The Baltimore Ravens made a curious move earlier this week by scooping up WR Lee Evans from the Buffalo Bills, but does that make Evans a perfect fantasy football fit in Baltimore?
Evans was the long-time down-field threat in Buffalo until Steve Johnson (ranked 30th in WR rankings) came along, and the initial ripple effect I am seeing is that Evans’ fantasy football value will just magically rise because of Joe Flacco, and a better Ravens team to back him up.
Not true. In fact it is that sort of short sightedness that can get you in trouble and here’s why.
- The last two seasons, Evans has been less than stellar putting up an average of 595 yards, 5 TDs and 40 catches—that’s borderline WR3 material.
- If you are going to assume he’ll do better because of Joe Flacco, then at least remind yourself he already had a quality QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick who was comparable to Flacco:
|
Completion % |
Pass Yards |
TDs |
INTs |
300Yd Games |
|
|
Fitzpatrick |
57.8 |
3,000 |
23 |
15 |
2 |
|
Flacco |
62.6 |
3,622 |
25 |
10 |
1 |
- Don’t forget about rookies Torrey Smith and Tandon Doss either, who have been lighting it up in practice. The team is very high on them, and the Ravens plan to integrate them into the system early and often this season.
Dynasty/Keeper Analysis: If you’re in a Dynasty or Keeper league, Lee Evans is an obvious player to pass on. There’s no value or common sense in holding onto a 30 year old receiver who hasn’t been a true WR1 since 2006 (his only real good year mind you), and with Smith and Doss playing the role of “future stars” there is certainly zero reason why you would entertain such a notion.
Standard League Analysis: If you’re in a Standard league, I think you are looking at more risk than reward. In order for Evans to put up those coveted TDs, he’s going to need plenty of opportunities, in an already crowded kitchen.
To make matters worse, the Ravens plan to feature Ray Rice (ranked 4th in RB rankings) and their ground game in red-zone situations leaving even less opportunities for fantasy football owners to take advantage of—just not a lot of upside here.
PPR / Mixed League / Other: If you’re weighing the options against the risk factors by suggesting to yourself “I can deal with Evans as a WR3 if he puts up close to 600 yards, five TDs and 40 catches..." that’s fine, but the receiver pool will have to be pretty thin to justify such a case.
If Evans goes higher than a sixth round selection; that’s a blatant waste of a draft pick. I’m not seeing very many people buying into the hype in the mock draft rooms which is good, and at this point, I’m just not sold that he’s more of a boom receiver than a bust.
Final Analysis: Try to find someone better suited for your team and leave him on the waivers and your watch list.
