I am, and have been a die hard loyal Pittsburgh Steelers fan from the moment as a child I saw my first NFL game between the Steel Curtain and the Green Bay Packers. Yet I'm saying Troy Polamalu is going to be one of fantasy football's 2010 IDP busts. Blasphemy! The idea that the Flyin' Hawaiian could be a bust is absolute heresy. Or is it?
Don't misunderstand this bold statement. I love's me some Polamalu. He's one of the most exciting football players to watch. Seeing his hair spread out behind him like a mini-cape as he launches himself around the football field is truly a treat.
But Troy's ability to ignite his team and inspire the Steeler's defense does not necessarily make him a valuable IDP commodity.
Let's go behind the numbers:
Current Defensive Back Ranking: 20 (based on a 16 game season)
Current ADP: FF Toolbox - 8th ? MyFantasyLeague - 11th
Fans have a lot of faith in Polamalu to do something he's never done before, which is end the season as a Top 10 IDP DB.
Over the last 5 seasons this is what Troy has done for fantasy owners:
2009 - He got off to a great start, but he got hurt and played only 5 games all season. He ended the year as the 167th best fantasy DB. If we extrapolate his numbers from these 5 games he'd have ended as the 10th best DB, but Polamalu has played in all 16 games only twice in the last half decade, including...
2008 - Troy stayed healthy and started all 16 games. His final fantasy DB rank? 21st
2007 - He managed only 11 games, and finished the season 109th overall.
2006 - Another incomplete season, with 13 games. His final fantasy DB rank: 48th
2005 - The only other complete 16 game season in his last five seasons. His fantasy ranking: 13th
There is a lot of expectation by IDP players that Troy can 1) stay healthy, and 2) finish with better fantasy numbers than he has ever done before.
Could it happen? Perhaps. If he can stay healthy (odds say he has a 40% chance at a full season). His team will spend more time on defense early on this year. Still the likelihood of him having his best fantasy season ever is not realistic.
Based on his current ADP and best-case anticipated performance, he will be a moderate fantasy bust IF he plays all 16 games.