Ladies and gentlemen, there has been a Michael Turner sighting in San Francisco this weekend. Many fantasy owners who drafted him in the top 3 overall have been anxiously awaiting his arrival. Most of you are already well aware that I pegged Turner as a first round bust this season, and despite Sunday's 3 TD outburst, I'm still very skeptical. I give most of the credit to the complete meltdown of the San Francisco 49ers defense that was ranked in the top 5 through the first four weeks. Turner didn't show me any great bursts of speed, and despite his touchdown total, he did not manage to break the 100 yard mark again. He's only broken 100 once this season in Week 2, when he hit 105. He's only getting about 80 yards per game, and his YPC average is hovering at 3.7 so far. This week he faces Chicago. Let's see if he can put together a couple of 100 yard games and prove me wrong.
The other first round running back I pegged as a bust was DeAngelo Williams. Given how poorly QB Jake Delhomme has played so far, it seemed only logical they'd have to feed the ball to Williams all day against the middling Redskins defense. Instead he had 18 rushs for 40 yards, at a 2.2 YPC average.
That's why they play the games, as they say. If statistics could reliably predict outcome week in and week out, there would be no point to watching. Monday night's game was yet another example. While I expected Ronnie Brown might find the endzone, I certainly would have bet against more than once. Likewise, I expected nearly zero production from Thomas Jones, which is what I got, if you take away those two TDs. He had only 42 rushing yards. Go figure.
Onward to week 6. This week we have 49ers, Cowboys, Colts and Dolphins on bye. That means we'll be without the aforementioned Ronnie Brown, his sidekick Ricky Williams, as well as Frank Gore, Glenn Coffee, Tashard Choice, Felix Jones, Marion Barber, Donald Brown and Joseph Addai.
--Week 6 ~ Start 'em--
Knowshon Moreno, DEN - The Broncos are 5-0. Maybe the end of the world is coming after all.With Correll Buckhalter sidelined, the rookie got a chance to lead the horses to a win, and he did. While he never scored, he did rack up 124 total yards against the Patriots. In week 6 he faces the San Diego Chargers who have surrendered 197 yards and nearly 2 TDs per game to opposing running backs. My guess is Buckhalter will sit out this week as well, but even if he plays I still see Moreno getting 100 yards and a score.
Rashard Mendenhall, PIT - For the third straight week, the sophomore RB should post fantasy gravy. This week he gets the second worst team against the run; the Browns. Yes, still second worst even after keeping the Ravens RBs in check. Look for at least 1 TD and 100+ yards. Then if you're fantasy savvy you'll follow my advice in my Sports Blog Nation article this week, and trade him before he faces the Vikings in week 7, then goes on bye.
Brian Westbrook/LeSean McCoy, PHI - I'm recommending playing both this week because we saw that two RBs (Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw) can have fantasy productive games against this week's victim, the Oakland Raiders. The New York Giant's backs combined for 240 yards and 2 scores. And neither of them are the pass catching backs that McCoy and Westbrook are.
Cedric Benson, CIN - As much distaste as I have for this schlub, the Cardiac Cats just keep giving him the rock, and he keeps putting up the yards. No one has had more touches than his 111. He's averaging 110 total yards each game. This week he faces the poor rush defense of the Houston Texans. His numbers appear to say that he is for real, so that would make him almost a lock for another 100 yard one score game day in week 6.
Thomas Jones, NYJ - Yet another guy who leaves me cold, but if the Buffalo Bills can make Jamal Lewis and his old legs look good, Jones could have a nice fantasy day as well. It seems like the Jets like throwing their way downfield then handing it to Jones to punch in. He should have an 80 yard game with 1-2 TDs against the Bills.
--Week 6 ~ Sit 'em--
Ray Rice/Willis McGahee, BAL - As we saw in week 5, the running duo can be quasi-shut down. Willis McGahee was invisible against the Bengals. Only Ray Rice showed up, withhis first ever reception TD. However, Rice only rushed for 69 yards, and in fantasy, his value is his yardage, with McGahee getting the redzone touches. Rice had a nice day with 7 receptions, which made his day in Week 5. This week they face the Minnesota Vikings who have yet to allow a rushing touchdown through 5 games. Of course the law of probability would suggest that something has to give at some point, and this could be the week, but do you want to bank on which guy finally breaks through? If either does, it's likely to be Rice, but if you have a more solid option, this may be a week to use someone else. Definitely bench McGahee this week.
Jamal Lewis/Jerome Harrison, CLE - After two solid weeks of running the ball for the Browns, this is the week to keep them both on the bench. The Browns face the Pittsburgh Steelers this week; the league's best defense against the rush. Add to that, we don't know which RB will be getting the ball. Despite his week four performance, Jerome Harrison got relegated to the back of the bus hen Jamal Lewis returned. If the Lions' Kevin Smith couldn't muster much against the Steelers, these guys shouldn't have a chance.
Sammy Morris, NEP - Morris has become the go-to-guy in New England with Fred Taylor out, but that likely won't help him against Tennessee this week. Despite their woeful 0-5 start, the rush defense has been a lone bright spot. They are ranked second at stopping the run. This game should be about Tom Brady trying to shred the Titans secondary. I wouldn't expect much from Morris this week. Pass-catching Kevin Faulk has a better chance to score.
Larry Johnson, KCC - It seems almost like cheating to list Johnson as a sit, because he's been a sit all season. He's currently ranked 46th among RBs in fantasy points. He's rushed for 226 yards in 5 games (45 a game) at a 2.4 YPC average. He has no touchdowns. Blame him, blame the offensive line, it doesn't matter. Right now this is one Johnson that shouldn't be getting any fantasy love from anyone. This week he face's the Redskins who managed to shut down DeAngelo Williams last week.
Julius Jones, SEA - Like Johnson, this one almost goes without saying. I said at the start of the season that Jones would explode against the St. Louis Rams then go into hibernation for the winter. So far he hasn't poked his head out of his cave since week one. While the Arizona Cardinals defense won't strike fear into the hearts of many, no team has allowed less rushing yards to opposing RBs than the 238 the Cards have given up. That's less than 60 a game. Since his week one explosion Jones has only run for 168 yards, or 42 a week. If Jones does make fantasy noise this week it will likely be as a pass catcher, which is the Cards area of weakness with running backs.
–RB Top 50 Statistical Rankings through Week 5 (Actual stats)–
|
Player |
Team |
G |
Att |
Rush Yard |
TD |
Target |
Rec |
Rec Yard |
TD |
Fantasy Points |
| 1. Adrian Peterson |
MIN |
5 |
99 |
481 |
7 |
10 |
10 |
62 |
0 |
96.3 |
| 2. Ronnie Brown |
MIA |
5 |
93 |
443 |
6 |
12 |
9 |
64 |
0 |
86.7 |
| 3. Chris Johnson |
TEN |
5 |
78 |
468 |
2 |
24 |
16 |
126 |
1 |
77.4 |
| 4. Maurice Jones-Drew |
JAC |
5 |
75 |
330 |
5 |
30 |
21 |
120 |
0 |
75.0 |
| 5. Cedric Benson |
CIN |
5 |
111 |
487 |
3 |
12 |
8 |
65 |
0 |
73.2 |
| 6. Ray Rice |
BAL |
5 |
63 |
364 |
1 |
32 |
23 |
208 |
1 |
69.2 |
| 7. Willis McGahee |
BAL |
5 |
38 |
199 |
5 |
12 |
8 |
58 |
2 |
67.7 |
| 8. Michael Turner |
ATL |
4 |
87 |
323 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
0 |
62.8 |
| 9. Ricky Williams |
MIA |
5 |
61 |
316 |
2 |
14 |
11 |
132 |
1 |
62.8 |
| 10. Kevin Smith |
DET |
5 |
94 |
287 |
3 |
23 |
19 |
143 |
0 |
61.0 |
| 11. Joseph Addai |
IND |
5 |
62 |
210 |
3 |
28 |
26 |
153 |
1 |
60.3 |
| 12. Fred Jackson |
BUF |
5 |
83 |
363 |
0 |
28 |
20 |
177 |
1 |
60.0 |
| 13. Thomas Jones |
NYJ |
5 |
74 |
271 |
5 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
57.2 |
| 14. Ahmad Bradshaw |
NYG |
5 |
58 |
375 |
2 |
7 |
6 |
74 |
0 |
56.9 |
| 15. Steven Jackson |
STL |
5 |
104 |
451 |
0 |
23 |
14 |
92 |
0 |
54.3 |
| 16. Frank Gore |
SF |
3 |
39 |
241 |
3 |
11 |
8 |
57 |
1 |
53.8 |
| 17. Marion Barber |
DAL |
4 |
58 |
297 |
3 |
5 |
4 |
58 |
0 |
53.5 |
| 18. Julius Jones |
SEA |
5 |
69 |
285 |
1 |
14 |
12 |
67 |
2 |
53.2 |
| 19. Steve Slaton |
HOU |
5 |
72 |
231 |
1 |
22 |
17 |
180 |
1 |
53.1 |
| 20. Knowshon Moreno |
DEN |
5 |
81 |
337 |
1 |
9 |
8 |
69 |
1 |
52.6 |
| 21. Rashard Mendenhall |
PIT |
5 |
51 |
287 |
3 |
5 |
5 |
55 |
0 |
52.2 |
| 22. Clinton Portis |
WAS |
5 |
91 |
338 |
1 |
8 |
6 |
42 |
1 |
50.0 |
| 23. Ryan Grant |
GB |
4 |
67 |
257 |
2 |
11 |
9 |
83 |
0 |
46.0 |
| 24. Tim Hightower |
ARI |
4 |
38 |
126 |
2 |
30 |
25 |
202 |
0 |
44.8 |
| 25. DeAngelo Williams |
CAR |
4 |
59 |
220 |
2 |
15 |
11 |
103 |
0 |
44.3 |
| 26. Tashard Choice |
DAL |
5 |
44 |
225 |
2 |
17 |
12 |
92 |
0 |
43.7 |
| 27. Brandon Jacobs |
NYG |
5 |
100 |
355 |
1 |
8 |
4 |
21 |
0 |
43.6 |
| 28. Pierre Thomas |
NO |
3 |
33 |
212 |
3 |
5 |
5 |
42 |
0 |
43.4 |
| 29. C. Buckhalter |
DEN |
4 |
37 |
267 |
1 |
11 |
8 |
96 |
0 |
42.3 |
| 30. Matt Forte |
CHI |
4 |
71 |
271 |
1 |
16 |
13 |
92 |
0 |
42.3 |
| 31. Donald Brown |
IND |
5 |
44 |
154 |
2 |
9 |
7 |
138 |
0 |
41.2 |
| 32. Cadillac Williams |
TB |
5 |
48 |
199 |
1 |
18 |
15 |
89 |
1 |
40.8 |
| 33. Darren Sproles |
SD |
4 |
37 |
90 |
1 |
22 |
15 |
197 |
1 |
40.7 |
| 34. Fred Taylor |
NE |
4 |
45 |
201 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
17 |
0 |
33.8 |
| 35. Reggie Bush |
NO |
4 |
36 |
148 |
1 |
22 |
14 |
121 |
0 |
32.9 |
| 36. Michael Bush |
OAK |
5 |
42 |
157 |
2 |
8 |
8 |
51 |
0 |
32.8 |
| 37. Chester Taylor |
MIN |
5 |
28 |
69 |
1 |
26 |
21 |
187 |
0 |
31.6 |
| 38. Glen Coffee |
SF |
5 |
71 |
183 |
1 |
15 |
10 |
69 |
0 |
31.2 |
| 39. Leon Washington |
NYJ |
5 |
55 |
225 |
0 |
18 |
12 |
85 |
0 |
31.0 |
| 40. Sammy Morris |
NE |
5 |
30 |
109 |
1 |
15 |
11 |
134 |
0 |
30.3 |
| 41. Mike Bell |
NO |
2 |
45 |
229 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
9 |
0 |
29.8 |
| 42. Brian Westbrook |
PHI |
3 |
32 |
134 |
1 |
11 |
8 |
39 |
1 |
29.3 |
| 43. Felix Jones |
DAL |
3 |
21 |
212 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
20 |
0 |
29.2 |
| 44. Jerome Harrison |
CLE |
4 |
56 |
202 |
0 |
20 |
14 |
88 |
0 |
29.0 |
| 45. LeSean McCoy |
PHI |
4 |
40 |
162 |
1 |
13 |
8 |
62 |
0 |
28.4 |
| 46. Larry Johnson |
KC |
5 |
93 |
226 |
0 |
12 |
8 |
57 |
0 |
28.3 |
| 47. Jamal Lewis |
CLE |
3 |
56 |
212 |
0 |
4 |
4 |
55 |
0 |
26.7 |
| 48. Jonathan Stewart |
CAR |
4 |
33 |
138 |
1 |
9 |
8 |
69 |
0 |
26.7 |
| 49. Willie Parker |
PIT |
3 |
52 |
159 |
0 |
4 |
4 |
44 |
1 |
26.3 |
| 50. Darren McFadden |
OAK |
4 |
47 |
145 |
1 |
13 |
7 |
53 |
0 |
25. |
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What was in my CD player while writing this week's column:
