Fact, top tier quarterbacks are consistent fantasy point producers. The degree to which passing attacks have exploded has been well chronicled and it's to the point that it goes without saying. Signal callers are now entrusted with an ever increasing responsibility to generating sizable yardage and touch downs. That in turn has entrenched them atop the fantasy point leader board in recent years. And that will occur again this season, as prolific QB play should be more prevalent than ever for fantasy owners. Let's take a look at my 2018 quarterback draft strategy for standard and PPR 10 to 14 team leagues with 1 quarterback position.
Reliable Production Based on ADP
Roughly 50% of the first 6 quarterbacks drafted nearly meet or exceed the previous years numbers. If you look at the top three passers, the likelihood of meeting or exceeding the previous years fantasy points is 70%, not to shabby of a bet. This means tiers are important and the average draft position can be used to determine where that quarterback may be available in your draft. For the 2018 fantasy football draft, here are the top 6 quarterbacks and the likelihood they will meet or exceed last years fantasy points.
|Rank||ADP||Player||POS||Team||% Chance to Meet Or Exceed|
Obviously you need to be cautious with Wentz, so pay attention to the news. At the time of this writing he's jogging but that reconstructed knee could be an issue well into the regular season.
A Different Approach
With each passing season the stats don't lie, NFL franchises are increasing their passing attacks. In both 2005 and 2006, only three quarterbacks attempted 500 passes. In 2014, there were a whopping 18 and the number keeps increasing. With so many viable options what is the wisest plan for you to adopt toward securing your first quarterback? I'm a huge proponent of selecting best available player in the first three rounds. Grabbing a QB once the top tier RB have departed the draft board followed by the top tier WR or TE.
However, in many leagues the top 3 quarterbacks won't be selected until the 3rd or 4th round? This is an ideal situation and I recommend that if possible you wait on your first quarterback pick as long as possible. If you have drafted with this same group of people in the past it would behoove you to review their drafting tenancies. Their tenancies will give you insight as to when you can consider targeting your first quarterback. And if you miss out on a top tier QB don't fret, here are some quarterbacks I like that should easily fall to you past the 5th round in most 1 QB leagues.
|9||6.09||Jimmy Garoppolo (if he falls to the 8th)||QB||SF|
|10||7.12||Jared Goff (could be a top 5)||QB||LAR|
|11||8.1||Andrew Luck (injury concern)||QB||IND|
|12||9.04||Ben Roethlisberger (only if he falls to the 10th)||QB||PIT|
|13||9.05||Philip Rivers (upside for sure)||QB||LAC|
|14||9.08||Matt Ryan (can he rebound?)||QB||ATL|
|15||9.12||Matthew Stafford (lots of upside)||QB||DET|
|16||10.09||Derek Carr (lots of upside)||QB||OAK|
|17||11.04||Pat Mahomes (unknown but worth a late round pick)||QB||KC|
Value In Waiting To Draft Your First Quarterback
You can't just look at how many points a player scored. Instead, you must examine how his points compare to the other players at the same position. We highlight this in our online cheat sheets so you can easily make head or tails of the situation. That is the essence of value based drafting. The point totals for the top tier quarterbacks is much higher than the mid-tier quarterbacks. But how does that difference contrast between tiers that you will find at RB and WR? You will find a more sizable decline in points from the top backs as the numbers descend toward the 24th running back than you will when you compare the top scoring QB to the 12th highest scoring QB. Meanwhile, you should also notice a considerable disparity between the top tier wide receivers and the lower sections of your top 24 WRs.
Food For Thought
With RBBC becoming more and more prevalent you really have no choice but to draft those 3 down backs first and in most leagues the drop off is greatest between the upper and lower tier RB's. If you can draft one of the top four or five running backs do it! Without question you need a top running back and/or some waiver wire luck to win your fantasy league. Elite wide receivers will quickly become unavailable. If you end up "hurting" at the wide receiver position chances are you will lose your league as this is one of the hardest positions to address with consistency via the waiver wire. If you fail to garner a highly productive wide receiver early in your draft you'll waste a ton of time during the season trying to make up for it. And there's no assurance that the waiver wire will supply you with sufficient relief.
First Quarterback Pick In The 4th Round
Which leads to the assertion that you should wait until at least the 4th round to select your first quarterback, and that's only if he's a top 3 quarterback. However, I am not an advocating that you adopt a rigid mindset of waiting until the middle portion of your drafts to select your first quarterback regardless of the flow of the draft. You should not be overly fixated on a specific approach to such a large degree that you deny yourself opportunities that arise. Instead, you should always have enough flexibility to examine the flow of your draft as it develops. If an elite quarterback is still available as you enter round 4, the scoring differential that a premier signal caller can provide is too important to pass up in favor of a blanket philosophy. Yes, waiting until 4th round could prohibit you from drafting a top tier quarterback. But it is very possible that one of these signal callers will still be available. Maybe even in the late 3rd if the other top 2 quarterbacks have already been selected. Now you need to read our backup quarterback draft strategy.