The majority of my articles are based on my experience at playing fantasy sports and an in depth knowledge of how players are performing. Last week I decided to start a column based solely on the statistics. I gave you the numbers, and let you decide if you trust what those numbers predict. So let's take a look at how those stats panned out.
The QB numbers suggested good match-ups for Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub, Matt Hasselbeck and Tony Romo. All 5 ended in the top 7 QB performances of the day. The statistics suggested sitting Kerry Collins, Jake Delhomme, Chad Henne, JaMarcus Russell and Tom Brady. Collins, Delhomme and Russell were complete busts, and Henne and Brady ended at 13th and 15th places, respectively. Given most leagues are 10 -12 teams in depth, none of them made the cut. It looks like the numbers were dead on.
The RB statistics suggested good match-ups for the Browns, Bills, Giants, Cardinals and Redskins. All 5 teams had RBs in the top 20, with Ahmad Bradshaw of the Giants the best performer of the week at RB. The stats also suggested sitting backs for the Patriots, Jets, Rams, Colts and Lions. Here the numbers weren't quite so on target as all 5 ended in the top 24, which at 2 backs per league means all had somewhat productive days. Though none exploded for great yardage. Thomas Jones had under 50 yards, but scored twice.
The WR statistics suggested solid match-ups for the Colts, Seahawks, Texans, Cowboys and Eagles receivers. Six of the 5 teams receivers scored in the top 6 spots, and the Seahawks had 2 in the top 8. We all saw Jeremy Maclin and Miles Austin bust out. On the flipside, the stats suggested sitting receivers for the Rams, Redskins, Dolphins, Raiders and Patriots. Here we had a mixed bag. Donnie Avery, Ted Ginn, Jr., and Wes Welker all scored and all 3 ended in the top 17. But the Raiders and Redskins WRs were completely silent. An intriguing side note here is the Patriots number one receiver, and the Eagles number one receiver (Randy Moss and DeSean Jackson) were invisible Sunday.
The TE numbers suggested playing tight ends for the Rams, Colts, Jets, Browns, and Lions, and boy were those stats wrong. Only the reliable Dallas Clark landed in the top 10, and even he did not score. On the Sit side of things, the numbers suggested benching TEs for the Panthers, Buccaneers, Falcons, Patriots and Titans. Four of these team's tight ends ended in the top 11 at their position. Three of them scored, with Kellen Winslow being the day's biggest fantasy TE with 2 TDs.
So what do these numbers tell us? After one week it's hard to say, but it seems the stats are more accurate at predicting QB production, and better at Start suggestions than Sit suggestions. Then again, last week many players defied the odds, making many fantasy "experts" look annoyingly incompetent. I was not immune on some of my calls, that's for sure.
Let's get on to what this weeks numbers will tell us:
The top 5 easiest are the teams surrendering the most points to a given position. The guys listed are advisable plays. The top 5 toughest are the teams that surrender the least points at a given position. The guys listed are advisable sits, based solely on the numbers. As an example, the numbers tell me to sit Marques Colston this week. Not happening. Likewise they tell me I should start Rams QB Marc Bulger this week against the Jaguars, but regardless of what the stats say, he's not going on my team no matter how good the match up. But if you're bye week desperate...
– QB Match-ups to Exploit or Avoid–
|
Top 5 Easiest vs. QBs |
Passing |
Rushing |
Fantasy |
||||||||
|
Team |
G |
Cmp |
Att |
Yard |
TD |
INT |
Att |
Yard |
TD |
Ftsy Pts Allowed |
Week 6 Opp |
| 1. Tennessee Titans |
5 |
138 |
193 |
1,523 |
13 |
4 |
17 |
55 |
1 |
139.7 |
Tom Brady |
| 2. Detroit Lions |
5 |
118 |
161 |
1,285 |
15 |
3 |
11 |
23 |
1 |
132.6 |
Aaron Rodgers |
| 3. Arizona Cardinals |
4 |
100 |
159 |
1,241 |
9 |
3 |
9 |
31 |
0 |
101.2 |
Matt Hasselbeck |
| 4. Jacksonville Jaguars |
5 |
128 |
183 |
1,391 |
11 |
4 |
15 |
27 |
1 |
122.3 |
Marc Bulger |
| 5. Kansas City Chiefs |
5 |
97 |
173 |
1,386 |
10 |
2 |
16 |
26 |
1 |
117.9 |
Jason Campbell |
|
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– RB Match-ups to Exploit or Avoid–
|
Top 5 Easiest vs. RBs |
Rushing |
Receiving |
Fantasy |
||||||
|
Team |
G |
Att |
Yard |
TD |
Rec |
Yard |
TD |
Ftsy Pts Allowed |
Week 6 Opp |
| 1. San Diego Chargers |
4 |
114 |
550 |
6 |
26 |
237 |
1 |
120.7 |
K. Moreno |
| 2. Cleveland Browns |
5 |
147 |
715 |
8 |
32 |
256 |
0 |
145.1 |
R. Mendenhall |
| 3. Oakland Raiders |
5 |
170 |
726 |
6 |
22 |
230 |
1 |
137.6 |
Westbrook/McCoy |
| 4. Buffalo Bills |
5 |
151 |
689 |
7 |
24 |
170 |
1 |
133.9 |
Thomas Jones |
| 5. Houston Texans |
5 |
114 |
583 |
8 |
27 |
199 |
1 |
132.2 |
Cedric Benson |
|
Top 5 Toughest vs. RBs |
Rushing |
Receiving |
Fantasy |
||||||
|
Team |
G |
Att |
Yard |
TD |
Rec |
Yard |
TD |
Ftsy Pts Allowed |
Week 6 Opp |
| 28. New York Giants |
5 |
96 |
434 |
3 |
15 |
106 |
0 |
72.0 |
Thomas/Bush/Bell |
| 29. New Orleans Saints |
4 |
76 |
267 |
2 |
22 |
153 |
0 |
54.0 |
Jacobs/Bradshaw |
| 30. Minnesota Vikings |
5 |
113 |
415 |
0 |
22 |
207 |
0 |
62.2 |
Rice/McGahee |
| 31. Tennessee Titans |
5 |
115 |
310 |
2 |
25 |
158 |
0 |
58.8 |
Morris/Moroney |
| 32. Pittsburgh Steelers |
5 |
85 |
289 |
1 |
21 |
190 |
0 |
53.9 |
Lewis/Harrison |
– WR Match-ups to Exploit or Avoid–
|
Top 5 Easiest vs. WRs |
Receiving |
Fantasy |
||||
|
Team |
G |
Rec |
Yard |
TD |
Ftsy Pts Allowed |
Week 6 Opp |
| 1. Tennessee Titans |
5 |
76 |
976 |
10 |
157.6 |
Moss/Welker |
| 2. Jacksonville Jaguars |
5 |
78 |
1,023 |
9 |
156.3 |
Donnie Avery |
| 3. Kansas City Chiefs |
5 |
57 |
974 |
7 |
139.4 |
Santana Moss |
| 4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
5 |
38 |
758 |
10 |
135.8 |
Steve Smith (Car) |
| 5. Arizona Cardinals |
4 |
54 |
748 |
5 |
104.8 |
Housh/Burleson |
|
Top 5 Toughest vs. WRs |
Receiving |
Fantasy |
||||
|
Team |
G |
Rec |
Yard |
TD |
Ftsy Pts Allowed |
Week 6 Opp |
| 28. New York Jets |
5 |
51 |
551 |
2 |
67.1 |
Owens/Evans |
| 29. Denver Broncos |
5 |
51 |
582 |
1 |
64.2 |
Vincent Jackson |
| 30. Buffalo Bills |
5 |
48 |
554 |
1 |
61.4 |
Edwards/Cotchery |
| 31. Carolina Panthers |
4 |
36 |
411 |
1 |
47.1 |
Antonio Bryant |
| 32. New York Giants |
5 |
25 |
258 |
1 |
31.8 |
Colston/Henderson |
– TE Match-ups to Exploit or Avoid–
|
Top 5 Easiest vs. TEs |
Receiving |
Fantasy |
||||
|
Team |
G |
Rec |
Yard |
TD |
Ftsy Pts Allowed |
Week 6 Opp |
| 1. Minnesota Vikings |
5 |
38 |
468 |
4 |
70.8 |
Todd Heap |
| 2. Tennessee Titans |
5 |
37 |
389 |
3 |
56.9 |
Ben Watson |
| 3. Detroit Lions |
5 |
23 |
193 |
6 |
55.3 |
Jermichael Finley |
| 4. St. Louis Rams |
5 |
25 |
300 |
4 |
54.0 |
Marcedes Lewis |
| 5. Buffalo Bills |
5 |
25 |
260 |
4 |
50.0 |
Dustin Keller |
|
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–Team to Team Match-ups to Exploit or Avoid–
Here I will look at some of this week’s mismatches. Net Points (NP) is points scored vs. points against through the first five games. All 4 teams I picked last week trounced their oppositions. This week the match-ups are much closer for the most part.
|
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Oakland Raiders |
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns |
||||
|
PHI NP = 41 |
Oak NP = -81 |
Advantage PHI: 122 Pts |
PIT NP = 15 |
CLE NP = -66 |
Advantage PIT: 81 Pts |
|
New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans |
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions |
||||
|
NEP NP = 13 |
TEN NP = -55 |
Advantage NEP: 68 Pts |
GBP NP = 11 |
DET NP = -59 |
Advantage GBP: 70 Pts |
Week 6 TE Start Sit
Week 6 RB Start Sit
Week 6 WR Start Sit
What I was listening to while I wrote this article:
