While we seldom pick our quarterbacks first in drafts, they are almost inevitably our top fantasy producers. We're able to wait because there is pretty solid depth at QB for fantasy purposes, especially heading into 2010. There isn't a name in the top 12-15 QBs you can't feel good about drafting as your starter.
In fact, unless you're dead set on Brees, Rodgers, or Manning early on, I would argue that you could wait until as late as the 7th or 8th round to grab a quality fantasy QB like Joe Flacco or Eli Manning, or even the 10th to 12th rounds for guys like Brett Favre and Donovan McNabb.
When you get ready to draft, make sure you have some basic idea of the ADP going in. It can prove invaluable for finding value at each position. And let's face it, besides your uncanny gift for fantasy brilliance, and a healthy dose of luck, it's those value picks that make the difference between a champion and an also ran.
Here are three under, and three overvalued Fantasy QBs heading into the 2010 season.
--Undervalued--
Chad Henne, MIA - Henne had very solid numbers in his first season under center. He ended with the 22nd best fantasy rank, but he could easily move up 8-10 slots in 2010. He only had a dozen passing TDs in 2009. With a full season, and a stud WR, Brandon Marshall, in the mix, Henne could best guys going ahead of him like Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford.
Brett Favre, MIN - Hard to imagine that "the legend" would ever be undervalued, but right now he's going as the 16th QB drafted. Detroit's Matthew Stafford is going 14th if that gives you some idea of just how much he's being dismissed this season. The old man was good for 6th in fantasy scoring in 2009. Even with a marginal drop-off, 16th is quite overlooked. You can get him at second QB rates (10th to 12 round) and maybe end up with a top 10 QB. The only logical argument for his major value decrease is the belief he won't return for one more year, and no one I've talked to around the league believes he's done. He just love's to tease, but make no mistake, he'll be there this fall.
David Garrard, JAX - Most fantasy owners would likely be surprised to know that this oft maligned if not outright forgotten QB has finished the last 3 seasons as the 15th, 9th and 16th best fantasy producer. Yet, this year, like every year, he gets no love; going as the 27th QB drafted. If he were any other QB he'd be considered a sleeper with that kind of fantasy consistency. He's certainly not ever going to put up starter numbers, but he's a very worthy fantasy QB2 or back up.
--Overvalued--
Matt Ryan, ATL - Don't misunderstand. I like Ryan. The kid's got talent and good weapons around him. He didn't have a bad year in 2009, but he didn't progress. I expect he'll make some forward progress in 2010, but certainly not enough to make him worthy of being the 10th QB selected in the draft, which is exactly how much owners are overpaying for him.
Matthew Stafford, DET - The second year pro has an immense amount of talent, but he plays on one of the league's worst teams. His receiving corp begins and ends with Calvin Johnson. So how is it possible Stafford's ADP is 14th? Ahead of Favre, Ben Roethlisberger, Henne and Carson Palmer. He had the 25th best fantasy value in 2009. He's not likely to leap to 14th in 2010.
Kevin Kolb, PHI - I have him ranked as the 7th best QB going into 2010 and he's being drafted 9th, yet I consider him Overvalued? Wonky, I know, but I have Kolb ranked in the top 10 because of my faith in what he can do fantasywise in 2010. The fact that he's being drafted as if he's already performed up to those expectations is a recipe for disaster. Some see Kolb as a sleeper headed into 2010, but if he's a sleeper, someone forgot to tell those are drafting him as a top 10 pick. Based on what he's done in the past, he should be going in the 10th or later rounds, so even if he performs up to his current ADP, he is overvalued because he should be drafted much later. Paying full price and breaking even when you should be on sale is neither sleeper-worthy nor a value.
ADP rankings from myfantasyleague.com and FFToolbox.com
