One of the more difficult things to figure out in fantasy football is whether or not you should take a chance on certain players, and what's even more difficult, is figuring out who those players may or may not be.
In this piece, I thought I would take a quick look at five players who may not be as valuable as they are being touted to be.
Keep in mind, this isn't going to be one of those hater articles, just an early overview based on situations and scenarios from the past and from the present day, while also throwing in some good old fashioned sense.
Let's get started!
Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The very early news is that newly drafted RB Doug Martin will simply be given the starting role over RB LeGarrette Blount, but does that instantly make Martin a worthy draft consideration?
It is conceivable that Blount may lose time to Martin, and even his starting role considering his lack-luster performance thus far, and the fact that Martin is an all-around better back in regard to running and blocking.
But there are two things to keep in mind before you get all giddy over Martin's "potential".
1. The Bucs aren't stupid. If you had one all-purpose back (Martin) and one prototypical goaline back at 6'0" 247 pounds (Blount) what would you do with them? We may hear a lot of "RB competition" talk this summer coming from Tampa, but in the end, I see a RBBC; a situation that could limit both back's overall value.
2. Greg Schiano has a history as a "run-first" coach, and while we won't know for sure if that does in fact become the approach, it certainly won't help fantasy owners much if it does with a potential committee brewing.
Early Prognosis: Proceed with Caution.
Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers
When the 49ers first added Randy Moss and Mario Manningham, I thought there was a chance that Crabtree's days were limited in San Fran. When the 49ers added Illinois standout A. J. Jenkins, I was convinced that the 49ers were up to something sneaky and vicious.
Randy Moss and Mario Manningham are true-type outside receivers, where Crabtree—originally thought of as the deep-ball answer for San Fran—appears not to be.
Crabtree has great speed and off-the-line explosion, but he has struggled with coverage separation in recent years.
One rumor is that the 49ers could send Crabtree to the slot, which would seemingly increase his PPR value, while diminishing his overall Standard value.
Another theory is that the 49ers are beginning to regret their long-term investment, and have put Crabtree on notice with the addition of Moss, Manningham and Jenkins.
Our own Greg Brosh delves a little bit into San Fran himself with his latest piece concerning Other Fantasy Football Quarterbacks To Avoid In 2012, you should definitely check it out.
I'm going to have to see a lot out of camp to convince me this is NOT an experiment destine to fail, so in the meantime, I'm staying away from San Fran, and Crabtree.
Early Prognosis: More Risk than Reward
Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit Lions
The Lions made no moves to acquire a RB in free agency or the draft, and have now said that Best could be ready for contact by June, lending favor to the notion that the organization is once again gonna roll the dice with Best.
Best certainly has the talent, the trouble is, he hasn't done anything with it yet. In 2010, the boy played 15 games and racked up a measly 563 yards and 4 TDs, and last year he was so damn injured he was nothing more than an afterthought.
The problem here is this scenario always gets one fantasy owner to think "no way, bro. this is gonna be his year, you'll see..." only to have that owner cursing his ill-gotten decision five weeks into the fantasy season.
Best can't be trusted. He's a little fragile for a running back, plays in an offense that is clearly pass-first and won't even get contact clearance until freaking June.
Early Prognosis: Can't be Trusted
Jon Beason, Linebacker, Carolina Panthers
Here's a little insight for all of you IDP owners out there. The original job for Beason was at the weak-side, and for IDP owners utilizing a WLB from Carolina, there was nothing but benefits to reap considering how much the Panthers "role" coverage and traffic to the weak-side.
The thing here, however, is whether or not Beason will be as effective as he once was at WLB now that he has had surgery to repair a torn Achilles.
The WLB position requires a backer to be more mobile and flexible than that of a MLB, and if Beason can't return to his able-body form, the Panthers could move rookie Luke Kuechly to the weak-side, and Beason to the middle.
This move would lessen Beason's overall value, and potentially increase Kuechly's, so it is a situation to monitor as the summer progresses.
Early Prognosis: Proceed with Caution
Brandon Weeden, QB, Cleveland Browns
I have heard a lot buzz surrounding this guy, ranging from he is going to be the immediate starter, to he has so much more talent than Colt McCoy.
Uh-huh, yeah. Umm, who's he gonna throw to even if he does have a butt load of talent?
Look the guy is already 28 years old, is walking into a QB controversy, and has no one to throw to outside of Greg Little who dropped more balls than he caught in 2011.
Even GM Tom Heckert acknowledged Little dropped too many balls in 2011 according to Mary-Kay Cabot on Twitter.
Weeden can have all the talent in the world, but that doesn't mean squat in fantasy. You want a QB who has the right tools surrounding him in order to get the points.
Unless we see something spectacular on a consistent basis this summer, Weeden has fantasy bust written all over him.
Early Prognosis: Avoid Weeden
