MY MISSION STATEMENT
What frustrates me above all else are so-called fantasy advice columns that fit into one of two categories:
1) They refuse to stray from conventional wisdom, often until it’s weeks too late to save or help your season or
2) They only offer rankings commentary on the “big-name” guys that everyone knows to play anyway. Gee, Adrian Peterson will have a bounce back week and I shouldn’t bench him for Danny Woodhead? Thanks!
Each week I will examine what I consider to be the most pressing issues facing fantasy owners. I will try to focus only on issues that you may actually be concerned with, namely: marginal flex players, tough matchup decisions, and above all else, how to assimilate new information from the previous week. This is a column of the people, by the people, for the people. And as long as I’m offering oaths, I promise to always tackle the difficult questions as I see them, not be chained by conventional wisdom, and not allow traditional or draft-position bias to affect my weekly rankings.
Week 10 Top-75
1. Ray Rice
2. Doug Martin
3. Adrian Peterson
4. AJ Green
5. Arian Foster
6. Marshawn Lynch
7. LeSean McCoy
8. Julio Jones
9. Stevan Ridley
10. Matt Forte
11. Roddy White
12. Rob Gronkowski
13. Calvin Johnson
14. Frank Gore
15. Wes Welker
The Big Boys
Welcome back, New England Patriots. Fresh off a bye and, previously, a drubbing of the St. Louis Rams, the Patriots get a soft matchup with the Buffalo Bills, who don’t really stop the run or the pass. To that end, we find three Pats in the top 15. How can I not have Doug Martin number one? Let’s be real, he won’t match last week’s performance again... perhaps ever. He may not even match the fantasy output of two weeks ago. Still, he’s an integral part of the Bics offense and uh, he’s fast. And good. You know who else is fast and good? Ray Rice, who gets the same Oakland defense that Martin destroyed last week.
16. Victor Cruz
17. Michael Turner
18. Jimmy Graham
19. Tony Gonzalez
20. CJ Spiller
21. Demaryius Thomas
22. Chris Johnson
23. Eric Decker
24. Brandon Marshall
25. Marques Colston
26. Ryan Matthews
27. Ahmad Bradshaw
28. Mikel Leshoure
29. Vincent Jackson
30. Reggie Bush
Broncos and Tight Ends
Atlanta - New Orleans: Not a Defensive Struggle, Part I. I like both tight ends to score and rack up some decent yardage. If Buffalo keeps pace with New England, it’s CJ Spiller’s fault. Meanwhile, Chris Johnson’s hot streak likely ends this week, but I’d still take him for, say, 80 yards and a score. I really like Eric Decker, but more importantly, so does Peyton Manning. Deckers has four TDs in his past two weeks and 7 in his past five. Wow. Honestly, I may be too high on Ryan Matthews. He’s no longer getting the bulk of the workload and the Bucs can stop the run. I don’t like using him this week, but you probably have to.
31. Mike Wallace
32. Jamaal Charles
33. Miles Austin
34. Jason Witten
35. Denarius Moore
36. Brandon Lloyd
37. Steve Smith
38. Andre Johnson
39. Heath Miller
40. Steve Johnson
41. Dwayne Bowe
42. Desean Jackson
43. Brian Hartline
44. Vernon Davis
45. Dez Bryant
I believe...
...that Jamaal Charles owners probably think no. 32 is too high. That Vernon Davis owners probably think no. 44 is too high. That both score this week. That the Titans can’t stop anyone, and Brian Hartline has a nice game. That Steve Johnson plays, and scores. That Denarius Moore is a top-15 receiver by year’s end. That Dwayne Bowe gets some junk-time this week. That Andre Johnson is a buy low. That somebody’s gotta catch passes when Caroline tries to play catchup to Denver, and that somebody is Steve Smith. That Mike Wallace gets a lot of work with Antonio Brown likely out.
46. Mike Williams
47. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
48. Fred Jackson
49. Isaac Redman
50. Hakeem Nicks
51. Aaron Hernandez
52. Torrey Smith
53. Marcel Reece
54. Jonathan Stewart
55. Shonn Greene
56. Jeremy Maclin
57. Kenny Britt
58. Malcom Floyd
59. Lance Moore
60. Steven Jackson
The “I Guess”-ing Game
I really want to add a lot of “I guesses”, with different intonations and punctuations to the end of a lot of the ranks for this tier. Like: Isaac Redmann (I guess?) or, Shonn Greene (I guess...) or, Steven Jackson (...I guess) or, Hakeem Nicks (I guess!? C’mon!) or, Marcel Reece (I... guess?). A few who may be too low and outperform their tier: Jeremy Maclin (should see more targets), Kenny Britt (if Kendall Wright is limited in any way, Britt has a great matchup), and Isaac Redman (if he’s for sure the starter and gets the bulk of the work).
61. Danny Amendola
62. Titus Young
63. Owen Daniels
64. Antonio Gates
65. Sidney Rice
66. Jeremy Kerley
67. Felix Jones
68. Shane Vereen
69. Jacquizz Rodgers
70. Brandon Myers
71. Michael Crabtree
72. Pierre Thomas
73. Anquan Boldin
74. Daniel Thomas
75. Jermaine Gresham
Don’t Forget!
Danny Amendola is due back this week, but has a tough matchup. Still, I think he’s usable. Felix Jones is still Felix Jones. Brandon Myers found the endzone. Sidney Rice is returning to form. Shane Vereen could rack up a lot of garbage-time yardage against a terrible Bills run defense. Daniel Thomas is still seeing carries, and has a great matchup. Jermaine Gresham remains Andy Dalton’s second option in the passing game. Jacquizz Rodgers makes a very sneaky play this week against the Saints. I could see him taking a swing pass to the house from distance.
Best of luck in week 10! As always you can tweet me: @petethegreekff