league, one of the top offensive lines in the league and there is no shortage of receiving talent in Witten, Murray and Williams. Escobar and Hannah appear to have improved and Lance Dunbar looks to be a threat out of the backfield. The only buzzkill is the atrocious defense. The Cowboys defense is more bad than the offense is good. On the upside, the Cowboys will be playing from behind or in a shootout for most of the season. On the downside... A team with a grinding style will devour the clock against this Cowboys team.
Conclusion
A easy choice as the 10th qb taken or later. Picking him any earlier than the 8th QB will be a stretch. The round will be determined by your leagues scoring settings and the drafting tendencies of the other players.
Who should I draft at Running Back?
Demarco Murray and Lance Dunbar
When is everyone else drafting him?
Murray: 14/RB8, 13/RB7, and 17/RB9
Dunbar RB59, RB60 and RB61
What does the Homer think?
Murray gets hurt too much. He’s great when he’s actually on the field... but he’s gonna get hurt for 4 or 5 games. And the Cowboys defense sucks. So he isn’t even going to be running in the second half of any of our games. Dunbar is the second coming of Felix Jones. Just before he became worthless. He’ll be awesome once Murray gets hurt.
When should you draft them?
Murray: Thanks to the situation on defense, he probably won’t be running late in games, but he should catch more passes and the offensive line will have a much greater snap off the line. Ultimately I think his season will be remarkably similar to last year, which is a good thing. If you’re in standard scoring, you can pick him up as the 7th overall RB without fear of reprisal. If you’re in a PPR league, you can pick him up as high as the 6th RB.
Dunbar: If you already have Murray, acquiring Dunbar is a no brainer. Murray will likely miss a little time and Murray is the handcuff. If you don’t have Murray, he’s still a great pick for an RB3 or Flex2 situation. Last year Joique Bell recorded 53 receptions as the backup to Reggie Bush. If Dunbar keeps pace (and there isn’t much reason to think he wont see as many targets as Bell) you can expect 3-5 catches per game and 5-7 carries. Those numbers wont change the fantasy world, but they can be the difference in winning or losing a week. In a PPR league, his value is even higher. Lots of articles are popping up about Dunbar’s sleeper status, so you’ll have to take this Cowboys sleeper earlier than he’s worth. 2-4 rounds from the end of your draft should get it done. If it’s a private league, try to gauge if anyone else is on his scent. If it’s a public league, good luck.
Conclusion
Murray has great value as the 9th RB off the board. Drafting him any earlier than 6th is a stretch. In a PPR league, drafting him any time after 5th is fine and he’s an absolute steal at 8th
With Dunbar there are lots of articles popping up about our little sleeper. Draft him two or three rounds from the end if you want to make sure you get him.
Who should I draft at Wide Receiver?
Dez Bryant and Terrence Williams
When is everyone else drafting them?
Dez: 11/WR3, 11/WR3, 16/WR4
Williams: 85/RB34, 89/RB34, and 94/RB34
What does the Homer think?
DEZ!!! Best player on the team. Best receiver since the playmaker. He’s kind of a Diva, but he’s awesome. We need to throw him the ball more. If Romo had any idea what he was doing, he’d throw to Dez on just about every play. He’s the second best receiver in the league. Terrence Williams... man. He’s gonna have a breakout year. Just like Miles playing behind Roy Williams, Robinson behind Miles, and Dez behind Miles... the Cowboys' Second Wideout always breaks out. Williams is a sleeper, he’s gonna be amazing.
When Should I draft him?
Bryant: Bryant is incredible. The only better wideout is Megatron. Bryant will be no lower than 2nd in number of total targets. He’ll be top 3 in yards, catches and touchdowns. You can’t miss with him. If Calvin Johnson is still on the board, you should take him instead. Otherwise, take Dez. People are very high on Demaryious Thomas (with the departure of Decker) but Bryant should still out perform him.
Williams is perplexing. He’s the Cowboys second wide receiver, but he’s no higher than the 3rd option on most plays. Add in new playcaller Scott Linehan’s propensity for throwing to the running back, and I’m not sure of William’s value. Under Linehan the receptions for detroit last year looked like this: CJ 84, Reggie Bush 54, Joique Bell 53, Pettigrew 41, Durham 38/Burleson 39. Before you make the argument that Burleson missed 7 games and Durham was his back up... consider that the next WR on the list is Ogletree and he had 13 receptions. Also factor in that Witten is going into the Hall of Fame and is going to catch more than 70 passes. Cowboys also play many sets with 2 tight ends while the Lions almost always had 3 or 4 wide receivers on each play. It’s not a stretch to predict williams catching less than 40 balls. Regardless, If you’re high on Williams, no one will mock you for taking him in the 7th round or later. But you should really leave him off your team.
Conclusion
Drafting Dez as anything but the second WR off the board is more of a heist than a steal.
Williams in the 8th round is reasonable by all the lists. That draft standing is very inflated. Anything earlier than the 10th is a stretch. Williams is going to be drafted too high and considered a bust. Don’t be surprised when he’s on the waiver wire by week 5. He'll be a contributor for the Cowboys on the field, but there are better options for a WR3/WR4 or flex spot available.
Who should I draft at tight end?
Jason Witten, Gavin Escobar and James Hannah
When is everyone else drafting them
WittenADP: 71/TE6, 56/TE5, and 54/TE5.
EIther of the other two: NA
What does the Homer think?
Personal Homer note here: You have to love Jason Witten. Leader of the team. Genetic freak and genuinely nice guy. I had the pleasure of hearing him speak at a charity auction recently. He’s the real deal. He's a leader for the Cowboys in the locker room and on the field. I think he swallows up most of the back-up WR catches and stays in the 80 catch range this season. He’s potentially towards the back of the 1st group of non-Graham Tight ends, but... It’s easy and fun to root for Jason Witten. Don’t feel bad about taking him over anyone except Graham or Julian Thomas.
When should I draft them?
Witten: Jimmy Graham is the 1st and only choice for top TE. After Him, you hit a second tier of great TE’s. Julius Thomas, Rob Gronkowski, Vernon Davis, Jordan Cameron and Jason Witten. Thomas should have another great year (He’ll get a boost from the loss of Decker) and Davis has the potential to dominate with his athleticism. However, with Gronk you always have to worry about his health and Jordan Cameron will be switching QB’s by week 6, so that’s a volatile choice as well. Witten is almost a mortal lock for 16 games and a minimum of 75 catches. Over the years I’ve learned to never draft a TE too high unless it’s Jimmy Graham. Generally there are better overall players available at the same time that people start picking up tight ends. Witten is the safest pick of that second tier and as long as you have met needs at QB, WR and RB, picking Witten any time during the run on second tier TEs is completely acceptable. The only TEs in that group who you should definitely take ahead of Jason are Graham, Thomas and possibly even Gronk. But again, don’t pick TE too high.
Escobar and Hannah: The Cowboys have good depth at TE, but you shouldn't draft either of these guys.
Conclusion
Watch when that second tier starts going. Take Witten after Graham, Gronk and Thomas but absolutely no earlier than the 4th or 5th round. In the 6th round and beyond, he has astounding value.
Some combination of Escobar and Hannah is probably going to split a handful of touchdowns. But both will frequently get shut out for a whole game. No touchdowns, no catches and no targets. In a 12 team league, you should only have starting TE’s on your roster. Waive off.
Should I draft the defense?
The Defense
Cowboys fans should get ready to see similar scenes all season longWhen is it being drafted?
It’s not
What does the homer think?
C’mon Jerry... You’re killing this team.
When should you draft it?
Maybe in 2017
Conclusion
Pick almost any other team’s defense and you’re bound to do better.
A last note:
Despite a looming 5-12 record, the Cowboys have legitimate talent at all four primary fantasy positions. Draft wisely and you shouldn’t end up on the losing end of your league because you choose to pursue one of more of them. And seriously, I can’t stress this enough... stay away from Terrance Williams.