Top tier QBs are consistent fantasy point producers. The degree to which passing attacks have exploded has been well chronicled, as has the fact that highly productive QBs have become increasingly prevalent. Signal callers are now entrusted with an ever increasing responsibility to generating sizable yardage and TDs. That in turn has entrenched them atop the fantasy point leader board in recent years. And that will occur again this season, as prolific QB play should be more prevalent than ever for fantasy owners.
Did you know that roughly 75% of the running backs selected among the first six runners off the board have a strong likelihood of not meeting expectation as RB1 and roughly a 50 percent chance of not even providing RB3 production. History doesn't lie, look up the last three seasons average draft position then compare it to the top 6 producers. Most players drafted in the first round (RB) don't live up to the hype.
Now let's look at QB:
Roughly 50% of the QB's selected among the first six passers off the board nearly meet or exceed the previous years numbers. If you look at the top three passers the likelihood of nearly meeting or exceeding increases by 20%, the odds for a predictable outcome are in your favor. So which top tiers do you target and who is the most reliable after the first tier is gone, let's take a look.
A Different Approach
While I could inundate you with endless numbers that underscore this fact, I will simply provide you with results in one category, which should exemplify just how significantly NFL franchises have ramped up their passing attacks. In both 2005 and 2006, only three QBs attempted 500 passes. In 2014, there were a whopping 18 and the number keeps increasing. With so many viable options what is the wisest plan for you to adopt toward securing a QB who can lead you to fantasy victories? I'm a huge proponent of selecting best available player in the first three rounds. Grabbing a QB once the top tier RB have departed the draft board followed by the top tier WR or TE (Gronk). But what if your league mates are not leaning toward drafting a top tier QB in round 1, or even round 2? Well, I hope that happens and I recommend that if possible you wait on that top tier QB as long as possible. If you have drafted with this same group of people in the past when do they normally start taking QB's? Use this as an indication of when you can consider targeting that top tier signal caller. And if you miss out on a top tier QB don't fret, keep reading.
The Value In Waiting To Draft Your QB
Particularly when you remind yourself to emphasize value drafting. Even though the top signal callers will have led your leagues in scoring last season, you can't just look at how many points a player scored. Instead, you must examine how his points compare to the other players at the same position (which is different in every league, which is why you need to print out our cheat sheets to make heads and tails here). That is the essence of value based drafting (VBD). The point totals for the 4 QBs that I consider to be elite - Rodgers, Brees, Brady and Wilson - are much higher than other QBs who start in a standard 12 team league. But how does that difference contrast with the point spread between tiers that you will find at RB and WR? You will find a more sizable decline in points from the top backs as the numbers descend toward the 24th back in a league that starts two RBs, than you will when you compare the top scoring QB to the 12th highest scoring signal caller. Meanwhile, you should also notice a considerable disparity between the top tier wide receivers and the lower sections of your top 24 WRs. After reviewed the scoring that occurred last season from six of the leagues that I participated in, I see the most drop-off at RB. While the difference between the elite QBs and the 12th starting signal caller does not have the severity that I find running backs and wide receivers.
You Should Rush To Draft Your RB1
If you can draft one of the top four or five RB's DO IT. Without question you need a top running back and/or some waiver wire luck to win your fantasy league.
Elite WRs Will Quickly Become Unavailable
You don’t want to spend your season scrambling to compete for points at the WR position. If you fail to garner a highly productive wide receiver early in your draft you'll waste a ton of time during the season trying to make up for it. And there's no assurance that the waiver wire will supply you with sufficient relief.
It's Round 3 - Now What?
Which takes us back to my assertion that you should wait until at least Round 3 to select your QB. However, I am not an advocating that you adopt a rigid mindset of waiting until the middle portion of your drafts to select your QB regardless of any circumstances. You should not be overly fixated on a specific approach to such a large degree that you deny yourself opportunities that arise. Instead, you should always have enough flexibility to examine the flow of your drafts as they develop. Even though that process can occur very rapidly. If an elite QB is still available as you enter round 3, the scoring differential that a this premier signal caller can provide is too important to pass up in favor of a blanket philosophy. Yes, waiting until Round 3 will likely prohibit you from having Rodgers, Brees, Brady or Wilson on your roster. But it is still possible that one of these signal callers will still be available. And if so, you can grab him, maybe even in the late 2nd if your draft dictates that. Then, you will have a "big three" if you will, consisting of your QB1, RB1, and WR1. But if you are comfortable securing a second back or a second wideout in Round 3 you can certainly justify waiting a little longer before choosing your QB. But personally, I'm only waiting past round three for QB if I know I can get a top signal caller in the 4th or 5th.
Be sure to have your draft results reviewed by our staff in the forum under the fantasy football section. We will help you make any necessary changes via the waiver wire or trade.