Dear Loyal Readers,
In lieu of an introduction this week, please accept this letter and my apologies. If you really need a great lede (and somehow missed last week’s column), might I reference you to last week’s Thanksgiving traditions to forget. You can plug that one in here.
Instead, a quick note to all of you: for the past ten years (yes, ten) I have played in the most competitive 12-team league I have ever seen. Every guy in the league knows their stuff, reads at least 2-3 fantasy “experts” weekly, and does their homework before draft day and during the season. So competitive, in fact, that we nearly booted a league mate this year who didn’t set his roster accurately after a running back was ruled out on Saturday. One slip, you’re gone. That’s how we roll. Anyway, the point of this blathering is this: in that league, players are impossible to own. 95% of the “hot waiver pickups” given in any regular column won’t be available. I always assumed those articles were written for people who are in leagues with morons (and who may be morons themselves). Of course, with Peterson down, you grab Gerhart (already owned for us). Of course, DeMarco Murray (drafted in that league) was a hot pickup with Felix Jones out. Of course Denarius Moore... oh wait, he was drafted, too.
Looking at yesterday’s clutch plays column that I wrote, I realized I perpetuated the same nonsense that I dislike in fantasy football-dom. While Matt Moore is probably still available in all but the deepest of leagues, all of the position/flex players I gave you were likely owned if you’re in a league anywhere near as competitive as mine. To that end, I will work on a “going deep” piece for the fantasy playoffs for those of you in 12-team or deeper leagues with people who know what they’re doing. Look for it coming soon.
As always, you can tweet lineup questions, dissertations on astrological theory, or opening innovations in the Schliemann Ruy Lopez to: @petethegreekff
Best of luck,
_PDK
Top 75
1. LeSean McCoy
2. Matt Forte
3. Arian Foster
4. Ray Rice
5. Calvin Johnson
6. DeMarco Murray
7. Frank Gore
8. Chris Johnson
9. Wes Welker
10. LeGarette Blount
11. Greg Jennings
12. Michael Bush
13. Michael Turner
14. Jimmy Graham
15. Marshawn Lynch
The Big Boys
Not your good ol’ boys, though. Welcome to the top tier, Marshawn Lynch and Jimmy Graham. Graham could’ve been here all along, but finally due to matchups, injuries, or otherwise, he lands squarely at no. 14. He has been the model of consistency on one of the league’s best offenses.
Let’s talk about patterns. The Bears have a tendency of trying too much only to revert to what works: namely, the run game. I think Forte has a huge day here, either carrying the ball or taking screens and short passes and turning them into big gains. Blount has an amazing matchup and the Bucs have somehow waited until now to figure out their offense works much better when he gets a lot of touches. How did Raheem Morris not recognize this formula oh, say... in the preseason? Lynch is seeing a ton of touches. Foster may have trouble if the Houston passing game is completely inept. McCoy, if he plays, is still Mr. Stud.
16. Beanie Wells
17. Ryan Matthews
18. Steve Smith
19. Rob Gronkowski
20. Reggie Bush
21. Hakeem Nicks
22. Jason Witten
23. Johnathan Stewart
24. Mike Wallace
25. Steven Jackson
26. Victor Cruz
27. Laurent Robinson
28. Larry Fitzgerald
29. Roddy White
30. Brandon Marshall
The George Thorogood Show
AKA “Who Do You Love.” Is it obvious I have a man-crush on Johnathan Stewart? He didn’t do as much as I’d hoped last week against Indianapolis, but everyone knows you can beat the Bucs by handing the ball off and having a Coke and a smile. I think the Daily Show will reward me this week, and I will continue to carry his sword... or fall on it. What’s up with Dolphins being viable fantasy starters? Seriously. Two in the top 30? I must have lost my mind. When was the last time this happened? When Ronnie Brown was good? Yeah I remember that. That was when we still thought phrases like “hella” and “epic” were cool. Hm. Beanie doesn’t have a great matchup, but how can you not love him after that explosion in week 12? Still, I think Wells at 16 speaks more to the overall blase running back corps this season than it does his talents.
31. Willis McGahee
32. Jordy Nelson
33. Dez Bryant
34. Andre Johnson
35. Cedric Benson
36. Brandon Lloyd
37. Rashard Mendenhall
38. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
39. Darren Sproles
40. Tony Gonzalez
41. Vincent Jackson
42. AJ Green
43. DeSean Jackson
44. Toby Gerhart
45. Marques Colston
46. CJ Spiller
47. Aaron Hernandez
48. Shonn Greene
49. Steve Johnson
50. Dwayne Bowe
Yeah, I Don’t Know, Either...
...why Tyler Palko is still the supposed starter in KC (use your Bears D/ST!). ...if Adrian Peterson will play (I guess no). ...what makes butter cookies so ridiculously good. ...What to make of BenJarvus Green-Ellis. ...Why Desean Jackson still has a job. ...How Steve Johnson can own Derelle Revis after several subpar performances. ...why Spoon is such an underrated rock band. ...How long the Denver rushing attack will work. ...why Shonn Greene is so disappointing so frequently. ...if Jake Delhomme will make any difference at all in Houston. ...what my girlfriend wants for Christmas.
51. Brandon Jacobs
52. Antonio Brown
53. Plaxico Burress
54. Anquan Boldin
55. Eric Decker
56. Jermichael Finley
57. Peyton Hillis
58. Donald Brown
59. Santonio Holmes
60. Julio Jones
61. Maurice Morris
62. Deion Branch
63. Damian Williams
64. Riley Cooper
65. Johnny Knox
66. Ben Tate
67. Torrey Smith
68. Mark Ingram
69. Brent Celek
70. James Starks
71. Denarius Moore
72. Pierre Thomas
73. Mario Manningham
74. Michael Crabtree
75. Santana Moss
Trust Issues
The bottom 25 are full of question marks. Brandon Jacobs has been very unremarkable thus far and there is a chance, however slim, that Ahmad Bradshaw may return this week. Regardless, DJ Ware is getting plenty of work. Johnny Knox, Riley Cooper, Torrey Smith and to a lesser extent, Damian Williams are all high-risk high-reward plays. You’ll note the absence of any Indianapolis receivers from this list. Simply stated: I don’t trust any Colt. Period. Even when this game get ugly (which it will) and they have to throw (which they will), I’m steering clear. Julio Jones could have a nice day against a better-than average Houston pass defense, but apart from him the bottom 20 or so are all “if you need them” plays. I think you could do worse than the group above this week, and am using several of them myself in two must-win scenarios.
Bon chance, mes amis.
_PDK