Depending on who you ask, Strength of Schedule (SOS) is either meaningful or meaningless. There doesn't seem to be much gray area among the experts. Yet each season articles abound on the impact of SOS on seasonal outcome, and of course, the fantasy implications...if there are any. I believe the truth lay somewhere in the middle, as it most often does.
Strength of Schedule not tough enough for the Steel Curtain
The Atlanta Falcons are in much the same boat as the fins. Sophomore QB Matt Ryan faces a more daunting schedule than last season, so from a fantasy perspective Michael Turner will see fewer touches in losing games, and guys like Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez will see more looks.
The Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills are three other teams who's fantasy production will be impacted. DeAngelo Williams will struggle for double digit TDs this season, Marshawn Lynch will struggle as well, and the Bucs three-headed RBBC already makes their ground game a fantasy mess. Players I think will do well are the Panther's Steve Smith, the Bill's Terrell Owens and Lee Evans, and Kellen Winslow in Tampa.
--Who SOS Helps--
On the flipside, teams that benefit from the 2009 SOS are Chicago, Minnesota and Green Bay. The Chicago Bears' defense which was already pretty solid moves up a couple of notches. Add in new QB, Jay Cutler, and the fantasy ramifications for all the Bears receivers is positive. Running backs Matt Forte and Kevin Jones will also see more time eating up the clock when the team is in the lead.
The Minnesota Vikings who are the third ranked defense already, should see more fantasy production in 2009 on turnovers, sacks, and fewer points allowed. Add Brett Favre to the offense and the second best SOS and Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice and Vinsanthe Shiancoe should all be moved up a bit in your draft rankings.
Aaron Rodgers had a statistically attractive first season helming the Green Bay Packers in 2008. Unfortunately it didn't translate to many wins. With a full year of experience under his pads, an improved defense, and a lighter schedule, the Pack look to be divisional contenders in 2009. I see fantasy improvement for Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant, WRs Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, and sleeper potential for WRs Jordy Nelson, James Jones and TE Jeremichael Finley. I think Rodgers will have close to 40 TDs this season and over 4000 passing yards.
The Steelers go from a Super Bowl team with the toughest schedule in 2008, to one of the easiest in 2009. This should mean improved fantasy production all around, but most obvious, the already dominating defense of the modern Steel Curtain is going to smother other teams this season. Super Bowl title number seven could be on the way.
|
2008 Strength of Schedule |
2009 Strength of Schedule |
||||
|
Team |
Opp. 2007 Winning % |
2008 Record |
Outcome |
Team |
Opp. 2008 Winning % |
| 1. Pittsburgh Steelers |
.598 |
12-4 |
Won Super Bowl |
1. Miami Dolphins |
.594 |
| 2. Indianapolis Colts |
.594 |
12-4 |
Wild Card |
2. Carolina Panthers |
.592 |
| 3. Jacksonville Jaguars |
.559 |
5-11 |
3. New England Patriots |
.590 |
|
| 4. Baltimore Ravens |
.551 |
11-5 |
Wild Card |
4. Atlanta Falcons |
.588 |
| 5. Minnesota Vikings |
.551 |
10-6 |
Won Division |
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
.580 |
| 6. Cincinnati Bengals |
.547 |
4-11-1 |
6. Buffalo Bills |
.570 |
|
| 7. Cleveland Browns |
.547 |
4-12 |
7. New York Jets |
.568 |
|
| 8. Houston Texans |
.547 |
8-8 |
8. New Orleans Saints |
.557 |
|
| 9. Detroit Lions |
.543 |
0-16 |
9. Philadelphia Eagles |
.535 |
|
| 10. Tennessee Titans |
.543 |
13-3 |
Playoffs |
10. New York Giants |
.527 |
| 11. Chicago Bears |
.531 |
9-7 |
11. Dallas Cowboys |
.516 |
|
| 12. Green Bay Packers |
.531 |
6-10 |
11. Jacksonville Jaguars |
.516 |
|
| 13. Dallas Cowboys |
.523 |
9-7 |
13. Indianapolis Colts |
.512 |
|
| 14. Washington Redskins |
.523 |
8-8 |
14. Tennessee Titans |
.508 |
|
| 15. New York Giants |
.520 |
12-4 |
Playoffs |
15. Houston Texans |
.506 |
| 16. Philadelphia Eagles |
.520 |
9-6-1 |
Wild Card |
16. Washington Redskins |
.492 |
| 17. St. Louis Rams |
.488 |
2-14 |
17. Kansas City Chiefs |
.484 |
|
| 18. San Francisco 49ers |
.484 |
7-9 |
17. San Diego Chargers |
.484 |
|
| 19. Seattle Seahawks |
.477 |
4-12 |
19. Denver Broncos |
.480 |
|
| 20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
.469 |
9-7 |
19. Oakland Raiders |
.480 |
|
| 21. Arizona Cardinals |
.465 |
9-7 |
Lost Super Bowl |
21. Detroit Lions |
.467 |
| 22. Carolina Panthers |
.465 |
12-4 |
Won Division |
22. Cincinnati Bengals |
.465 |
| 23. Miami Dolphins |
.465 |
11-5 |
Won Division |
22. St. Louis Rams |
.465 |
| 24. Atlanta Falcons |
.461 |
11-5 |
24. Seattle Seahawks |
.457 |
|
| 25. New York Jets |
.457 |
9-7 |
25. Cleveland Browns |
.449 |
|
| 26. Kansas City Chiefs |
.453 |
2-14 |
26. San Francisco 49ers |
.443 |
|
| 27. Buffalo Bills |
.449 |
7-9 |
27. Arizona Cardinals |
.441 |
|
| 28. New Orleans Saints |
.449 |
8-8 |
28. Baltimore Ravens |
.438 |
|
| 29. Denver Broncos |
.445 |
8-8 |
29. Pittsburgh Steelers |
.434 |
|
| 30. Oakland Raiders |
.438 |
5-11 |
30. Green Bay Packers |
.428 |
|
| 31. San Diego Chargers |
.422 |
8-8 |
Won Division |
31. Minnesota Vikings |
.420 |
| 32. New England Patriots |
.387 |
11-5 |
32. Chicago Bears |
.414 |
|
In 2008, back-up QB, Matt Cassell stepped in for the injured Tom Brady and the team looked quite good, going 11-5 on the season. Fortunately for Cassell and the team, they had the easiest schedule of all 32 teams last year. Cassell's fantasy value has been over-hyped going into 2009, and I pegged him as a bust. So far he has done nothing to prove me wrong. Cassell used the hype to get his own starring role for the Kansas City Chiefs. So far an injury has hurt his playing time, and the Chief's are a woeful team anyway. But Cassell is an example of how SOS turned an average performer into a fantasy viable QB.
Strength of schedule is not something to focus a lot of fantasy attention on, but it can impact certain players and teams to some degree. Don't base your draft on it, but if you're sitting there with the third pick in the draft and you can't decide between Forte or Turner, SOS would suggest Forte has more upside this season. If you're drafting defense/special teams, you might bypass loftier names like the Giants and Ravens and take a shot with the Packers or Bears.
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