Today I settled into my seat at my favorite local coffee establishment and pulled up a chair to analyze the aftermath of the early morning waiver claims in my various fantasy leagues. This weekly ritual, simple though it may be, is a necessity for every fantasy manager. Not only is it important to review what moves were made (and, of course, who is left available to add instantly), but it is equally critical to take a quick look at what players were dropped each week in favor of hot performers from the Sunday before. I often find many owners’ sense of values is skewed by recent performance-- yes, it is a “What have you done for me lately?” league-- and often the tendency to overreact can lead to late-week waiver-wire value.
At any rate, there I was, cheese danish beside me, latte in hand, league homepage up in front of me when a large group of elderly women pushed a few nearby tables together and sat right next to me. As per our typical American method of impersonal individualism, I ignored them completely.
For a little while.
Until I suddenly heard, “And Judy, that (expletive removed), took Bernard Pierce super early in the draft so now with Ray Rice out I’ve got no one left to play at my second running back position this week.” (Yes, this is a direct quote from a seventy-plus year old woman. I recorded it in writing for posterity immediately.)
Needless to say, their conversation then piqued my interest. After listening to a few more sentences worth of lineup-bragging and injury-cursing I began to realize that these fantasy fans were, in fact, more competitive and foul-mouthed than the league of old college buddies I had been in for over ten years. In fact, they put our infighting (and ability to formulate creative insults) to shame. Ladies and gentlemen, it was a whole new ballgame.
And it began to dawn on me that the popularity of fantasy football -- our game -- had expanded the player demographic significantly. It was a universal: no matter one’s age, race, creed, or whatever other label one can place on another, fantasy football is a universal. Competition. Fun. Victory. Defeat. The joys of our game do not restrict themselves to boundaries of gender or generation.
As their debates over fair trades and lineup decisions began to escalate, I broke from my bonds of American social impersonality and walked over to introduce myself. I mentioned my name, that I write about fantasy, how long I’d been in a league (“Oh that was when Denise’s first grandson was born- he just got his driver’s license this year!”), and sat down to chat some football with a half-dozen septuagenarian grandmothers.
And so, to my friends and readers who would all know exactly what I meant on a week two podcast when I said, “C’mon man. You haven’t been able to trust DeAngelo Williams since the McKinley administration”, I bid you welcome. Enjoy the top-75.
...and for all you new (or old) players, first:
MY MISSION STATEMENT
What frustrates me above all else are so-called fantasy advice columns that fit into one of two categories:
1) They refuse to stray from conventional wisdom, often until it’s weeks too late to save or help your season or
2) They only offer rankings commentary on the “big-name” guys that everyone knows to play anyway. Gee, Adrian Peterson will have a bounce back week and I shouldn’t bench him for Danny Woodhead? Thanks!
Each week I will examine what I consider to be the most pressing issues facing fantasy owners. I will try to focus only on issues that you may actually be concerned with, namely: marginal flex players, tough matchup decisions, and above all else, how to assimilate new information from the previous week. This is a column of the people, by the people, for the people. And as long as I’m offering oaths, I promise to always tackle the difficult questions as I see them, not be chained by conventional wisdom, and not allow traditional or draft-position bias to affect my weekly rankings.
Week 4 Top 75
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Jamaal Charles
3. Matt Forte
4. Lesean McCoy
5. Marshawn Lynch
6. Calvin Johnson
7. AJ Green
8. Alfred Morris
9. Doug Martin
10. DeMarco Murray
11. Demaryius Thomas
12. Brandon Marshall
13. Jimmy Graham
14. Darren McFadden
15. Julio Jones
The Big Boys
Well, right call, wrong player. I ranked Lynch no. 1 last week expecting a blowout and the blowout came, but the fantasy points were all scored by other players. Welcome back to the top spot, Adrian Peterson. Matt Forte continues to impress and should have a great week in a key divisional game. I continue my belief that Calvin Johnson and AJ Green are 1 and 1A in fantasy receiver rankings, despite Green’s matchup with Joe Haden this week. Keep in mind, Charles Tillman played extremely well last year against Megatron when the Bears decided to let him go 1-on-1. Let’s see what new Chicago defensive coordinator Mel Tucker decides to do. DeMarco Murray had another great week against the Rams and I could see him continuing his production against a Chargers defensive line that isn’t exactly dominant. If there’s one player I would worry about in my top-15 it’s McFadden, but he faces Washington this week and the Redskins have been awful defensively. Finally: Jimmy Graham, beast-mode.
16. Arian Foster
17. Trent Richardson
18. Wes Welker
19. Ray Rice
20. Dez Bryant
21. Giovani Bernard
22. Reggie Bush
23. Knowshon Moreno
24. Victor Cruz
25. Julius Thomas
26. Rob Gronkowski
27. Chris Johnson
28. CJ Spiller
29. Frank Gore
30. Pierre Garcon
The Injuries Cometh
A note about several rankings: in the case of Ray Rice, the ranking assumes he plays and receives his normal carries… which early week information indicates is the likely scenario. Against Buffalo, if that’s the case, he deserves a start. The same can be said for Reggie Bush- the rank assumes he’s the main guy. In the case of CJ Spiller, I’m a little more concerned. Fred Jackson is performing annoyingly well (for Spiller owners) and really denting his value. Even if Spiller is totally healthy, he still barely cracks my top-30. Until further notice, I think we have to downgrade him; three weeks isn’t a huge sample size, but it’s enough to be concerned. Finally, the big name of note here is Rob Gronkowski. If he is indeed cleared to play, we have to assume full health, and this week’s game with Atlanta has “high-scoring” written all over it. Oh and hey, Julius Thomas. Legit.
31. Desean Jackson
32. Maurice Jones-Drew
33. Bilal Powell
34. Reggie Wayne
35. Larry Fitzgerald
36. Andre Johnson
37. Eric Decker
38. Antonio Brown
39. Jordan Cameron
40. Marques Colston
41. Steve Johnson
42. Anquan Boldin
43. Josh Gordon
44. Torrey Smith
45. Darren Sproles
Tiers and Fears
There is a clearly very interesting and lengthy wide receiver tier in this bracket. Obviously, Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson are still (even if only marginally) affected by ailments. Honestly, you can shuffle the receivers starting at 34 and ending at 44 in any order you want and you’d probably come up with a reasonable ranking order. It’s purely personal preference. Let’s see Brian Hoyer against a tougher matchup, but I think Josh Gordon is still startable in all leagues, especially during a bye. Also: yes, I’m totally buying Jordan Cameron. But this week against a Bengals team that is getting better every game, I’m tempering my expectations.
46. Lamar Miller
47. Jason Witten
48. Julian Edelman
49. Cecil Shorts
50. Jacquizz Rodgers
51. Rashard Mendenhall
52. Martellus Bennett
53. Ahmad Bradshaw
54. Tony Gonzalez
55. Ryan Matthews
56. Antonio Gates
57. Stevan Ridley
58. Denarius Moore
59. Daryl Richardson
60. Hakeem Nicks
61. Dwayne Bowe
62. Owen Daniels
63. DeAndre Hopkins
64. Kenbrell Thompkins
65. TY Hilton
66. Mike Wallace
67. Jared Cook
68. Le’Veon Bell
69. Stevan Ridley
70. Fred Jackson
71. Joique Bell
72. Marcel Reece
73. Ben Tate
74. Ryan Broyles
75. Santonio Holmes
Final Thoughts
I think Lamar Miller is interesting this week. If Miami has any chance, they have to keep the Saints offense off the field. That all starts with Lamar. Sticking with the AFC East, do the Jets really have two fantasy-usable Wide Receivers? Especially in 12+ team leagues, I think so. Holmes and Stephen Hill could both be productive this week. Again, play your guys against Washington. Marcel Reece and Denarius Moore both have great sleeper potential this week, as does Ryan Broyles despite the tougher matchup. Le’Veon Bell interests me but is too risky to use unless you’re desperate. I may be too low on Martellus Bennett. He had a down week but the Bears were up big early. Also, I may also be too low on Ahmad Bradshaw. He ran well in week three. But, I just have to believe the Colts want Trent Richardson to be the guy and to that end, will increase his usage week by week. They gave up a first-rounder to bring him in so he’s going to be the feature back in their game plan, right? Right? ...Right?
Best of luck in week four. As always, you can tweet me: @petethegreekff or follow my thoughts on my blog: www.petegreek.blogspot.com.
_PDK
