Ryan Matthews #1 Pick?

You kept Lance Moore and Kevn Walter? You're in the struggle...

Anyways...
1. Ryan Grant- Featured back, gets receptions so if PPR then a plus, no competition for his job at all. Would be the best pick for 2010 production.
2. Jonathan Stewart- Never missed a game although always injured, had surgery and is 100% without any pain from bone spurs like before, would be a better featured back than Williams. Williams is just the big play guy compared to Stewart's ability to pound it out 20+ times a game. Would be the best pick for the future.
3. Ryan Mathews- Clary and Vasquez on the right makes it impossible to run on that side cause they can't run block if their life depended on it. McNeill is gone on the left due to a holdout so now he can't run on the left. Every AFC West team has beefed up the middle of their defense so running down there will be a pain. Jackson is suspended/holding out for awhile and Gates will get injured so the passing game will be non-existent at points, which means 8 in the box. He's overrated and didn't show/give much effort against the already weak competition he went against. Not only that, I assure you the guy will be out for at least 2 games this season according to his track record.

 

i love taking rookies high, i took MJD, Forte, harvin and stewart pretty high in their respective years...id take matthews and wouldnt even think twice about it based on potential and his situation alone.

 

Grant does very VERY little in the pass game...the Packers usually pull him on pass plays.

Don't discount CJ Spiller or Montario Hardesty. Spiller's probably a better back than Matthews...just in a "worse" situation. If Hardesty beats out Harrison or some how gets the bulk of the carries, he could wind up challenhing for Rookie of the Year. Hardesty isn't #1 material but worth keeping an eye on. I'd still go Matthews...esp. over Grant. I love taking young backs early in keeper leagues too...

 

He'll get 20ish catches a season. That's above average for runningbacks. Plus his offense is such a heavy passing attack that he'll rarely if ever see eight in the box. And his offensive line is awesome.

 

the packers oline is nearly the opposite of awesome

 

You're thinking of their second team.

 

Grant's hands are garbage...one of the reasons he got benched for Walker at ND. 20-ish catches is nothing for a RB. There have been a lot of running backs that have been successful behind a questionable O-line. Grant being one of them.

Matthews has a lot more upside in a keeper league than Grant.

 

If you want 2010 production, you take Grant. If you want upside for the future, you take Stewart. That's my opinion.

I don't get why everyone is all over Mathews' nuts. He's behind a crap run blocking offensive line. There is only one legitimate receiving threat on his team to complement the run, Gates. He is sharing carings with Sproles, and won't be in on 3rd downs. He gained all his stats against weak competition. Even against weak competition he was easy to tackle for a guy who's suppose to be a 'bruiser." All AFC West teams have also improved their run defense pretty well.

800 yds., 3.5 avg. yds., 5 receptions, 4-6 TDs

Everyone is always using the reason that he'll be starting right away and he's in an explosive offense, etc. etc. etc., but no one really looks at everything that needs to complement him.

Not saying it's a sure bet, but I think Dez Bryant is in a much better situation. He has a top 8 QB in an explosive passing offense throwing to him. He only has Roy Williams to beat, which everyone and their mother knows will be easy. Everyone thinks he'll be rotating or taking over the starting job early in the season, I think he takes it in training camp with what he's shown in minicamp and training camp so far. People need to realize that Roy Williams is horrible, even worse than the crap most people already think. His route running sucks, he drops balls, he's lazy, and he runs his mouth for an underachiever. Crayton is a great slot receiver for Dallas, even Dez Bryant would play a better slot than Williams.

He has two other threats on offense that will allow him to never have double coverage in his first season, Austin and Witten. Austin or Witten will most likely have an extra guy on him on most plays, which will leave a lot more room for Bryant. He has the running game to complement the passing game. The whole NFC East has turned into a passing game so big, deep pass plays will be a common sight. Goodell wanted a shootout in every game and he's getting it in the NFC East.
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Sorry for derailing the topic a bit, but I'm just trying to show that Mathews is overrated and should in no way be the pick. I would take Grant and Stewart over Mathews any day and not because I'm a Raiders fan. I was high on Brees and Turner during and after the Bolts let them go. I was high on VJax for years and it looks like the Bolts are letting one of their top players go again.

 

No one is necessarily all over Mathews' nuts, the question at hand is Mathews or Grant. Grant is way overrated in my book. His receiving game is crap. He's taken out on third downs more often than not and with Rodgers ability to run, it hurts Grant's short yardage and goal line carries. Mathews will see ALL the short yard carries and inside the 10, the Chargers ran more than any other team in the league. The Packers on the other hand throw much more inside the 10 than most teams in the league. Mathews isn't projected to share carries with Sproles at all and Mathews will get a ton of carries near the goalline. Something that Grant won't get b/c of the Packers pass game and the ability of Rodgers to run the ball. Mathews can also catch which could keep him in on third downs.

Neither O-Line is great. Green Bay's O-line has been trash. The Chargers O-Line will be helped somewhat when Hardwick returns. The O-Lines can't be the deciding factor in who you pick here. There have been plenty of backs who had a good offensive line and under performed and had a crapty o-line and it didn't stop them...consideration? yes. Deciding factor? no.

 

matthews will get 250+ carries and at least 30-40 catches. It's already been said that is the base goal for matthews. Sproles cannot hack it and is a change of pace guy only. He is not even a third down back. Matthews will get all the goalline work. saying that a rookie WR will produce more than that is ridiculous and completely uninformed. Austin is emerging as a top level WR and to say that a rookie is going to come in and produce at a top level, when they have a clear #1 WR in Austin and a top receiving TE is also nuts. Bryant as a rookie will be lucky to hit 60 catches and that would be tops.

 

Buffalo's run blocking could be much improved in 2010. Pass blocking, not so much, but Spiller could get holes.

If Lynch gets traded/cut, I think Spiller will outproduce Matthews, and it might not even be close. Spiller is a far superior back IMO. The only thing IMO holding him behind Matthews is the threat Lynch has of stealing carries. Sproles and Jackson cancels each other out, and while Matthews may get more TD's, Spiller will get more receptions

 

spiller's overall offense and is MUCH worse. Matthews has GREAT hands, people are underestimating his catching ability and that will be a mistake.

 

They are running Gailey's offense, which I know first hand from when he coached here is run, run, run, short pass, short pass, run, run, run. Gailey is gonna live or die on Spiller and Jackson running and catching.

Based on that offence, those Buffalo HB's if they drop Lynch are both huge sleepers. The offense itself wont be anything, no WR or QB is even really draftable, but those HB's will be gold.

The offense's only saving grace is tha fact that , if both Wood and Levitre progress and Calloway can steal the RT spot ( I think he will), they will have a solid run blocking line

 

the offense has to stay on the field for those HB's to even be pyrite. I think with that Oline his offense is going to be run, run, punt 5 or 6 times in the first half. Then in the second it will be pass, pass, punt. Poor offenses only have one fantasy option and it's a solid WR3 to WR2 at best due to trailing late in games abandoning the run. Buffalo is not going to win a lot of games, especially in that division and that means bye bye to the run game in many games.

 

I think they are going to run fine. They are going to be a team that will be able to move the ball 25 to 30 yards before punting. They have the blocking and the backs for a good running game. They just wont be able to sustain many drives beyond that. I honestly dont see them as a team with alot of 3 and outs

 

In that division which has some decent defense. Not to mention when they are trailing late in most games. I just don't see it this year for spiller. Especially if Lynch and Jackson are there stealing stats in a limited offense.

 

I dont see it if Lynch is their, and I think he will

But a Spiller and Jackson Crew, Spiller as the top dog is good for 1,100 and 50/60 catch's, Jackson 800, 40/50 with 6-8 total TD's a peice. The ground game will be effective, and I think it will keep them in alot of games.......Lee Evens on the other hand will be good for maybe 45 catch's

Lynch being around however nullifies those projections

 

The Chargers' offense is overrated mostly with VJax and McNeill out, they don't have anything else. You only have Gates, who is starting to play injured every damn game. You don't give a guy $7.3 million to sit on the bench and "spell" the starter. It's a split situation with Sproles as the passing downs guy, he's always done well in that role.

You obviously don't play PPR in a fantasy league. Yes, there are a chunk of RBs you can name that get more receptions than Grant, but they are not FEATURED like him. This already makes him a RB1 in today's leagues. The 20ish receptions he get each year just boost his numbers more to make him a top 10 RB fantasy-wise. He gets switched out on passing downs? What games are you watching? Who do they put in instead? Brandon Jackson? Are you kidding me? I can see James Starks taking over the passing downs role, but he's too raw and it won't happen until the 2011 season, so production wise Grant will still post up huge numbers in 2010 barring injury. That is why I said Grant would be the better pick for 2010 production.

Hardwick back? So all he can do is run down the middle? Cause he definitely can't run behind Clary/Vasquez on the right or behind Thomas on the left. Dielman is a decent run blocker, but he's getting worse and that left was anchored by McNeill's awesome run blocking, which made Dielman look better. The AFC West has also improved their run defense. The Raiders have McClain in the middle, Seymour moving to the middle at the 3-technique, and Henderson and Kelly rotating at NT. The Broncos signed Jamal Williams for the middle and signed Ayodele to be next to Williams. Ayodele isn't great, but will do very well next to Williams. The Chiefs are actually becoming smart and will probably start Derrick Johnson now, and signed Shaun Smith.

The offensive line matters a lot. Yes, great runningbacks can do well behind horrible offensive line, but who's to say Mathews is a great runningback? The guy is a rookie and needs all the help he can get, yet in my opinion defenses he'll play against have gotten better at stopping the run while his offensive line has gotten worse at run blocking, the team's passing game is crap without McNeill and VJax and won't complement his running, and he'll be splitting with Sproles. Greenbay's offensive line is great. I don't think you pay attention to them enough. The only problem with them is that it's difficult for them to stay healthy, but if they do Grant will be even more explosive than last year. Jennings couldn't stretch the field last year because the offensive line couldn't give Rodgers enough time. With injuries over with they'll start passing to Jennings again and JerMichael Finley has emerged into a huge threat, which gives Grant the possibility of doing even better.

If Mathews gets 250+ carries he'll break something. 30-40 catches? The Lions also say they'll win 10+ games every year! I don't think the guy has even caught 30 receptions in his college career let alone the NFL. How can you tell if a guy can catch when he never does it?

When did I say that Bryant will do better than Austin? All I said was he'll be ROY over Mathews any day. You're the one that's uninformed since he doesn't have to be the #1 receiver on his team to become ROY. Percy Harvin hit 60 receptions his rookie year, won ROY, and wasn't even the #1 target on his team. Roy Williams could have easily hit 60 receptions last year as the third target on his team, he was just too stupid to run his routes correctly and dropped like 20% of the balls that came to him. He doesn't need to do great, he just needs to do better than all the other rookies which isn't difficult since he's one of the top offensive rookie players coming out and has one of the better opportunities to do well right away.

 

sproles is awful as a full time back...he gets shut down so easily despite his occasional heroics. they paid him that much money because they needed him, not because hes great

 

Sometimes that works, and sometimes it doesn't.

I remember taking Darren McFadden when he came out of Arkansas in this very same fantasy league. He hasn't lived up to his potential yet. Maybe it's the team he's on.