Every top dynasty player knows that it can only take one or two key moves in a season to turn your team from a mid-pack chump to serious contender. The waiver wire during the year is a key place to accomplish this but that’s only half the battle. Moves in the off-season are just as important to maintaining a rock solid squad year after year. What I'm talking about here are trades. Never underestimate the value of, and personal satisfaction of, totally jamming up one of your buddies in a well-orchestrated trade. In order to stay ahead of the game going into next season you need to know when to get maximum value from last seasons over performers and snag those future players who are going to over perform in the upcoming season.
Trade DeMarco Murray
Yes you are reading this correctly. For those of you who think this is preposterous, you’re the kind of Fantasy Football player I love to prey on in the off-season. Coming off the season Murray had almost 400 touches, there is almost no way he performs at that level again. History always repeats itself and running backs that finish in tops in scoring one year almost never do so again the next year. Look at Lesean McCoy from last season. If you had him coming into last season you were probably jacked up heading into the year. Chances are you were starting waiver wire pickups Justin Forsett or CJ Anderson over McCoy come playoff time. Right now DeMarco Murray is at peak value, and I think now is the time to take the risk. If he takes the hometown discount and returns to Dallas then I could be wrong, but it’s not looking like this will happen. If he ends up in Tennessee or Jacksonville then his trade value will also diminish slightly. The second factor is that he is injury prone. Especially coming off last seasons wear and tear, his body is no doubt more broken down that previously, and full health has never been his strong point.
Trade Him For Who?
So, who should you target when you finally agree with me and put him on the block? Well, I am always an advocate in getting talented young receivers in dynasty. They generally stay healthier, their careers are longer, and they league is only getting more pass happy. You could also sneak in a draft pick and/or a running back that could have a break out year. It’s not unlikely that there's that guy in your league whose eyes would light up at the chance to get Murray. You could propose Murray for something like Jordan Matthews and Carlos Hyde. This could pay heavy dividends since Jeremy Maclin is a free against and may sign somewhere else and Hyde is ready to step into being that every down back sooner than later in San Francisco. I think it'll pay off in the long run; you might even be able to throw in your 3rd for his 2nd round pick to. That subtle move up in draft picks is content for another day.
One bold move like trading Murray now can make a huge difference to your upcoming season. This same philosophy can also be extended to other players that have had a huge year last year. You have to ask yourself “What are the chances they have a repeat performance?" If the answer is maybe or probably not, find that guy in your league that thinks they will. It never hurts to prey on that homer in your league as well. Always try them first. If they are a Cowboys fan perhaps they are in love with Murray even more. The "Homer" angle, as well as the sly draft position angle is a couple of my favorite things that I will elaborate on further in an upcoming article.