Week 5 TE Rankings: Sit ’em or Start ’em Edition
Monday's game between the Packers and Vikings was a great way to end the week and the first quarter of the season. Both team's tight ends found the endzone, making many fantasy owners who took a chance on Vinsanthe Shiancoe and Jermichael Finley very happy. Time to start the second quarter of our fantasy football season. This week we have the Packers, Bears, Saints and Chargers on bye week. That means Antonio Gates, Greg Olsen, Jermichael Finley, and Jeremy Shockey will all be out. Before we get to potential fill-ins this week, let's take a look at my week 4 start and sit suggestions. I recommended starting Anthony Fasano, Greg Olsen, Jermichael Finley, Kevin Boss and Vernon Davis. Fasano turned out to be a big bust, and if he couldn't put up points against the Bills last week, his fantasy value in 2009 is nil. I got that call wrong, though statistically he should have done something. Dump him. A lot of people were skeptical about my Finley pick, but he ended up with 128 yards and a touchdown. Third best TE performance of the week. Vernon Davis only had 43 yards receiving, but he scored, which is what I was banking on. He ended at 8th best last week. Kevin Boss ended with 41 yards, but unlike Davis, he never found the endzone as I'd hoped, but he still ended in the top 20 last week at TE. My other pick was Greg Olsen who only had one catch, but it was for a touchdown (good for 14th best TE this week). Many experts including some of my colleagues at Top Fantasy, seem to think it's time to dump Olsen as a bust (read Mike Sholty's Risers and Fallers), but I argue just the opposite. I think this is a prime time to snag him on the cheap, as I argued in my Blue Light Special article last week. Olsen has the talent, but what he's missed this season is opportunity. Defenses are keying in on him. But as the young receivers begin to spread those defenses, Olsen will see more action. He only caught one pass last week for a TD, but he was targeted 7 times. Many owners are ready to give up on him, which means he's ripe for a steal, especially with him being on bye week, in week 5. He's top 10 in targets, but his conversion ratio is terrible. That has little to do with his ability. That ratio will change moving forward. Bank on it.
So of my start suggestions, only Fasano turned out to be a major bust. Let's take a look at who I recommended sitting and how they performed in week 4?
- Jason Witten - 4 receptions, 41 yards, no TDs
- John Carlson - 5 receptions, 39 yards, no TDs
- Jeremy Shockey - 4 receptions, 34 yards, no TDs
- Zach Miller - 3 receptions, 33 yards, no TDs
- Randy McMichael - 2 receptions, 17 yards, no TDs
All five had bad days, with none of them finding the endzone. I got a couple of angry e-mails about my call to bench Witten and Carlson, but as you can see, four of my suggested Starts, outperformed all five of my suggested Sits. Even the top guys have bad days against certain defenses.
--Week 5 ~ TE Start Suggestions--
What we're looking for here is guys other than your big guns, like Dallas Clark, Tony Gonzalez and Witten. We expect those guys to perform most weeks. I'm suggesting lesser guys with good match-ups.
Robert Royal, CLE - There's a name you won't see on many rosters. In week one against the Vikings, who are the league's worst at surrendering points to TEs (as we saw Monday night), Royal notched 9 targets, 4 receptions, 60 yards and a TD, with Brady Quinn under center. This week the Browns face the Bills, who despite giving up nothing to Fasano last week, are still second worst in giving up points to opposing TEs. Royal also has the more pass friendly Derek Anderson at QB this week. This could be a solid week for Royal as a bye week fill-in, who is available on most waiver lists. In fact you could save your waiver spot and grab him as a free agent before Sunday.
Heath Miller, PIT - Miller is a hit or miss TE. He had a big game opening night, then disappeared for two weeks fantasywise, then exploded Sunday night with 2 TDs. He is still available in many leagues after going dormant for 2 weeks, but he'll be a top waiver grab this week, and in week 5 he faces the Lions who have surrendered more TDs (5) to tight ends than any other team. One thing is for sure, if Ben throws the ball Miller's way, it's almost a sure catch, as he's converted 24 of his 27 targets to catches. That's 89%.
Dustin Keller, NYJ - Keller has been a pleasant fantasy surprise for owners who took a chance on him as a starter or bench depth. He's 14th in targets, and he just needs to covert a few more of those into redzone catches to get into the top 10 at TE. This week the Jets face the Dolphins who have given up 320 yards and 2 TDs to tight ends. I like Keller to find the endzone again this week.
Brandon Pettigrew, DET - With Troy Polamalu sidelined, the Steelers defense against TEs has been bad. So IF he does not return this week, Pettigrew could do well. Last week he was targeted 10 times, and had 60 yards. If Stafford plays and Polamalu does not, Pettigrew makes a nice sleeper bye week play.
Vinsanthe Shiancoe, MIN - Favre hasn't gone to him much, but when he does it's often in the redzone, as we saw against the Packers Monday night. This week Shiancoe gets the Rams defense which has allowed 3 Tds and 251 yards to TEs, including 2 to Vernon Davis in week 3. Howl at the moon. baby!
--Week 5 ~ Sit Suggestions--
Bo Scaife/Alge Crumpler, TEN - The Titans like to throw to their tight ends, but Indy will have none of that. The colts are the best at limiting TE production; 91 yards, no scores. Don't play either of these guys this week. No one is that desperate.
Ben Watson/Chris Baker, NEP - Like the Titans, the Patriots like hitting their TEs for short bursts and endzone packages. The Broncos have stifled TEs so far giving up only 93 yards and no TDs.
Kellen Winslow, TBB - The Bucs have gone to Winslow often this season, but lately he's not been producing. Add to that mix, a rookie QB and an Eagles defense ranked forth against TEs this season (103 yards and no TDs), and you have a recipe for a fantasy blackhole. Sit him this week.
Kevin Boss, NYG - Boss has been anything but the boss so far in 2009. You'd think he'd be ripe for a breakout game against the Raiders, but for all their woes, Oakland has been strong against TE production, giving up 200 yards but no scores. Boss' QB, Eli Manning is hurting, so who knows what effect that will have, or if he'll even play in week 5. Play it safe, and tell the Boss no this week.
--Fantasy Spotlight--
Sean Ryan, KCC - It is perhaps needless to point out how bad the Kansas City Chiefs have been so far, but one bright spot has been tight end Sean Ryan. When Tony Gonzalez left for Atlanta many expected Brad Cottam (myself included) to fill that void, but so far, Ryan has stepped to the plate. As you can see below, he's ranked 18th so far, and has two TDs. In week 4 he was the Chiefs leading receiver. As QB Matt Cassell gets more familiar with coach Todd Haley's offense, I expect Ryan will play a larger role, especially with Larry Johnson and the running game at a stand still.
--Current Statistical TE Rankings through Week 4 (Actual stats)--
| Player Name |
Team |
G |
Targets |
Rec |
Yards |
TDs |
Fantasy Points |
| 1. Dallas Clark |
IND |
4 |
33 |
26 |
364 |
2 |
48.4 |
| 2. Antonio Gates |
SD |
4 |
35 |
24 |
349 |
2 |
46.9 |
| 3. Vernon Davis |
SF |
4 |
27 |
17 |
211 |
3 |
39.1 |
| 4. Chris Cooley |
WAS |
4 |
32 |
22 |
254 |
2 |
37.4 |
| 5. Brent Celek |
PHI |
3 |
27 |
22 |
245 |
2 |
36.5 |
| 6. John Carlson |
SEA |
4 |
32 |
20 |
208 |
2 |
32.8 |
| 7. Owen Daniels |
HOU |
4 |
28 |
17 |
202 |
2 |
32.2 |
| 8. Heath Miller |
PIT |
4 |
27 |
24 |
181 |
2 |
30.1 |
| 9. Marcedes Lewis |
JAC |
4 |
18 |
11 |
179 |
2 |
29.9 |
| 10. Ben Watson |
NE |
4 |
17 |
12 |
174 |
2 |
29.4 |
| 11. Todd Heap |
BAL |
4 |
22 |
14 |
170 |
2 |
29.0 |
| 12. Jeremy Shockey |
NO |
4 |
24 |
18 |
162 |
2 |
28.2 |
| 13. Tony Gonzalez |
ATL |
3 |
18 |
13 |
160 |
2 |
28.0 |
| 14. Kellen Winslow |
TB |
4 |
30 |
17 |
155 |
2 |
27.5 |
| 15. Jason Witten |
DAL |
4 |
27 |
23 |
212 |
1 |
27.2 |
| 16. Jermichael Finley |
GB |
4 |
15 |
11 |
190 |
1 |
25.0 |
| 17. Dustin Keller |
NYJ |
4 |
21 |
12 |
171 |
1 |
23.1 |
| 18. Sean Ryan |
KC |
4 |
18 |
11 |
97 |
2 |
21.7 |
| 19. Greg Olsen |
CHI |
4 |
25 |
10 |
94 |
2 |
21.4 |
| 20. Dante Rosario |
CAR |
3 |
10 |
6 |
89 |
2 |
20.9 |
| 21. Visanthe Shiancoe |
MIN |
4 |
14 |
9 |
67 |
2 |
18.7 |
| 22. Daniel Fells |
STL |
4 |
9 |
4 |
61 |
2 |
18.1 |
| 23. Kellen Davis |
CHI |
4 |
8 |
7 |
58 |
2 |
17.8 |
| 24. Will Heller |
DET |
4 |
12 |
7 |
93 |
1 |
15.3 |
| 25. Robert Royal |
CLE |
4 |
17 |
8 |
93 |
1 |
15.3 |
| 26. Zach Miller |
OAK |
4 |
20 |
11 |
146 |
0 |
14.6 |
| 27. Kevin Boss |
NYG |
4 |
14 |
10 |
143 |
0 |
14.3 |
| 28. Brandon Pettigrew |
DET |
4 |
19 |
10 |
131 |
0 |
13.1 |
| 29. Tony Scheffler |
DEN |
4 |
8 |
6 |
71 |
1 |
13.1 |
| 30. Jerramy Stevens |
TB |
4 |
18 |
8 |
71 |
1 |
13.1 |
What was playing on my CD player as I wrote this week's article:
