In the last video, I broke down how you should use consistency to create power ratings for running backs. In this video, we’re going to do the same for wide receivers. With our stat projections already complete, all we need to do it multiply the projected points by the consistency correlations, which I’ll provide you, then add up the results. This is part of our "How to Draft Training Series".
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Here are the year-to-year consistency correlations for wide receiver stats
- 0.70 for receptions
- 0.57 for receiving yards
- 0.40 for touchdowns
It shouldn’t be a surprise that touchdowns, as a relatively low-frequency event, are the least consistent stat for wide receivers. It might be more surprising that receptions are so reliable. Wide receivers who catch a lot of passes are extremely consistent in all sorts of fantasy leagues, even non-PPR.
How to create power rating
With those consistency correlations in mind, let’s create a power rating for Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald. Suppose we’ve already used the projection method I outlined in previous videos to project Fitzgerald for 80 receptions, 1,000 yards, and six touchdowns in 2013. In a PPR league, that equates to 80 points for receptions, 100 points for yards, and 36 points for touchdowns.
Fitzgerald’s declining touchdown total shouldn’t hurt him as much as you might think, however, simply because touchdowns are much more volatile than receptions or yards. It would be foolish to place the same weight on our touchdown projection for Fitzgerald as we do on receptions and yards.
Once we multiply the projected points by the consistency correlations, you can see how the results change. The value of our projection of Fitzgerald’s touchdowns holds even less weight than before.
Adding up all of the individual ratings, we get a final power rating of 127.4 for Fitzgerald. It’s worth noting that the value of Fitzgerald’s receptions was nearly identical to that for his yards in our power rating, but that wasn’t the case in the initial projections. In effect, we’re choosing to “pay” more for receptions because they’re predictable. Receivers who catch a ton of passes, like Wes Welker, benefit from this type of analysis, while players like Mike Wallace get penalized.
In the next video, I’ll give you the tight end consistency correlations and we’ll go through the same process. Thanks again for checking out the fantasyknuckleheads.com how to draft training series.
