For the past few weeks I've been kicking tail and taking names on Fanduel. I started with $50 in week 2 and have won $180 headed into week 4. I won 7 out of 11 match-ups last week (see image below) and figured I'd share part of my base evaluation process for those of you that either (a) want to try Fanduel or (b) are looking for FLEX starters headed into week 4.
Here is what I do to find the excellent match ups headed into the week and rank them accordingly.
- Get the top 10 or so fantasy points allowed by position (listed below)
- Find the obvious studs with great match ups (high dollar value guys on fanduel)
- Find the "flex starts" with great match ups that present high upside (low dollar value guys on fanduel)
- TOP 10 Teams allowing the most fantasy points to opposing QB's this year.
You can use this method to determine who is a great weekly fantasy play based on match up, helpful for you guys without a backup for Antonio Gates, more on that later.
I'll start at the Quarterback position.
TOP 10 Teams allowing the most fantasy points to opposing QB's this year.
1. New England Patriots vs. QB - 1,163 yards - 6 TD
2. Green Bay Packers vs. QB - 1,153 yards - 6 TD
3. Oakland Raiders vs. QB 937 yards 6 TD
4. Miami Dolphins vs. QB 957 yards 8 TD
5. St. Louis Rams vs. QB 799 yards 7 TD
6. Buffalo Bills vs. QB 829 yards 7 TD
7. New Orleans Saints vs. QB 929 yards 7 TD
8. Arizona Cardinals vs. QB 884 yards 4 TD
9. Kansas City Chiefs vs. QB 796 yards 8 TD
10. Minnesota Vikings vs. QB 956 yards 5 TD
QB Match-ups to exploit in week 4 are:
- Jason Campbell faces the New England Patriots who, as you see above, are allow a sever amount of fantasy stats to opposing QB's.
- Rex Grossman AKA "Sexy Rexy" have a juicy match-up against St. Louis Rams who rank 5th in most fantasy points allowed.
- Andy Dalton should bounce back this week versus the Bills, who rank 6th in points allowed to opposing QB's.
- Eli Manning comes to mind over the next several weeks, this week he face the Cardinals who allow the 8th most fantasy points to Quarterbacks. Excellent Value on Fanduel.
The obvious starter with exceptional match ups:
- Tom Brady obviously.. Oakland just sweetens the pot.
- Phillip Rivers is another no brain-er with a sweet match-up versus Miami who ranks 4th in most points allowed.
Here are are WEEK 4 Quarterback Rankings
TOP 10 Teams allowing the most fantasy points to opposing RB's this year.
1. Philadelphia Eagles vs. RB 394 yards 2 TD, 15 Catches for 185 yards 3 TD
2. Kansas City Chiefs vs. RB 360 yards 5 TD, 16 Catches for 153 1 TD
3. Oakland Raiders vs. RB 305 yards 2 TD, 24 Catches for 283 2 TD
4. St. Louis Rams vs. RB 399 yards 2 TD, 19 Catches for 187 1 TD
5. Minnesota Vikings vs. RB 190 yards 3 TD, 27 Catches for 256 2 TD
6. New York Jets vs. RB 356 yards 4 TD, 15 Catches for 106 0 TD
7. Buffalo Bills vs. RB 292 yards 2 TD, 25 Catches for 152 2 TD
8. New England Patriots vs. RB 202 yards 2 TD, 30 Catches for 271 1 TD
9. Indianapolis Colts vs. RB 315 yards 4 TD, 11 Catches for 73 0 TD
10. Atlanta Falcons vs. RB 277 yards 2 TD, 18 Catches for 165 1 TD
RB Match-ups to exploit in week 4 are:
- Dexter McCluster faces the Vikings BUT WAIT they got back some players in Week 3 and picked up the run stuff. Only consider McCluster in PPR leagues as a strong FLEX.
- BenJarvus Green-Ellis / Stevan Ridley are both good flexes this week versus the porous Raiders. I like Ridley this week to get plenty of chances as New England burns the clock holding a lead.
- Frank Gore could easily bounce back this week against the Eagles who are allowing the most points to RB's this year.
- Tim Hightower should toss the Rams salad this week, they rank 4th in points allowed.
- LeGarrette Blount should have a bounce back week against Indy, but don't keep your hopes to high.
- Either Cedric Benson (if allowed to play) or Bernard Scott should have success this week versus Buffalo however, I'd only start Bernard Scott in PPR leagues as the Bengals will have to play from behind.
The obvious starter with exceptional match up:
- A. Peterson is an obvious start any week but this week is exceptional as he faces the Chief's who can't stop tumbleweed from blowing across the field.
Here are our Week 4 Running Back Rankings
TOP 16 Teams allowing the most fantasy points to opposing WR's this year.
1. New England Patriots vs. WR 48 catches for 794 yards and 4 TD
2. Green Bay Packers vs. WR 42 catches for 660 yards and 4 TD
3. St. Louis Rams vs. WR 34 catches for 535 yards and 6 TD
4. Miami Dolphins vs. WR 37 catches for 578 yards and 5 TD
5. New Orleans Saints vs. WR 39 catches for 525 yards and 3 TD
6. San Francisco 49ers vs. WR 36 catches for 514 yards and 5 TD
7. New York Giants vs. WR 41 catches for 606 yards and 3 TD
8. Baltimore Ravens vs. WR 50 catches for 600 yards and 3 TD
9. Arizona Cardinals vs. WR 41 catches for 581 yards and 3 TD
10. Houston Texans vs. WR 37 catches for 503 yards and 4 TD
11. Kansas City Chiefs vs. WR 37 catches for 484 yards and 4 TD
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. WR 44 catches for 582 yards and 2 TD
13. Oakland Raiders vs. WR 45 catches for 519 yards and 3 TD
14. Buffalo Bills vs. WR 36 catches for 517 yards and 3 TD
15. Denver Broncos vs. WR 42 catches for 517 yards and 3 TD
16. Carolina Panthers vs. WR 20 catches for 437 yards and 4 TD
WR Match-ups to exploit in week 4 are:
- Brandon Lloyd and Eric Decker should have a good day against Green Bay who allow the 2nd most fantasy points to WR so far this year.
- Oakland has some nice flex plays lined up for you this week but gamble at your own risk here, while someone in Oakland is going to have a great day it's hard to predict. I expect the Pats to stack the box and force Campbell to pass, Denarius Moore is poised for a break out game.
- Santana Moss WILL have a big day versus the Rams. I don't think the Rams will move the ball on offense and Washington will be able to air it out versus their weak secondary who ranks 3rd in points allowed.
- Minnesota has a possible deep sleeper in PPR formats, deep leagues only, Michael Jenkins is on the rise as a nice match-ups based flex starter and this week he gets the Chiefs who rank 11th in points allowed.
More obvious starters with great match-ups
- Larry Fitzgerald versus NYG
- Vincent Jackson, especially if Gates returns to the line-up. Miami allows the 4th most points to WR.
- Hakeem Nicks / Mario Manningham or Victor Cruz depending on Manninghams status - Arizona allows the 9th most fantasy points to WR.
TOP 10 Teams allowing the most fantasy points to opposing TE's this year.
1. Miami Dolphins vs. TE 25 catches for 315 yards and 3 TD
2. San Diego Chargers vs. TE 14 catches for 180 yards and 4 TD
3. Chicago Bears vs. TE 19 catches for 237 yards and 3 TD
4. New Orleans Saints vs. TE 14 catches for 259 yards and 2 TD
5. Kansas City Chiefs vs. TE 12 catches for 159 yards and 3 TD
6. Cincinnati Bengals vs. TE 17 catches for 217 yards and 2 TD
7. Dallas Cowboys vs. TE 15 catches for 214 yards and 2 TD
8. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. TE 21 catches for 207 yards and 2 TD
9. Green Bay Packers vs. TE 9 catches for 178 yards and 2 TD
10. Buffalo Bills vs. TE 13 catches for 164 yards and 2 TD
- Greg Olsen has a great match-up versus the Bears, nice flex play in your a Antonio Gates owner in a time of need.
- Marcedes Lewis is a deep sleeper in DEEP leagues - he faces the Saints who can't cover TE and you can bank that the Saints will score a lot of points.
- Randy McMichael (If Antonio Gates sits out) has a DECENT match-up versus Miami, but they're ranked number one in points allowed due to the thrashing they took in week 1 versus the Pats.
- Jermaine Gresham is another Antonio Gates weekly flex replacement - the Bungles will have to air it out versus the Bills who rank 10th in points allowed.
More obvious starters with great match-ups this week:
- Jimmy Graham get the Jags who have trouble with tall TE's.
- Scott Chandler gets the Cincinnati Bengals and they can't cover TE either, rankings 6th in points allowed. Chandler has a TD in every game this year, it won't stop this week.
Bouns Round for Kickers - top 10 teams allowing the most Kicker Fantasy Points
1. Cleveland Browns vs. K 10.7 points allowed
2. Kansas City Chiefs vs. K 10.3 this week they face Ryan Longwell
3. Indianapolis Colts vs. K 10.0 points allowed
4. Atlanta Falcons vs. K 9.7 points allowed
5. New Orleans Saints vs. K 9.3 points allowed
6. Chicago Bears vs. K 9.0 points allowed
7. Green Bay Packers vs. K 8.7 points allowed
8. Denver Broncos vs. K 8.7 this week they facec Jason Hanson
9. Dallas Cowboys vs. K 8.3 points allowed
10. Seattle Seahawks vs. K 8.3 points allowed
Locks this week are:
Ryan Longwell and Jason Hanson - both kickers present favorable TOP 10 match-ups this week and they're in the TOP 10 in regards to FG and XP attempts.