So, there I am Friday thinking, “ugh, I’m a moron.” To be truthful, I think that far more often than I’d like to admit. Still, I was staring down the barrel of having played Aaron Rodgers and Alshon Jeffery and scoring a combined ten points. If there was a “resign match” button next to my fantasy team, I would have clicked it. In our own Knuckleheads experts’ league, I subbed in Randall Cobb at the last minute. In terms of fantasy football, by Friday my lineup decisions were about as poor as they could possibly be.
Then I remembered, I had broken the number one rule of Fantasy sports management: don’t. get. cute.
It’s tough. We all get feelings, hunches, moments of inspiration. Indeed, ignoring that little voice inside of us that has guided us wisely so frequently is very difficult to do, especially in a scenario where we have all the power, we make all our own roster choices, we command and control! Ahhh, yes, but with that power also comes responsibility, as the cliche goes, and the age-old wisdom is quite important to remember when setting your weekly lineup. And of course, never. get. cute.
In the war against cute-ness, which we must all fight on a weekly basis, I then submit to you the following offering: 2012’s week three top-75!
MY MISSION STATEMENT
What frustrates me above all else are so-called fantasy advice columns that fit into one of two categories:
1) They refuse to stray from conventional wisdom, often until it’s weeks too late to save or help your season or
2) They only offer rankings commentary on the “big-name” guys that everyone knows to play anyway. Gee, Adrian Peterson will have a bounce back week and I shouldn’t bench him forDannyWoodhead? Thanks!
Each week I will examine what I consider to be the most pressing issues facing fantasy owners. I will try to focus only on issues that you may actually be concerned with, namely: marginal flex players, tough matchup decisions, and above all else, how to assimilate new information from the previous week. This is a column of the people, by the people, for the people. And as long as I’m offering oaths, I promise to always tackle the difficult questions as I see them, not be chained by conventional wisdom, and not allow traditional or draft-position bias to affect myweeklyrankings.
Week 3 Top-75 Flex Rankings
1. Ray Rice
2. Arian Foster
3. CJ Spiller
4. LeSean McCoy
5. DeMarco Murray
6. Calvin Johnson
7. Jimmy Graham
8. Rob Gronkowski
9. Michael Bush
10. Frank Gore
11. Darren McFadden
12. Marshawn Lynch
13. Reggie Bush
14. Trent Richardson
15. Victor Cruz
Statements
I am making a serious statement here: no MJD in the top-15. Last week the Colts made Adrian Peterson look like Adrian Pedestrian (oh!) and Jones-Drew hasn’t shown me much yet to believe the same won’t happen again. It looks like Forte won’t play, and the last time Chicago played the Rams (in 2009), they ran the ball 38 times. Yeah, that was kind of a Mike Martz “look, we CAN run the ball!” game, but I believe in Michael Bush and he should dominate both the touches and goal-line work. Another serious statement: CJ Spiller has been awesome. You don’t need me to tell you that, but my ranking should reflect just how seriously the fantasy community needs to take his production. I’m not sure what happens when Fred Jackson returns, but until then, he’s in my top-5 to stay. Cruz has a great matchup, though I am curious how the absence of Hakeem Nicks will affect the Thursday-nighter: it could increase his targets or it could draw extra attention his way. In any case, I think he’s a must-start and you wouldn’t be incorrect (ah! double negatives!) to have high expectations.
16. Doug Martin
17. AJ Green
18. Maurice Jones-Drew
19. Adrian Peterson
20. Julio Jones
21. Roddy White
22. Vernon Davis
23. Stevan Ridley
24. Brandon Marshall
25. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
26. Alfred Morris
27. Demaryius Thomas
28. Brandon Marshall
29. Steve Smith
30. Jamaal Charles
Consistency and Inconsistency
Vernon Davis and Alfred Morris have actually been quite consistent thus far, in both scoring and targets/touches respectively, and so we find them in the top-30. Meanwhile, Julio Jones should probably be higher on the list, but his early returns are similar to last year: dominance and quiet. Still, I like all of the Atlanta passing game, including the ageless Tony Gonzalez. The Bears, and Brandon Marshall, won’t be that bad every week. Steve Smith needs to find the endzone, and I do like his teammate, Brandon LaFell, quite a bit too. Honestly, this is the week for Jamaal Charles. Can he overcome the soreness and put his injury behind him? If he doesn’t do it in New Orleans, I will have to seriously downgrade him for the rest of the year. It’s very dramatic to say it’s now or never for Charles in 2012, but I’m sure many of his owners already feel that way. Uh, this just in: Demaryius Thomas can damn well play. He also has a sure-thing hall of famer throwing to him.
31. Percy Harvin
32. Darren Sproles
33. Willis McGahee
34. Ryan Matthews
35. Andre Johnson
36. Mike Wallace
37. Andre Brown
38. Pierre Garcon
39. Steven Jackson
40. Chris Johnson
41. Tony Gonzalez
42. Dwayne Bowe
43. Michael Turner
44. Antonio Gates
45. Miles Austin
The Question Marks
Matthews, Wallace, Garcon, S-Jax, and Gates may not even play. But if they do, this is how I value them. McGahhee had a marvelous week and should produce well, but not that well. I still can’t help but think it’s only a matter of time before we see the Ronnie Hillman show in Denver. Willis looked great last week, but still... Andre Brown interests me greatly this week. With Nicks and Bradshaw both out, the Giants will be looking for someone to carry the load. I really don’t know what to do with Chris Johnson, but I think you still have to play him. If you have a better option though, I wouldn’t blame you for using it. Yeah, Dwayne Bowe got his points when the game was already out of hand, but the Chiefs are in New Orleans this week, and a repeat is not that outlandish.
46. Reggie Wayne
47. Marques Colston
48. Cedric Benson
49. Vincent Jackson
50. Jordy Nelson
51. Dez Bryant
52. Wes Welker
53. Desean Jackson
54. Brandon LaFell
55. Greg Jennings
56. Brandon Lloyd
57. Malcom Floyd
58. Larry Fitzgerald
59. Brent Celek
60. Donald Brown
Packers and Patriots and Eagles, Oh My!
Yeah, this feels about right for the Packers. I’m not sure how I feel about them traveling to Seattle after a less-than-inspiring home game with the Bears. I do like Benson moving forward though. He actually looked quite spry, and the Packers clearly seem to want to get him more involved. I don’t think Jeremy Maclin plays this week, but if he does, somewhere in this range seems appropriate. I may be too low on Reggie Wayne, who is having a very nice bounce-back 2012 so far. For the past two weeks, I have been low on Larry Fitzgerald. Last week, I finally received all the justification I needed to drop him out of the top-50. The problem isn’t Fitz, it’s his quarterback and surrounding talent. He has all the talent in the world, but if they can’t get him the ball and/or he’s constantly double-covered, it’s hard to produce. Yes, I’d seriously rather play Brandon LaFell this week... now that’s a statement.
61. Steve Johnson
62. Antonio Brown
63. Ben Tate
64. DeAngelo Williams
65. Eric Decker
66. Daniel Amendola
67. Dennis Pitta
68. Torrey Smith
69. Michael Crabtree
70. Jason Witten
71. Kenny Britt
72. Pierre Thomas
73. Santonio Holmes
74. Lance Moore
75. Brandon Pettigrew
Final Thoughts
I’m staying away from the Detroit backfield this week- starting either guy could blow up in your face. I may be too low on Steve Johnson, and I’m obviously assuming Carolina’s Johnathan Stewart doesn’t play. Yes, in the Ravens passing game, I think it’s 1) Pitta 2) Smith. Don’t sleep on Kenny Britt: he tears up the NFC and rumor has it he’s in for a near-full workload. I really don’t feel comfortable using anyone from the Saints outside of Sproles/Graham/Colston, but if you’re in a pinch, you could do worse than Thomas and Moore.
As always, best of luck in week 3! Tweet your ppr, half-ppr, or other questions to: @petethegreekff
