I Pick 5th... HELP

Discussion in 'Fantasy Football Advice' started by Cardinal Carnage, Aug 30, 2009.

  1. pctrips

    pctrips Pro Bowler

    I did some research, more than I really should have, but it's not bad to help with this year.

    Again, just to be clear, this is only my recommendation in leagues where QB's get 6 points per TD. In normal scoring leagues I recommend waiting for QB until round 5 or later.

    I pulled stats on the top 40 rb, top 37 wr/te, and top 20 QB from last year. I based the scoring on 6 points per TD and 1 point per 10 yards (RB, WR) and 1 point per 20 yards (QB).

    The scoring difference is astounding, which is partially my point. The top QB was Drew Brees with 457 points, the top RB was Michael Turner with 271, and the top receiver was Larry Fitzgerald with 215.

    Now I understand Oxlong's point that it's all relative and the drop off isn't as severe at QB and since you need multiple at other positions they carry more importance. I agree with the latter half of that but consider the drop offs:

    From Brees at #1 to Rodgers at #5 there was a drop off of 87 points.
    From Brees to Favre at #10 there was a drop off of 151 points.
    From Brees to Rivers at #3 there was a drop off of 53 points. (A clear drop from the top)

    Those stats tell a ton, those are a lot of points. Let's look at RB.

    From Turner at #1 to Forte at #10 there was a drop of 100 points.
    From Turner to Gore at #20 there was a drop of 132 points (small difference)
    From Turner to Rhodes at #30 there was a drop of 182 points.

    From Fitzgerald at #1 to T. Gonzalez at #10 there was a drop of 49 points.
    From Fitzgerald to K. Walter at #20 there was a drop of 77 points.
    From Fitzgerald to Colston at #30 there was a drop of 109 points.

    This tells me WR is the least important position as it has the least amount of separation.

    I'll paste the source data and you can see the whole list. Once you get past 3 RB there's a drop off. Note where the OP was picking. Once you get past 2 QB there's a drop off. You can go 7-8 deep at WR before a big drop.

    Back to the original post, once the top tiers of RB are gone you can still get value with RB 10-20 compared to the top tier. Take the high points and differential you'll get with the top 2 QB's where the total points are not only the highest, the drop offs are larger as well.

    Again, this is only for leagues giving 6 points per TD passing.

    Rank Player Team Yards TD ADP Scoring
    1 Drew Brees, QB NOR 5069 34 30.4 457.45
    2 Kurt Warner, QB ARI 4583 30 185.5 409.15
    3 Philip Rivers, QB SDG 4009 34 103.2 404.45
    4 Jay Cutler, QB DEN 4526 25 82.3 376.3
    5 Aaron Rodgers, QB GNB 4038 28 125.7 369.9
    6 Peyton Manning, QB IND 4002 27 15.4 362.1
    7 Donovan McNabb, QB PHI 3916 23 65 333.8
    8 Tony Romo, QB DAL 3448 26 22.7 328.4
    9 Matt Cassel, QB NWE 3693 21 OFF 310.65
    10 Brett Favre, QB NYJ 3472 22 131.2 305.6
    11 Chad Pennington, QB MIA 3653 19 263 296.65
    12 Eli Manning, QB NYG 3238 21 90.8 287.9
    13 David Garrard, QB JAC 3620 15 98.2 271
    14 Matt Ryan, QB ATL 3440 16 250.4 268
    15 Ben Roethlisberger, QB PIT 3301 17 46.2 267.05
    16 Kyle Orton, QB CHI 2972 18 OFF 256.6
    17 Jake Delhomme, QB CAR 3288 15 111.8 254.4
    18 Matt Schaub, QB HOU 3043 15 107.8 242.15
    19 Tyler Thigpen, QB KAN 2608 18 OFF 238.4
    20 Joe Flacco, QB BAL 2971 14 293.5 232.55

    Rank Player Team Yards TD ADP Scoring
    1 Michael Turner, RB ATL 1699 17 35.2 271.9
    2 DeAngelo Williams, RB CAR 1515 18 98.7 259.5
    3 Adrian Peterson, RB MIN 1760 10 2.3 236
    4 Thomas Jones, RB NYJ 1312 13 47.7 209.2
    5 Clinton Portis, RB WAS 1487 9 10.5 202.7
    6 Brandon Jacobs, RB NYG 1089 15 31.6 198.9
    7 Steve Slaton, RB HOU 1282 9 235.35 182.2
    8 LaDainian Tomlinson, RB SDG 1110 11 1.1 177
    9 Chris Johnson, RB TEN 1228 9 115 176.8
    10 Matt Forte, RB CHI 1238 8 68.29 171.8
    11 LenDale White, RB TEN 773 15 58 167.3
    12 Maurice Jones-Drew, RB JAC 824 12 20.9 154.4
    13 Ronnie Brown, RB MIA 916 10 34.7 151.6
    14 Marshawn Lynch, RB BUF 1036 8 11 151.6
    15 Le'Ron McClain, FB BAL 902 10 OFF 150.2
    16 Brian Westbrook, RB PHI 936 9 3.6 147.6
    17 Steven Jackson, RB STL 1042 7 4.2 146.2
    18 Kevin Smith, RB DET 976 8 70.9 145.6
    19 Jonathan Stewart, RB CAR 836 10 57.2 143.6
    20 Frank Gore, RB SFO 1036 6 8.2 139.6
    21 Marion Barber, RB DAL 885 7 8.8 130.5
    22 Jamal Lewis, RB CLE 1002 4 25.1 124.2
    23 Larry Johnson, RB KAN 874 5 13.3 117.4
    24 Pierre Thomas, RB NOR 625 9 203.3 116.5
    25 Sammy Morris, RB NWE 727 7 150.2 114.7
    26 Willis McGahee, RB BAL 671 7 16.2 109.1
    27 Willie Parker, RB PIT 791 5 38.7 109.1
    28 Tim Hightower, RB ARI 399 10 293 99.9
    29 Ricky Williams, RB MIA 659 4 118 89.9
    30 Dominic Rhodes, RB IND 538 6 211.5 89.8
    31 Mewelde Moore, RB PIT 588 5 300 88.8
    32 Joseph Addai, RB IND 544 5 5.2 84.4
    33 Leon Washington, RB NYJ 448 6 185.2 80.8
    34 Deuce McAllister, RB NOR 418 5 100.6 71.8
    35 T.J. Duckett, RB SEA 172 8 218.1 65.2
    36 Peyton Hillis, FB DEN 343 5 OFF 64.3
    37 Chester Taylor, RB MIN 399 4 88.2 63.9
    38 LaMont Jordan, RB NWE 363 4 235.4 60.3
    39 BenJarvus Green-Ellis NWE 275 5 OFF 57.5
    40 Michael Pittman, RB DEN 320 4 268 56

    Rank Player Team Yards TD ADP Scoring
    1 Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARI 1431 12 22 215.1
    2 Andre Johnson, WR HOU 1575 8 23.6 205.5
    3 Calvin Johnson, WR DET 1331 12 55.1 205.1
    4 Greg Jennings, WR GNB 1292 9 52.6 183.2
    5 Roddy White, WR ATL 1382 7 64.9 180.2
    6 Steve Smith, WR CAR 1421 6 28 178.1
    7 Anquan Boldin, WR ARI 1038 11 40.7 169.8
    8 Randy Moss, WR NEW 1008 11 9.3 166.8
    9 Antonio Bryant, WR TAM 1248 7 272.8 166.8
    10 Tony Gonzalez, TE KAN 1058 10 63 165.8
    11 Terrell Owens, WR DAL 1052 10 15.5 165.2
    12 Brandon Marshall, WR DEN 1265 6 42.9 162.5
    13 Lance Moore, NOR 928 10 OFF 152.8
    14 Vincent Jackson, WR SDG 1098 7 131.3 151.8
    15 Reggie Wayne, WR IND 1145 6 16.4 150.5
    16 Hines Ward, WR PIT 1043 7 61.7 146.3
    17 Dwayne Bowe, WR KAN 1022 7 61.8 144.2
    18 Santana Moss, WR WAS 1044 6 83.2 140.4
    19 Bernard Berrian, WR MIN 964 7 87 138.4
    20 Kevin Walter, WR HOU 899 8 225.2 137.9
    21 Derrick Mason, WR BAL 1037 5 117.6 133.7
    22 Donald Driver, WR GNB 1012 5 74.1 131.2
    23 Laveranues Coles, WR NYJ 850 7 76.7 127
    24 Isaac Bruce, WR SFO 835 7 139.9 125.5
    25 Muhsin Muhammad, WR CAR 923 5 233.1 122.3
    26 Dallas Clark, TE IND 848 6 67.8 120.8
    27 Antonio Gates, TE SDG 704 8 48.1 118.4
    28 Jerricho Cotchery, WR NYJ 858 5 82 115.8
    29 Santonio Holmes, WR PIT 821 5 47.7 112.1
    30 Marques Colston, WR NOR 760 5 26.8 106
    31 Visanthe Shiancoe, TE MIN 596 7 300 101.6
    32 Justin Gage, WR TEN 651 6 187 101.1
    33 Marvin Harrison, WR IND 636 5 57 93.6
    34 Anthony Fasano, TE MIA 454 7 OFF 87.4
    35 Chris Chambers, WR SDG 462 5 72.7 76.2
    36 Kevin Boss, TE NYG 384 6 214.5 74.4
    37 Donald Lee, TE GNB 303 5 190.5 60.3

    Data won't paste good but it's there.
  2. Harvs01

    Harvs01 Pro Bowler

    no Wes Welker on that list in top 37 receivers?
  3. wow... holy cow... just when i thought i was sold and had a sound strategy... However, that is assuming that the QB that is picked in round 1 stays in the top tier... if he falters it is baaaaad news.... handcuffs don't really work on qbs..
  4. 86WARD

    86WARD -

    I like all your picks there except for Patrick Crayton...not a fan at all. I'm a fan of Earl Bennett and Brandon Stokley which you could probably get with your last pick. But otherwise, I think your line up is solid. Maybe a Kevin Jones with your last pick to "handcuff" Matt Forte? LeSean McCoy to handcuff Westbrook?

    All in all, I think it was a good mock.
  5. 86WARD

    86WARD -

    Then the list would be screwed...lol...
  6. yeah, mccoy has been going early which is tough to justify but i would pick jones in round 15-17.. good point... i dont like crayton but austin has looked like p**p and crayton had some solid games last year... i do like bennet!!
  7. Harvs01

    Harvs01 Pro Bowler

  8. thanks again for the feedback!!!

    **********Automerged Doublepost**********

    and the SIC banner from 86WARD!!!!
  9. 86WARD

    86WARD -

  10. mike oxlong

    mike oxlong The Voice Of Reason

    I don't understand how 132 is a small difference, when 151 is huge.

    Again, I'll try to help you understand this

    151 is a difference in QB, that's one player, by taking a QB first you would lose the points difference on 2 RB's and 2 WR's,

    4 positions, so at the smallest incriment you provide that's a loss of 100+100+49+49 = 300 pts lost because you wanted 150 more pts at QB and that's best case scenario.

    That makes no sense, add to that when you look at the top 10 QB list, you could have gotten 5 or more of those QB's (less than 151 pts) later than the 5th round. further proving that you can find a top 10 QB later and you will have less of a chance finding a top 10 WR and RB late.

    if you were to draft Rivers in the 7th (his adp from last year) Romo in the 8th (his adp from last year) cutler in the 9th (his adp from last year) or Warner or Rodgers who routinely went undrafted and cassel who also was not drafted in one league. you have 6 top ten QB's who were not hardly drafted before the 7th round.

    Rivers a guy who was drafted 6 rounds lated had less than 4 pts a game less than brees and I can guarantee you that the guy who drafted rivers in the 7th had a much better team around him than the guy who drafted brees in the first.

    btw, brees ADP last year was 4th round.

    QB fluctuation and importance of a solid team almost require you to build a solid team before getting a QB. again, unless you play with fools who don't know what they are doing, I don't.

    say you pick brees first but lose out on RB's and WR's but the guy who drafted rivers, or warner LATE or picked up rodgers off the WW only lost at most 88 pts of one player, but if you take the RB's and WR's on his team, you can guarantee he more than makes up those 88 points or less in those 4 positions he was able to get ahead of you on.

    You post only further proves my point.
  11. pctrips

    pctrips Pro Bowler

    Yeah, good catch. I had to figure my own stats so I based my initial sort on TD's of which Welker only had 3 so he didn't come up. Based on his yardage totals he would have ranked 21st on the list 37 WR in fantasy points.
  12. pctrips

    pctrips Pro Bowler

    You are repeating sound strategy for basic scoring leagues. You are discounting the inflated scoring the QB position provides. I'm not sure I follow how drafting 1 QB would make me lose points on 4 players. I don't follow that logic. To only point out the ADP for the QB's is misleading. Top 10 value can be had late in a draft at any position.

    Calvin Johson and Greg Jenning in 5th round last year. Roddy White in the 6th. All top 10 receivers.

    DeAngelo Williams in the 9th, Steve Slaton of the waiver wire, Chris Johnson in the 11th, Matt Forte in the 6th. All top 10 backs.

    Going RB, RB, WR, WR, QB is not going to blow away a team that goes QB, RB, WR, RB, WR or some other combination assuming he goes RB in the second round unless it's an idiot drafting. My whole point is the point differential after the top 3 RB's tightens up signficantly. He's not in position to draft in that top tier so his best choice is to go top tier in the highest scoring position available. I don't understand why people think this is a bad strategy. Games are scored on total points per week, not by position.

    If I was top 4 in this league this year, I would go RB. He's not so assuming my top 4 RB are gone when it gets to me then I pick Brees. I pick up a Ryan Grant/Brandon Jacobs/Steve Slaton in the second round and I'm not losing any sleep and I'm feeling ok about my draft so far.
  13. i am hoping that turner or forte slip to me :)
    both legit arguments... luckily i have a week to ponder
  14. mike oxlong

    mike oxlong The Voice Of Reason

    yeah there are later round players, but you only draft 1 QB and 4 position players. that's 48 players drafted to 12 just in starters position to QB. meaning less of a chance of finding those gems. I was taking into account the inflated scoring for QB's, I used your lists. In the leagues I have been in, the guy who takes a QB in the first round very rarely wins the league. It's put's you in too much of a hole at the other positions and whatever points you might get by having the top QB, does not make up the difference you lose by waiting on the other positions.

    Think about last year all the people that took Brady and Manning in Round 1 (the only QB's that went in round 1 last year) both did not live up to expectations and anyone who drafted them suffered. SO not only do you waste a high pick on a position where you only get 1 starter, but that starter absolutely HAS to produce, and produce in the top 1-2 spots at their position in order for your team to succeed.

    But if you draft 2 RB's and 2 solid WR's and one of them goes down or under performs. you can still work out a team that will compete. Taking a QB in the first round involves too much risk, imo.
  15. pctrips

    pctrips Pro Bowler

    I agree it's risky, but a season ending injury to your first round pick will kill you no matter what. According to this league's scoring whoever had Brady in 2007 would have had to totally blow the rest of the draft to not be one of the top 2-3 teams. Same with Brees last year.

    All this discussion is why I prefer auction leagues, much more interesting imo.
  16. mike oxlong

    mike oxlong The Voice Of Reason

    and neither brady in 2007 or brees last year were drafted in the first round further proving that you shouldn't take a QB in the first round.

    If you lose 1 of your 2-3 RB's it is much easier to rebuild a competitive team than if you lose a QB who you took in the first round.
  17. pctrips

    pctrips Pro Bowler

    It's not losing one of your 2-3 running backs, I'm talking about losing AP in the first game of the year. The chances are very slim that team will compete for the title. Injuries can kill any team when it's their #1 draft choice.

    I was high on Brees last year, I took him in round 3 in a standard scoring league after going RB in rounds 1 and 2. I lost in the championship game. It's not a mistake to take them.

    Anyway, I've stated my case....good luck in your draft.
  18. mike oxlong

    mike oxlong The Voice Of Reason

    not if you back up that AP pick with other solid RB's and other position players before picking a QB

    LMAO, all this time you talk about you should be taking Brees in the first and you took two RB's before taking Brees in the third. That's hilarious. You admit that it's quite likely the #1 overall QB could possibly not be drafted in the first. That is the best one yet. lol
  19. pctrips

    pctrips Pro Bowler

    That was in a standard scoring league...you're not understanding me.

    The #1, #2, and #4 running backs last year weren't taken in the first round either. I can poke as many holes as you can. It all comes back to whatever strategy someone is comfortable with. In his league with the top 4 RB's gone I'd go QB for the points. To each their own.
  20. mike oxlong

    mike oxlong The Voice Of Reason

    but the top QB last wasn't drafted in the first round, the last many years. If you don't get the #1 QB with that first round pick, you are screwing yourself, because someone else is getting the #1 QB later and they are instantly going to have a leg up on the guy who wasted his first round pick on a QB. lol It's too much of a risk when playing with people who know what they are doing.