Monday I night I sat watching the undefeated New Orleans Saints battle the revived New England Patriots. It was a strange feeling, as I picked the Pats to upset the Saints, but I was rooting for New Orleans anyway. I was glad I called the outcome wrong. It was not the only upset call I missed last week either. I also picked the undefeated Colts to be downed by the Texans. Early on it looked like I was going to be a genius, but I knew the minute bad officiating stole Houston's third touchdown (a nice pass to Andre Johnson) the game was going to tilt back to Indy. Note to refs (and argumentative Colts fans), the ground can't cause a fumble. As expected, the Colts scored immediately after the Texans had to settle for a field goal, then they went on a tear. I sometimes wonder if the Colts just call it in until they are forced to start playing.
My reason for calling both upsets? The odds were against both teams winning to go 24-0. Both teams have had some very close calls lately against less than dominating teams. While this hurts my predication stats, I'm secretly glad both won. Overall I went a terrible 9-7. My second worst week of the season. Other games that were a surprise; another Steelers overtime loss (though I thought Ben would play), the Broncos can of whoop-ass on NYG, and the Cards failure to torch the Titans secondary.
Let's see if I can get back on tracks this week. I asked Santa for a 16-0 week, but I've been way too naughty for such good fortune.
–Team Defense Start and Sit – Week 13–
Key:
|
Start 'em |
Sit 'em |
Plug and Play |
| Solid defensive option | If they are on your bench, leave 'em there | Reasonable risk/reward option |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
Thursday Night Football from Toronto |
||
|
|
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills |
|
|
This is technically a home game for the Bills, though they'll be playing at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Canada. In their previous meeting this season, the Bills won on the strength of Jets turnovers. This time they have a real opportunity to win it with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Terrell Owens, if their poor rush defense can keep Thomas Jones out of the endzone. My initial instinct is to pick the Jets here, but the Bills interim coach Perry Fewell has lit a fire under his team and I think they'll steal this one as well. |
||
|
San Francisco at Seattle Seahawks |
A contest between NFC West foes, both out of the play-off hunt. Seattle Coach Jim Mora is the giving the ball back to Julius Jones for the 'Hawks. That alone may be enough to give the win to San Francisco. This could be a shoot out, and I don't like either defense this week. I like QB Alex Smith to have a solid day for the 49ers, which makes Vernon Davis a great play as well. The Seahawks are better at home, but their secondary is so banged up it's hard to feel good about them.
|
Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers |
Ben Roethlisberger should be back under center again this week, but it shouldn't matter as Dennis Dixon should have no problem winning this game. The Steeler's have lost two in a row in overtime. Look for this game to be a one sided affair. Rashard Mendenhall should have a huge day, and I think the Steelers defense make make themselves known in this tilt.
|
Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons |
This week doesn't look good for the Falcons,even at home. Back-up QB Chris Redman gets the start, and Michael Turner, if he plays is still banged up. That said, the Eagles tend to play down to the team's they play, making sure wins into harrowing games. The Eagles defense is very opportunistic, so Redman will have to be very careful against the Philly secondary who are tied for third in the league with 18 interceptions. This game has the added allure of Michael Vick's return to his old team's stadium.
|
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers |
You may find this strange, but I actually think the Bucs could have a good fantasy defensive game this week. The Panthers are woeful at couching up the ball, and their likely QB this week is the untested Matt Moore. If Jake Delhomme does play, he's got a fractured finger. You do the math. The Panthers may be forced to run the ball all day. This is my upset pick of the week.
|
St. Louis Rams at Chicago Bears |
This could be an upset game if Jay Cutler can't tame his arm this week. The Rams have a chance to surprise against a QB who has thrown 20 picks in 11 games. The only reason I'm not pushing the Rams as a defensive start is they have have only 15 takeaways all season, so they don't do much to force the issue. The outcome of this game rides almost solely on Cutler's arm.
|
Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals |
Catfight! The Lions should have no chance against the surprising Bengals. They are top 5 against the run, and damn solid against the pass as well. Their defense averages one interception per game, and they face a team that leads the league with 22 interceptions surrendered. The Bengals defense has a solid chance to score a TD of its own this week, as Detroit surrenders the second most fantasy points to opposing defenses.
|
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts |
The Titans have looked like they did in 2008 since coming out of their bye with Vince Young at QB. They are undefeated post-bye, and facing a Colts team that has to keep coming from behind to stay perfect. Is this the week the Colts choke? Peyton Manning has surrendered two interceptions in back to back weeks.
|
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars |
The Jaguars play much better at home, but I don't see that helping them a whole lot this week. The Texans are starting to put it all together and I think Matt Schaub will have a nice game. Last time they met, Maurice Jones-Drew scored three times. Rookie Texan's LB, Brian Cushing should keep that from happening again this week.
|
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs |
Arrowhead Stadium is one of the toughest places for a QB to call a game. Fortunately the Broncos, Kyle Orton is a very solid game manager. The Broncos got back into the Win column with a decisive stomping of the New York Giants. Can Denver make it two in a row? The Chiefs did beat the Steelers a couple of weeks ago. But the Broncos need this win, and they'll get it.
|
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins |
Last time these two met I predicted the Dolphins would upset the Pats, and they did make the game closer than the final result. This week I expect the Pats to take a decisive victory after losing to the Saints and Colts. They'll be fired up and that makes their defense a decent play and Miami's a sit.
|
New Orleans Saints at Washington Redskins |
The Redskins surrender the fifth most fantasy points to opposing defenses, and the Saints, well they lead the league with 32 takeaways, including 22 interceptions. Between the Saints and Cincy, they are my two defensive plays of the week. I don't see the Saints having any trouble rolling to 13-0 this week.
|
San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns |
The Chargers have been on a tear since they got off to their typical up and down start. The schedule Gods have favored them with a sweet match-up this week that should help solidify their standing in the AFC West. The one intangible factor here is the weather. If the weather is as cold as expected, it's going to make Philip Rivers passing game more difficult. Fortunately for Chargers fans, the Browns run stop is deplorable.
|
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants |
What in the world has happened to the G-men? This is usually one of the bigger games of the year when these two meet, but right now the wind is blowing in the Cowboy's direction. however, Dallas plays worse on the road than at home. This battle could go either way. I think the Giant's are hungrier for the win, but this could be Tony Romo's coming out party for naysayers who claim he fades down the stretch when the games matter most.
|
Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals |
The Vikings are +8 in turnover differential, with Brett Favre surrendering three interceptions all season, and two came against the Steelers. The Cardinals play better on the road than they do at home. This all points to a Vikings victory, though anything is possible in the desert. The Cardinals will need to count on Kurt Warner's arm for a win.
|
Monday Night Football |
||
|
Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers |
||
|
This is one of those something's gotta give games. The Raven's defense have allowed less than 12 points a game over their five November starts, allowing no more than 17 in any of those. The Packers have scored less than 21 points only once all season, which was a 17-7 win over Dallas. In their five November starts Green Bay averaged about 22 points per game, and 25 PPG on average for the season. The Raven's Ray Rice has been a monster this year, beating up on even the staunchest rush defenses. He'll have another challenge this week as he goes for his 9th consecutive game with more than 100 total yards. Pack QB Aaron Rodgers has averaged over 2 passing TDs and 287 passing yards a game in five November starts, and added two rushing TDs. I like the Pack to make it four wins in a row. |
||
Check out all our Rankings, in our usual start sit fashion.
