Lesean Mccoy: The beginning of the end?

Yesterday Lesean Mccoy ran for 22 yards on 19 carries.  More importantly he left the in the first quarter after sustaining what appeared to be a head injury. He returned later, but didn’t resemble the outstanding running back we know as Shady.

Lesean Mccoy had a picture perfect 2013 season but carried the ball 314 times

There are several possible explanations for Lesean Mccoy's disappointing game, but a few stand out.

1.) The Redskins outstanding run defense.  Actually, I wrote that sentence with every intention of mocking the ‘skins... but this season opponents have run for 194 yards on 69 carries for a stellar 2.0 yards against.  Granted, Lesean Mccoy’s 1.2 ypc from Sunday pulls that average down, but it’s still very notable.

2.)Lesean Mccoy sustained a concussion and talked his way back into the game against the judgement of doctors.  Mccoy was on the ground for a while after the hit. It’s not out of the the realm of possibility that he sustained a minor concussion but was able to pass enough of the tests to be reinstated. If this were the case, It would quickly explain why Mccoy had such a terrible outing.

If it’s one of the first two possible explanations, there is little to fear for the rest of Lesean Mccoy’s season.  However, there’s a third possibility.

3.) If you’ve played any amount of fantasy football, you are acutely aware of the 300 carries barrier. The short version of concept goes like this: When a back runs for 300 carries in a given season, the following season he has a SHARP decline in production.

Here’s a link to an outstanding article breaking down the stats on the 300 carriers barrier.  http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/What-happens-after-300-carries.html  And this is a follow-up article from the following season. http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/What-happens-after-300-carries-revisited.html.

One of the most telling statistics is that of the 80 players since 2002 with 300 carries in a season, 40 of them missed at least one game the next year. In fact... quoting the linked article

“Of the 44 running backs who saw their fantasy production drop by 50 or more points following their 300+ carry season, 24 (54.5%) appeared in fewer games the next year while 21 (47.7%) played in at least three less matchups.”

Lesean Mccoy’s performance might be able to be blamed on the Washington defense or the possible concussion, but all season his numbers have been very down. 42 carries for 153, which is an average of 3.75 yards per carry. Against his carry ypc average of 4.7 and last years amazing 5.1... the 3.75 is alarmingly low. He is certainly showing the expected decline after a 300 carry season. What remains is whether or not he’ll be in the 50% of players that misses games. If he was concussed, is it the beginning of a series of concussions or perhaps a string of seemingly unrelated injuries?

This is a fantasy article, so there needs to be some spin. If I’m an owner of Lesean Mccoy, I’m seriously considering packaging him in a 2-2 deal which steps me back at the RB position but seriously upgrades me at another.  Another option is to go 1-1 and try and grab an RB off the waiver wire. I’m looking at this article for help on trade targets, and this article for waiver help.