By the people, for the people, and so on. You are my people. What frustrates me above all else are so-called fantasy advice columns that fit into one of two categories:
1) They refuse to stray from conventional wisdom, often until it's weeks too late to save or help your season or
2) They only offer rankings commentary on the "big-name" guys that everyone knows to play anyway. Gee, Vincent Jackson will have a bounce back week and I shouldn't play him over A.J. Green? Thanks!
Each Friday I will examine five pressing issues facing fantasy owners. I will try to focus only on issues that you may actually be concerned with, namely: marginal flex players, tough matchup decisions, and how to assimilate new information from the previous week. This is a column of the people, by the people, for the people (thanks, Abe). And as long as I’m offering oaths, I promise to always tackle the difficult questions as I see them, not be chained by conventional wisdom, and not allow traditional or draft-position bias to affect my weekly rankings.
This week, since we have lost our ranking guru, I have also incorporated a flex-rank guide into my column to help you approach your lineup decisions early in the season. 0-2 is not a fun thing to stare at all week, and if your league is anything like mine, such a record will also garner you a plethora of unwanted texts from fellow owners with low-ball trade offers, insults, and questions regarding your manhood. Let’s avoid that, shall we?
Flex Ranks
1. Ray Rice
2. Darren McFadden
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Peyton Hillis
5. Adrian Peterson
6. Arian Foster
7. Rashard Mendenhall
8. Calvin Johnson
9. Andre Johnson
10. Matt Forte
11. Jamaal Charles
12. Greg Jennings
13. Roddy White
14. Michael Turner
15. Frank Gore
Pressing Issue #1: The big boys
Obviously, if you have these guys you’re playing them. More obviously, I’m ranking Arian Foster as if he is going to play, and play the entire game. I think week one was precautionary at worst. The Texans knew there was no rush to get Foster back in the mix against a Peyton-less Indy team. Still, if we get more information or his status is downgraded before game-time, you have to adjust his value accordingly. The running backs directly below Foster, Mendenhall and Charles, have even more pressing issues: an offensive line, or lack thereof, and Detroit’s improved defense, respectively. Still, I think Mendenhall should have a nice day against a bad Seattle team. Do I have the Steelers' back ranked too highly? Maybe, but I like the matchup and I think Pittsburgh will simply unload on the Seahawks after a week one disappointment.
I was almost willing to put Peterson outside the top-5- more a testament to how little I believe in Minnesota than anything else. If not for the Ben Tate Situation (sitcom incoming) I might have. But, the Vikes have a home game and the Bucs aren’t exactly world-eaters yet. I think he’ll be fine.
Both receiving Johnsons (“You just said receiving Johnsons. Huh huh.” OK, I get it. Thanks.) have outstanding matchups that simply cannot be ignored.
Last week, not counting Aaron Rodgers, the Packers rushed 23 times for 102 yards and two scores against the Saints. Given Forte’s added value as a pass catcher, I don’t think I am ranking him too high here, and may regret not having him even higher. While Forte isn’t a strict matchup play, I doubt you’ll see him inside my top-10 next week. Last year against the Packers, Forte had only 120 total rushing yards and 74 receiving yards in two games, with no touchdowns. Not exactly top-flight material. But this week I think he’ll perform well. I think the Falcons top wideout is a better play than their back this week, but the ranks suggest how close I think that really is. Likely you won’t have to make the call between the two, so this is purely more for my own prognosticating entertainment.
16. Beanie Wells
17. Chris Johnson
18. Maurice Jones-Drew
19. DeSean Jackson
20. Cedric Benson
Pressing Issue no. 2: Underperforming/Overperforming
I think Beanie Wells is the most interesting question in fantasy this week. Like many others, I think he is legit. I wrote plenty about him Tuesday, so I’ll sum up here: better offense, involved in passing game. Johnson and Jones-Drew have poor matchups, but you have to play them. Cedric Benson benefited from a soft matchup with the Browns, who he perennially owns, and has another less potent defense in the Broncos this week. I think he’ll continue to overperform in week 2.
21. Mike Wallace
22. Larry Fitzgerald
23. Miles Austin
24. Hakeem Nicks
25. Antonio Gates
26. Vincent Jackson
27. Jahvid Best
28. Mike Tolbert
29. Ahmad Bradshaw
30. Reggie Wayne
31. Wes Welker
32. Anquan Boldin
33. Steve Johnson
34. Brandon Marshall
35. Santana Moss
Pressing Issue 3: Who’s Who?
I may actually have Miles Austin too low, as well, if Dez Bryant doesn’t play (I’m ranking him as if he does not, and Hakeem Nicks as if he does). Let’s be honest, Antonio Gates is really the WR1 for the Chargers. He is a tight end by name only. WR1 with one of the who’s who of top quarterbacks in the league throwing to you? I’ll take that, thank you. Same rational for Welker and, yes, I’ll say it, Boldin, too.
Santana Moss has a great matchup play against a team that just got lit up by Carolina, but you don’t need me to remind you of Cam Newton’s Week One exploits. Steve Johnson is legit and has been since last season. If you’re still unfamiliar with him... where have you been
Who are these Kansas City Chiefs? I’m not sure, but I am sure they did give up 112 yards on the ground to Fred Jackson. And Jahvid Best is more talented and on a better team.
36. Tim Hightower
37. LeGarette Blount
38. DeAngelo Williams
39. Mike Williams (TB)
40. Kenny Britt
41. Pierre Thomas
42. Jermichael Finley
43. Jason Witten
44. Fred Jackson
45. Mario Manningham
46. James Starks
47. Plaxico Burress
48. Jeremy Maclin
49. Santonio Holmes
50. Shonn Greene
Pressing Issue 4: Lineup Decisions
I suspect ranks 36-50 are where I may get the most feedback, er, hate mail. I may simply be too low on Shonn Greene, but let’s be honest for a moment: since he has come into the league, what has he shown you to prove he’s worth a spot in your lineup? I think the best fantasy Jets are listed in the order I have placed them above. Am I over-reacting to Plaxico’s week one? I don’t think so. In fact, I think they will only try to get him more involved. I have a decision to make in one league between Burress and Maclin. While the Atlanta secondary looked awful against Chicago last week, the Jaguars didn’t do a whole lot to slow down, uh, Kenny-Britt-with-Matt-Hasselbeck-throwing-to-him. There are better options on Philadelphia than Maclin, and so my lineup choice may come down to him being just lower on the food chain. I’m not sure that’s true for Burress and the Jets- them having better options, that is. No, I’m not worried about Blount at all. He should do just fine this week. I think Pierre Thomas may just be the best receiving option for the Saints right now (it’s either him or Sproles), while I expect Starks to get a heavy workload in what may be a blowout early. Obviously, Manningham’s value significanly increases based on what happens with Nicks. From the latest I’ve heard, Nicks may play.
51. Felix Jones
52. Cadillac Williams
53. Dwayne Bowe
54. Steve Smith
55. Aaron Hernandez
56. Dallas Clark
57. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
58. Jordy Nelson
59. Brandon Lloyd
60. Reggie Bush
61. Devery Henderson
62. Percy Harvin
63. Vernon Davis
64. Darren Sproles
65. Joseph Addai
66. LaDanian Tomlinson
67. Robert Meachem
68. Rob Gronkowski
69. Mike Thomas (JAC)
70. Jimmy Graham
71. Nate Burleson
72. Hines Ward
73. Knowshon Moreno
74. Danny Woodhead
75. Deion Branch
Pressing Issue no. 5: The Patsies
Let’s not get too hasty. Let’s also not forget how strong the Chargers are against opposing passers. Still, week one was impressive. The New England machine may be at full steam, and the Chargers are historically bad against tight ends. Am I overvaluing Hernandez and Gronkowski? Possibly. But let’s consider, for example, nothing more than a competitive (or, some may say, higher-tier) tight end: Vernon Davis. Yes this is purely a surface evaluation- but which would you rather in your lineup: an “old reliable” who will get his targets, but has Alex Smith throwing to him or an explosive playmaker on a potential offensive juggernaut with arguably the best quarterback of the past decade hucking him the ball (with a great matchup to boot)? My, how the Moreno has fallen. I just don’t see it. A lot of Denver players are quickly becoming fantasy-irrelevant. He may be adding his name to the list sooner than we think. Nelson is the third-best option on a pass-first team and will be a weekly producer. I’ll give Bowe a mulligan... for now.
Disclaimer, End Credits
The way I approach my rankings is simple: if I had all of these guys on my team, would I start everyone above the guy I list over him and bench him for everyone below? If I can’t honestly answer “yes”, then I adjust the rankings. Cases in point: this week, apart from the Burress/Maclin decision listed above, I am also playing Hernandez over Davis at TE, Tomlinson over both Moreno and Burleson at the flex, and Fred Jackson over Felix Jones at RB2.
I believe in my choices and have the courage to make the plays. Does it always work out? Of course not, none of us have a crystal ball. But I do have a thick skin, and if the worst my league-mates can dish out is the occasional, “sux it” text (yeah guys, learn to spell), I can live with that.
Best of luck, and so on and so forth. I will also try to answer any lineup questions I get sent to my twitter: @petethegreekff
_PDK