Okay, this Kevin Ogletree guy has never done anything like this before... So, can it possibly be for real? Before we dismiss it as a fluke, let's dig in and see if anything is there.
In "The Program" we talk at length about the Prime Profile and how to determine when players are entering the highest earning potential of their careers, so I'll walk you through a bit of a Prime Profile with Ogletree. We also do extensive positional breakdowns and give you more than seven hours of audio secrets that will immediately propel you into a more competitive position in all of your leagues. The biggest part of the fantasy season is everything that you do during the season to manage your roster... that part is just beginning. In "The Program" we've got you covered. Check it out by clicking here.
So, let's look at Ogletree. In 2012 he is entering his fourth year in the league with career totals of 25 receptions for 294 yards and zero touchdowns. Wednesday night he went off. 8 receptions for 114 yards and 2 TD's. Can this possibly be for real?
Well, there are actually a few reasons why it could be, but let's start with the reasons why not.
First, Ogletree lacks ideal size. He is not a small receiver, but at 6'1" and 196 pounds he's just average. He has good speed at 4.36 in the 40-yard dash, though. Not all-world, but very good. So, if he runs his routes well he should be able to get open.
Another negative is his pedigree. He left Virginia after his junior season as a projected 4th or 5th round pick and went undrafted. He had lingering knee issues at the time and didn't blow anyone away with his stats as a Cavalier. 52 receptions and 4 TD's as a sophomore in 2006 and then a redshirt year in 2007 followed by 58 receptions and 5 TD's as a junior. Two honorable mentions for All-ACC sandwiched around an injury. That makes you think you can enter the draft? Alas, he went undrafted.
Next red mark is his career production, as mentioned above. His stats last night were arguably better in one game than any of his first three seasons. As John Madden would say, "Boom." That came out of nowhere.
Or did it?
In the Prime Profile we like to talk about age range, opportunity, and something we call "green flags" with environmental changes. (Among many other things.) Ogletree's age range is ideal. He has gotten the endorsement and apparently the trust of one of the better quarterbacks in the league in Tony Romo. So there should be some additional opportunity there. Plus, Miles Austin has been a bit banged up, Dez Bryant is a flake, and Jason Witten hasn't seen practice for a month. Opportunity.
And, on top of it all, there is a bigger reason why there is o there was a receiver in Dallas last year who was 4th in the league in touchdowns. That guy's name has not been mentioned in this article - Laurent Robinson. Where is Laurent Robinson now? Well, the star on his helmet has been replaced with a jaguar. Boom. Opportunity.
Who is going to get those 11 receiving touchdowns that Robinson had last year? Well we don't know about 9 of them, but the other 2 went to Ogletree last night.
And, while I'm typing let me just point out that one of those TD's was a beautiful improvisation by the 4th year Ogletree. Romo was flushed out of the pocket up the middle just inside the 10 yard line... Ogletree was on a crossing route from the left to the right... the two linebackers stepped up to stop the scramble... Ogletree broke toward the back of the endzone, creating separation, hand in the air... Romo pulled up before the line of scrimmage and hit Ogletree in the hands with a quick strike. That, my friends, was beautiful football. You can't really teach that. It takes at least 3 or 4 years in the league to learn that sort of feel for the game.
Bottom line is that we still don't know. However, Ogletree is probably a better upside gamble lottery ticket than the WR5 that is currently on your bench. He should be owned in all formats and definitely could break out. Heck, getting more yards than he's had since high school shouldn't be too tough.
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