Ah, the vague silhouette begins to form. The mist clears and, in the distance, just beyond the range of clear visibility, a dim figure emerges. The dark outline contrasts the murky background and you squint, attempting better vision, make a palm visor and place it even with your forehead, and peer intently at the approaching shape.
Of course, I’m referring to the early trends in the 2013 NFL season.
What have we learned through two weeks? Well, for starters:
1) The Washington Redskins are this year’s New Orleans Saints.
Maybe it’s the Washington name controversy. Maybe it’s the RG3 situation. Maybe it’s… who knows. But, whatever the cause, the 2013 Washington “To-Be-Renamed-Laters” are doing their best 2012 Saints impression and refusing to stop anyone or anything that opposing offenses throw at them. For the time being, this means that anyone facing Washington needs to be in your lineup every week, all the time, like, for serious. Up next? Megatron and the Lions. Enjoy.
2) Marc Trestman and Mike McCoy were good hires.
...and this affects your fantasy team. Anyone who drafted and started Martellus Bennett is patting himself on the back right now. To a lesser extent, the same can be said for Jay Cutler. I almost took Matt Forte with the third overall pick this past August and regret not doing so. Meanwhile, Philip Rivers is the number four scoring quarterback in most scoring formats. Yeah. While I don’t think he can sustain top-5 status the rest of the way, I like the early returns I’m seeing in San Diego, namely: McCoy is a significant upgrade over Norv Turner. San Diego’s play-calling has been smart, quick, and effective. I don’t think Rivers can keep up this torrid pace, but I do think his season, and perhaps career, has received a serious injection of life.
3) This just in: your studs will be fine.
Unless, perhaps, your stud is Maurice Jones-Drew. CJ Spiller and Alfred Morris bounced back this week and both broke the century mark in rushing yards while Marshawn Lynch bounced back in a big way with a huge Sunday night performance. This week, I think the trend continues for such names as Trent Richardson (who should find the endzone, finally) and Frank Gore (who doesn’t have to face Seattle in Seattle). This also just in: the Jaguars are really bad. And are playing Seattle in week 3. In Seattle. The Seattle Defense might just be the highest scorer in all of fantasy this week. Yikes.
On to the numbers!
MY MISSION STATEMENT
What frustrates me above all else are so-called fantasy advice columns that fit into one of two categories:
1) They refuse to stray from conventional wisdom, often until it’s weeks too late to save or help your season or
2) They only offer rankings commentary on the “big-name” guys that everyone knows to play anyway. Gee, Adrian Peterson will have a bounce back week and I shouldn’t bench him for Danny Woodhead? Thanks!
Each week I will examine what I consider to be the most pressing issues facing fantasy owners. I will try to focus only on issues that you may actually be concerned with, namely: marginal flex players, tough matchup decisions, and above all else, how to assimilate new information from the previous week. This is a column of the people, by the people, for the people. And as long as I’m offering oaths, I promise to always tackle the difficult questions as I see them, not be chained by conventional wisdom, and not allow traditional or draft-position bias to affect my weekly rankings.
Week 3 Top 75
1. Marshawn Lynch
2. Adrian Peterson
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Jamaal Charles
5. Matt Forte
6. Calvin Johnson
7. AJ Green
8. Trent Richardson
9. Alfred Morris
10. Doug Martin
11. Arian Foster
12. CJ Spiller
13. Brandon Marshall
14. Demaryius Thomas
15. Chris Johnson
The Big Boys
What? Have I lost my mind? Adrian Peterson not at number one? Look, these are hypothetical rankings. If you own both Peterson and Lynch, you are almost certainly starting them both. If I was in a one running back dynasty league where I somehow had both on my roster and could only play one of the two, yes, this week, I’d play Lynch. Seattle is going to dominate this game and be running the ball most of the day. Meanwhile, Christian Ponder continues to be Christian Ponder, and Cleveland’s defense isn’t all that terrible. It’s purely hypothetical, but yeah, that’s how I’d rank them this week.
Of course, last week, I mention how I think AJ Green will soon surpass the mighty Megatron for number one overall fantasy WR status and he promptly puts up a subpar effort against a bad Pittsburgh team while Calvin the Great nets 116 yards and two scores out in the desert. Yeah. These two are still 1 and 1a in my book, and Brandon Marshall (the second Bear inside the top-15!) is 1aa. Honestly, if you had to pick one NFL receiver who you felt almost was guaranteed to find the endzone this (or any given) week, wouldn’t you lean towards Chicago’s number 15?
16. Julio Jones
17. Knowshon Moreno
18. Dez Bryant
19. Jimmy Graham
20. Frank Gore
21. Ray Rice
22. Darren McFadden
23. Desean Jackson
24. Ahmad Bradshaw
25. Randall Cobb
26. Pierre Garcon
27. Darren Sproles
28. Giovani Bernard
29. Jordy Nelson
30. Jordan Cameron
Guys to Target
Pierre Garcon saw 13 targets in week two, UP from 11 in week one. I like him a lot this week and this year. Speaking of studs who will be fine, welcome to fantasy goodness, Julio Jones and Dez Bryant. I am obviously concerned about Ray Rice’s injury and considered not ranking him, but the belief is he will play. The larger problem is, the Ravens are a mess offensively right now. They really look to me like a team that has lost its identity, and no, this isn’t a Ray Lewis love story, I am referring strictly to the offensive side of the ball. So, uh, I know I’ve brought it up every week, but yeah, there’s a reason I said Knowshon Moreno was the back you wanted in Denver. Hopefully you listened back in the preseason, but if not, well, it’s too late. Someone’s already added him.
31. Vincent Jackson
32. Jason Witten
33. Julius Thomas
34. Daryl Richardson
35. Reggie Bush
36. Lamar Miller
37. Stevan Ridley
38. Wes Welker
39. Larry Fitzgerald
40. Rashard Mendenhall
41. Ryan Matthews
42. Reggie Wayne
43. Marques Colston
44. DeAngelo Williams
45. David Wilson
Question Marks and Safety Belts
Yeah, I am concerned about the health of Larry Fitzgerald and Reggie Bush. The rankings reflect my concerns, especially if both are limited in any capacity. Wes Welker has three scores through two weeks, but so does Julius Thomas. I’m really not high on Lamar Miller or Stevan Ridley, but both saw a significant number of touches last week and the theory is that eventually, they’ll do something with them (Miller managed to score, even). While I was admittedly too low on DeAngelo Williams last week, he didn’t even find a way to reach double-digit fantasy points despite 22 carries against a below average Bills defense. Also, his complete lack of involvement in the passing game remains a problem. A quick note on the Dwayne Allen injury: I think it benefits guys like Wayne and TY Hilton more than it does Colby Fleener. We’ll see how it plays out, but I don’t think Fleener (who did manage to find the endzone in week 2) is really a viable week-to-week option… yet. Sticking with tight ends, I like Jason Witten to have a nice week at home after a dud on the road against a pretty solid Kansas City team. And yeah, I guess I’m staying with David Wilson. Who else are they going to use?
46. Maurice Jones-Drew
47. Hakeem Nicks
48. Dwayne Bowe
49. Steve Johnson
50. Julian Edelman
51. Martellus Bennett
52. Torrey Smith
53. Anquan Boldin
54. Greg Olsen
55. Tony Gonzalez
56. James Jones
57. James Starks
58. Jacquizz Rodgers
59. Eddie Royal
60. DeAndre Hopkins
Reserves and Resurgents
I don’t expect the same sort of offensive explosion from the Packers this week, so temper your expectations if you plan to use James Starks. Still, I’d rather play Starks over Rodgers, filling in for an injured Steven Jackson. I actually like Greg Olsen a lot again, this week. He remains the top option in the Carolina passing game. Eddie Royal, fantasy MVP? He has been for the first two weeks. As I wrote above, I don’t think the Chargers can keep this up, but I do think there will be one consistently productive receiver on their roster, and so far all signs point to Royal. Enjoy it while it lasts. Poor MJD. I mean, I guess I could see him racking up a ton of garbage-time stats? And those still count for fantasy, right? Right? No, I don’t think Andre Johnson plays this week (that’s why he is unranked), but if that changes and we find out he will, I like him in the 31-39 range. In the meantime, DeAndre Hopkins should be more than serviceable, as should…
61. Owen Daniels
62. Eric Decker
63. Mike Wallace
64. TY Hilton
65. Jared Cook
66. Vernon Davis
67. Brandon Myers
68. Antonio Brown
69. Steve Smith
70. Miles Austin
71. Tavon Austin
72. Jermichael Finley
73. Ben Tate
74. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
75. Bilal Powell
75a. Chris Ivory
Bonus!
Look at that! For the first time in top-75 history, you get more than 75 names. My final ranking is more to say: I think both guys are usable, but like Powell slightly better. Between the receiving Austins above, I like Miles slightly better this week playing at home, though Tavon has tremendous upside. Mike Wallace had a nice week two, but I think he’s going to continue to be wildly inconsistent and can’t trust him week to week. If you’re in a total points league, play him and enjoy the ride. I am still having a hard time buying the whole Jermichael Finley thing, but two touchdowns in two weeks? And Aaron Rodgers playing out of his mind? I mean, I guess you have to roll with it for now. And yeah, I’m sticking with Ben Tate. At least one more week.
Best of luck in week 3. As always you can tweet lineup questions, rants, or general comments to: @petethegreekff or follow my blog: www.petegreek.blogspot.com.
_PDK
