I can only assume you are saying to yourself “Why does this idiot have a known fantasy football commodity as a sleeper?” While I know Malcom Floyd has been fantasy-worthy for the last couple years, I think he might finally be in line for a big year compared to where he is currently being drafted.
According to MyFantasyLeague.com’s ADP rankings, Floyd is currently the 38th receiver off the board, with his average pick currently set between the 110-111th player taken overall. If those numbers continue deep into the Summer, owners who take Floyd late could be getting gold at a bargain.
There are a few reasons I like Floyd’s outlook compared to prior years:
Philip Rivers’ health.
Last year Rivers was dealing with some sort of injury, but nobody knew exactly what it was. Because of that, he looked tentative on the field and his numbers were down. But with 2011 behind us, I see Rivers bouncing back. This not only gives Rivers better value, but will help all those around him, including Floyd.
Loss of Vincent Jackson.
Jackson signing in Tampa Bay was the best thing that could have happened for Floyd owners. With all the hype surrounding Robert Meachem, Floyd is slipping under the radar. Antonio Gates figures to lead the team in targets. But with Meachem’s ability to stretch the field, Floyd could also benefit from a lot of underneath targets and red-zone looks. The biggest concern I have is Meachem’s health. He’s had a history of nagging injuries. But if he can stay healthy, the coaching staff believes he can do great things. That will help take some defensive attention off Floyd.
How many times have we seen players play over their heads in a contract year? One of the greatest examples I like to use is when Muhsin Muhammed was in a contract year while with the Panthers in 2004. That year, he topped his career highs in receiving yards (1405), 100-yard games (7) and touchdowns (16). Unfortunately, he went to Chicago and did jack squat, but redraft owners only care about 2012. Floyd could easily be the next guy who plays beyond his abilities in order to land that big contract.
Right now Floyd’s career-high in receptions is 45 (2009). Not only do I see him breaking that, but I predict he will notch his first 1000-yard season. Now don’t think I’m telling you to be an idiot and draft Floyd as a WR2. I don’t think he will be THAT good. But Floyd could easily be a WR3 who is currently being valued as a WR4/WR5.