Top tier quarterbacks are consistent fantasy point producers. The degree to which passing attacks have exploded has been well chronicled, as has the fact that highly productive QBs have become increasingly prevalent. Signal callers are now entrusted with an ever increasing responsibility to generating sizable yardage and touch downs. That in turn has entrenched them atop the fantasy point leader board in recent years. And that will occur again this season, as prolific QB play should be more prevalent than ever for fantasy owners.
Reliable Production Based on ADP
Did you know that roughly 75% of the running backs selected among the first six runners off the board have a strong likelihood of not meeting expectation as RB1 and roughly a 50 percent chance of not even providing RB3 production. History doesn't lie, look up the last three seasons average draft position then compare it to the top 6 producers. Most players drafted in the first round RB don't live up to the hype. Now let's look at the quarterback position. Roughly 50% of the QB's selected among the first six passers off the board nearly meet or exceed the previous years numbers. If you look at the top three passers, the likelihood of meeting or exceeding increases by 20% so the odds for a predictable outcome are in your favor. So which tier do you target and who is the most reliable after the first tier is gone?
A Different Approach
With each passing season the stats don't lie, NFL franchises are increasing their passing attacks. In both 2005 and 2006, only three quarterbacks attempted 500 passes. In 2014, there were a whopping 18 and the number keeps increasing. With so many viable options what is the wisest plan for you to adopt toward securing your first quarterback? I'm a huge proponent of selecting best available player in the first three rounds. Grabbing a QB once the top tier RB have departed the draft board followed by the top tier WR or TE. But what if your league mates are not leaning toward drafting a top tier QB in round 1, or even round 2? Well, I hope that happens and I recommend that if possible you wait on your first quarterback pick as long as possible. If you have drafted with this same group of people in the past when do they normally start picking quarterbacks? Use this as an indication of when you can consider targeting your first quarterback draft pick. And if you miss out on a top tier QB don't fret, keep reading.
Value In Waiting To Draft Your First Quarterback
Particularly when you remind yourself to emphasize value drafting. Even though the top signal callers will have led your leagues in scoring last season, you can't just look at how many points a player scored. Instead, you must examine how his points compare to the other players at the same position. We highlight this in our online cheat sheets so you can easily make head or tails of the situation. That is the essence of value based drafting (VBD). The point totals for the top tier quarterbacks is much higher than the mid-tier quarterbacks. But how does that difference contrast with the point spread between tiers that you will find at RB and WR? You will find a more sizable decline in points from the top backs as the numbers descend toward the 24th running back than you will when you compare the top scoring QB to the 12th highest scoring QB. Meanwhile, you should also notice a considerable disparity between the top tier wide receivers and the lower sections of your top 24 WRs. After reviewed the scoring that occurred last season from six of the leagues that I participated in I see the most drop-off at RB.
Food For Thought
You should make it a priority to draft a top tier running back over your first quarterback pick. If you can draft one of the top four or five running backs do it! Without question you need a top running back and/or some waiver wire luck to win your fantasy league. Elite wide receivers will quickly become unavailable. You don’t want to spend your season scrambling to compete for points at the WR position. If you fail to garner a highly productive wide receiver early in your draft you'll waste a ton of time during the season trying to make up for it. And there's no assurance that the waiver wire will supply you with sufficient relief.
First Quarterback Pick In The 4th Round
Which takes us back to my assertion that you should wait until at least Round 4 to select your first quarterback. However, I am not an advocating that you adopt a rigid mindset of waiting until the middle portion of your drafts to select your first quarterback regardless of the flow of the draft. You should not be overly fixated on a specific approach to such a large degree that you deny yourself opportunities that arise. Instead, you should always have enough flexibility to examine the flow of your draft as it develops. If an elite quarterback is still available as you enter round 4, the scoring differential that a premier signal caller can provide is too important to pass up in favor of a blanket philosophy. Yes, waiting until Round 4 could prohibit you from drafting a top tier quarterback. But it is very possible that one of these signal callers will still be available. Maybe even in the late 3rd if quarterbacks start flying off the board early. Be sure to read about our backup quarterback draft strategy.
Be sure to have your draft results reviewed by our staff in the forum under the fantasy football section. We will help you make any necessary changes via the waiver wire or trade.