I’ll admit it. I haven’t been this excited for a season to start in awhile. Yeah, I just finished a marathon weekend of drafts literally every night, including a keeper league auction marathon that finished around 2 a.m. local time. It was, in point of fact, a record-setting auction: it marked the first draft that went so long I ran out of beer. And yeah, by the end of the fifth consecutive day/night of drafting, I was pretty much fantasy football'ed out.
Until I woke up the next morning.
I think I’ve hit refresh on my league pages upwards of two hundred times today. And that may be selling myself short.
What is it, then, that makes 2015 so exciting? I mean, every NFL season has story-lines, and while 2015’s may be somewhat more compelling in a general sense-- Deflategate, The return of Adrian Peterson, the power struggles forthcoming in several divisions (Honestly, I think every single NFC division is going to go right down to the wire)-- I don’t particularly believe it’s more intense than any other NFL inaugural week. Is it?
Maybe it is. Or maybe it’s the spirit of camaraderie developed from five-hour nights of Skype and Google Hangouts oohing and aahing or downright ridiculing reaches, overpays, and steals. Maybe it’s the great team names (“Tom Brady’s Balls”, “Honey Funchess of Oats,” and “The Rosterbator” were among my favorites). I can’t quite put a finger on it, but it’s something.
And here we are. Week one. It feels like it sprung on me, despite my weeks of preparation, reading, listening, here it actually is!
And with the return of football comes the return of my weekly Flex rankings.
MY MISSION STATEMENT
Read more about how I detest mission statements.. What frustrates me above all else are so-called fantasy advice columns that fit into one of two categories:
- They refuse to stray from conventional wisdom, often until it’s weeks too late to save or help your season.
- They only offer rankings commentary on the “big-name” guys that everyone knows to play anyway. Gee, Adrian Peterson will have a bounce back week and I shouldn’t bench him for Danny Woodhead? Thanks!
Each week I will examine what I consider to be the most pressing issues facing fantasy owners. I will try to focus only on issues that you may actually be concerned with, namely: marginal flex players, tough matchup decisions, and above all else, how to assimilate new information from the previous week. This is a column of the people, by the people, for the people (thanks, Abe). And as long as I’m offering oaths, I promise to always tackle the difficult questions as I see them, not be chained by conventional wisdom, and not allow traditional or draft-position bias to affect my weekly rankings.
Week 1 Top 75
1. Eddie Lacy
2. Jeremy Hill
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Jamaal Charles
5. Julio Jones
6. Randall Cobb
7. Demarco Murray
8. Lamar Miller
9. Dez Bryant
10. Antonio Brown
11. Matt Forte
12. Demaryius Thomas
13. Rob Gronkowski
14. CJ Anderson
15. Marshawn Lynch
The A Team
Look, if you have these guys, you’re playing them. But yes, in the very rare circumstance that you have, say, all of the top-3 above, that’s the way I’m playing them. I think Hill feasts on Oakland, and there’s a case to be made he should be the top play this week. Except, does anyone think the Bears have a snowball’s chance in Phoenix to stop Green Bay? I certainly don’t. Sure, their defense is probably somewhat improved from 2014 with Vic Fangio calling the shots as D-coord, but they won’t have improved enough to slow down Green Bay. Only the Pack slow down the Pack. I’m obviously assuming Cobb plays without limitation and oh, did I mention? The Bears can’t stop anyone. Julio is likely going to be his own version of Beast Mode this year, and that starts in week one. I love Gronk and think he has a huge game in the season opener.
16. Odell Beckham Jr.
17. Calvin Johnson
18. AJ Green
19. LeSean McCoy
20. Justin Forsett
21. Jordan Matthews
22. Brandin Cooks
23. Martellus Bennett
24. Johnathan Stewart
25. Jeremy Maclin
26. Andre Ellington
27. Mark Ingram
28. Davante Adams
29. Alshon Jeffery
30. Carlos Hyde
Surprise, Surprise!
Yes, that’s Martellus Bennett at 23. Martysaurus Rex has a tendency to start the season on fire and with a banged up Chicago receiving corps (obviously with my no. 29, I think Jeffery plays), I believe Jay Cutler looks Bennett’s way early and often in a game where Chicago will need to score to catch up. I don’t think there’s a better bet to get in the end zone than Bennett, who might find pay dirt more than once. I love the upside in 24-30 in this group, particularly Davante Adams, for obvious reasons, but I also think Carlos Hyde might surprise some people. He didn’t get a whole lot of love this preseason, but the job is his, he’s competent, and he’s a 3-down back. I’m intrigued.
31. Chris Ivory
32. Emmanuel Sanders
33. Alfred Morris
34. Isaiah Crowell
35. Mike Evans
36. Jimmy Graham
37. DeAndre Hopkins
38. Brandon Marshall
39. Keenan Allen
40. Jarvis Landry
41. TY Hilton
42. Frank Gore
43. Julian Edelman
44. Travis Kelce
45. Latavius Murray
46. Doug Martin
47. Greg Olsen
48. Melvin Gordon
49. Amari Cooper
50. Ameer Abdullah
About those rankings:
I really like Ameer Abdullah, and would rather play his upside than Joique Bell’s stability. It’s typically against common logic to play TEs in the flex- you should start your strong TEs in the TE position- but I’m ranking the above three as such because I believe in their scoring ability and, in the case of Olsen, I think he’ll be a target machine. Hey, it’s week one. We don’t know, really, what to expect from rookies, but I obviously like the talent of Amari Cooper and the situation of Melvin Gordon enough to be willing to roll the dice with them. Alfred Morris will likely plod his way to another very respectable, glad-you-drafted-him-when-he-fell season. Gore might do the same, though if I’m between one of two Colts in the flex, I think I still play Hilton and hope for the upside to hit. Though you can clearly see I hedged a bit there. And yes, I think Mike Evans will be fine.
51. Allen Robinson
52. Andre Johnson
53. TJ Yeldon
54. Joseph Randle
55. Alfred Blue
56. Steve Smith, Sr.
57. Rashad Jennings
58. Nelson Agholor
59. Golden Tate
60. Charles Johnson
61. Vincent Jackson
62. Eddie Royal
63. Sammy Watkins
64. Tevin Coleman
65. Joique Bell
66. Desean Jackson
67. DeAngelo Williams
68. Jordan Cameron
69. Eric Decker
70. Giovani Bernard
71. Tre Mason
72. John Brown
73. Jason Witten
74. Marques Colston
75. Ryan Mathews
The Yin and the Yang
I think Atlanta-Philly is a shootout, so use all your position players accordingly. Eddie Royal is a sneaky play this week - I could see him finding the end zone and finding his fair share of targets, as well. Second receivers fared well against the Browns last year, I could see that trend continuing for Eric Decker. I may be far too low on Joseph Randle, TJ Yeldon, and Rashad Jennings, but I really want to “see it” from each player and their respective team first before moving them up the list. I was trying really hard to find a way not to rank Desean Jackson, as I want no part of the Redskins passing game, but at some point talent has to play.
Best of luck in week one. As always you can tweet me: @pkaragianis