2009 Fantasy Football RB Rankings – A Double Take

 

The Return of LT

Updated Top 40 Running Back Rankings – Standard League

Updated from previous 7/20/09 rankings.

1. Adrian Peterson, MIN ~ It's no surprise here that Adrian Peterson is expected to be the TOP Fantasy Football RB off the boards in Non-PPR leagues. As long as A.P. can avoid injury he is the standard league RB monster. I'd bump him up with Favres addition, but there's nowhere else to go.
2. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX ~ MJD may have a bigger year than A.P., but given it's his first full year carrying the feature back workload, he has to prove his durability first. Personally, I think he'll walk all over A.P., but time will tell.
3. Matt Forte, CHI ~ Forte won't see as many carries in 2009 as he did last season, and Kevin Jones will surely take some yardage away. But with a better quarterback in Jay Cutler, and Jones helping to keep him fresh, I think he'll earn this spot in the rankings.
4. LaDainian Tomlinson, SDG ~ Last season LT's former back up, Turner, bested him on the field. I think 2009 will be a reversal of fortunes, and LT will climb back up near the top. So far this preseason he is showing he has the desire, and we know he has the skills.
5. Michael Turner, ATL ~ Turner has looked great in the preseason so far, but he won't see as many touches in 2009, and some of his TD's will go to newcomer TE, Tony Gonzalez. He is also not a rookie, ala Forte. He's got some miles on those tires (age not workload). Jerious Norwood will also be more involved in the running game this season. Not that strength of schedule means a whole lot, but combined with the above, I can't see taking Turner in the top four this season.
6. Steven Jackson, STL ~ If I could bet money on S-Jax and his fragile health, I'd move him higher. He could easily put up top three RB stats in 2009. His new coach is committed to making him the centerpiece of their offense.
7. Frank Gore, SFO ~ Except for poor TD numbers, Gore's stats weren't that bad last season. The team brought in rookie Glen Coffee to help keep Gore healthy and fresh, and new coach Mike Singletary is all about the running game.
8. Steve Slaton, HOU ~ Slaton was a stud in his rookie season, and he'll be in for an even bigger slice of the pie in 2009. He reminds me of a young Warrick Dunn, and he has no one stealing carries.
9. Chris Johnson, TEN ~ If not for the presence of Lendale White I could make an argument to move him above Slaton, but WHITE is splitting the carries and he's a TD thief. Still Johnson is a yardage horse who finds the endzone plenty on his own.
10. Clinton Portis, WAS ~ He is the team work horse. Ladell Betts will steal some TD's but Portis is the man in Washington. I keep thinking sooner or letter his legs are going to turn to jello, and late last season they did. However, the first half of the season saw him as the top RB on this list. The question is, who will we see in 2009? If he starts off fast again, trade him high.
11. DeAngelo Williams, CAR ~ I see people taking this guy in the first round this year and it makes me cringe. Last season was a fluke. The kid has talent and great wheels, but he splits carries with a better RB in Jonathon Stewart. But Stewart is hurt this preseason, so Williams remains the go to guy.
12. Brian Westbrook, PHI ~ He's an injury machine, yet he's always productive. He has LeSean McCoy waiting in the wing's to spell him, or steal his job if he goes down again, so expect Westbrook to have a huge season or die trying.
13. Ronnie Brown, MIA ~ Brown is one of those guys you don't want to have to make a decision about taking. He can certainly put up big numbers, but injury is a risk, and he just doesn't make you feel good when you pick him.
14. Ryan Grant, GBP ~ This will be Grant's comeback season. I know he's too young to have a comeback season, but last year he simply sucked after his 2007 performance. I expect numbers closer to 2007.
15. Brandon Jacobs, NYG ~ Jacob's is a wall of hurt barreling down the field. Get in his way at your own risk. The downside is he too often hurts himself as well, so cuff him to Ahmad Bradshaw just in case.
16. Marion Barber, DAL ~ Barber shines best when he has someone else splitting carries with him. This season he has a healthy Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. Barber should have a nice bounce back season.
17. Pierre Thomas, NOS ~ If he weren't already stud enough and in a position to have a monster season, Reggie Bush is once again hurt and the games that count have not even started yet. Thomas is another guy I think can put up top 10 numbers in 2009.
18. Kevin Smith, DET ~ Last season we saw small glimpses of the future. This season expect top 15 numbers. Brandon Jacobs is ranked and drafted higher, but my gut says Smith out performs him in '09.
19. Ray Rice, BAL ~ Rice makes the biggest jump on the list. While the running game in Baltimore is another three-headed monster, Rice seems to be the man, and the Ravens run...a lot! He is going later in drafts than he should be and is a nice mid-round steal.
20. Marshawn Lynch, BUF ~ Yes Lynch will miss the first 3 games of the season, but when he's on the field he racks up fantasy points, and 13 games of the season should be enough to warrant taking him here.
21. Joseph Addai, IND ~ I think a lot of people under estimate Addai this season because of the last couple of years and the presence of rookie Donald Brown; but I expect an improvement over last season's performance.
22. Darren McFadden, OAK ~ McFadden didn't come close to living up to his high rookie expectations, but expect nice rewards on your investment this season. He looks great so far, and let's face it, the Raiders passing game sucked even before Chaz Schilens broke his foot.
23. Thomas Jones, NYJ ~ A lot of people have written Jones off despite his AFC best 2008 season. But Leon Washington will not impact Jone's numbers. The question mark is how deeply will rookie Shonn Greene gouge into his productivity, and how soon? I still expect a reasonably useful fantasy season.
24. Reggie Bush, NOS ~ Read my lips, I will not draft Reggie Bush no matter how big the upside. Yeah right, you know we will. Just expect to lose him for a handful of games at some point. You can almost set your clock by his injuries.
25. Larry Johnson, KCC ~ The experts have mostly written this guy off, but if QB Matt Cassells struggles, and so far he is, expect the ground game to see a lot of action.
26. Derrick Ward, TBB ~ He will be splitting carries with Earnest Graham, but I expect a good 1000+ yard season from Ward. Tampa Bay will be relying heavily on the running game.
27. Cedric Benson, CIN ~ I loathe putting this guy above some of the others that come after him, but he is the Bengals feature back, and he's not in a time share, so there ya go.
28. Knowshon Moreno, DEN ~ This kid has all the tools to be a first round RB for years to come, but as a rookie I'm not getting overly excited. He'll split carries with three other backs, and he's already been injured once this preseason. The coach will bring him along slowly.
29. Willie Parker, PIT ~ Second year RB Rashard Mendenhall was expected to do serious damage to Parker's value last season and again this year, but in '08 Rashard was on the IR all season, and so far this summer he's been largely ineffective. RB3 Mewelde Moore is hurt. This is Parker's chance to regain his former glory.
30. Jonathon Stewart, CAR ~ The Panther's best running back is being drafted as an RB3 when he's putting up low end RB1 numbers. He's certainly a worthwhile number two. He's currently hurt, but he should be fine for the season.
31. Lendale White, TEN ~ He is Tennessee's version of Jonathon Stewart. He slimmed down this year (by giving up drinking), and he has plans to make the Titan's rethink his role as RB2. He has RB1 skills.
32. Felix Jones, DAL ~ He's healthy and so far this preseason Felix has looked excellent. Expect him to get nice complimentary back numbers in support of Marion Barber. He also has soft hands on pass plays.
33. Leon Washington, NYJ ~ The man is a fantasy monster for a back up RB. He drops down a bit simply because he's backing up two RBs in Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene this season.
34. Darren Sproles, SDG ~ He may be the best back up RB in fantasy football and is a definite handcuff to Tomlinson. In PPR and return yardage leagues he jumps all the way into the top 15 with Leon Washington and Jerious Norwood.
35. Jamal Lewis, CLE ~ He's still their featured back, but Jerome Harrison and James Davis represent serious threats to his longevity for the Browns. He could still do 1000 yards, but don't expect more than 5 TDs.
36. Julius Jones, SEA ~ I don't think much of Jones as an RB, but he will get plenty of opportunities for the Seahawks, and Maurice Morris is gone. TJ Duckett will steal some TDs, but the hard yards are Jones to earn.
37. Donald Brown, IND ~ I wrote in another column that I believe Brown will out produce his RB1, Joseph Addai. I still believe he can and may, but I've tempered my hope. It is still a pass first team in Indy.
38. Chris 'Beanie' Wells, ARZ ~ I don't have high expectations for this kid in his rookie season. He splits carries with Tim Hightower and he's on a heavy passing team. So far this summer he can't stay healthy, but he could be a surprise producer.
39. Earnest Graham, TBB ~ I think his yardage will be less than Derrick Ward's, but Graham will most likely be the goal line back. He should also see decent receptions in the passing game. He could out perform Ward, but Cadillac Williams and Clifton Smith are in the mix as well.
40. Jerious Norwood, ATL ~ Norwood has phenomenal skills and has so far been limited, but the new coaching regime promises more touches and action in 2009.

--Watch-- Shonn Greene, NYJ ~ Greene has done nothing this summer except impress coach Rex Ryan. "He's part battering ram, part finesse. I think he can be a special back. I really do." Greene could get more opportunity than originally thought this year. A 1000 yard season is not out of the question.

--Watch-- James Davis, CLE ~ Jamal Lewis' time in Cleveland has about run its course, and Davis (not Jerome Harrison) will be the man to pick up the flag. He leads the team through two preseason games and has three times as many yards as Lewis.

--Sleeper-- Laurence Maroney, NEP ~ He is still the defacto RB1 in New England despite the team carrying a dozen RBs to split time. If he can show he's the guy they originally thought he was when they made him their starting running back, he could be a pleasant surprise in 2009.

--Bust-- Rashard Mendenhall, PIT ~ So far his performance at the NFL level has not caught up with the hype and skills he showed in college. As a lifetime Steelers fan, I'm truly hoping I can eat these words later.