For all of the surprises in the NFL, most notably the New Orleans Saints’ 0-4 start, there are a stunning lack of them in Fantasy this season. What? Robert Griffin III as the leading point-scorer after four weeks? OK, granted, but he’s also a quarterback- traditionally the highest scoring position- and he runs. His position atop the points board is surprising, but not entirely out of this world, particularly after Cam Newton’s 2011 campaign.
How about CJ Spiller? Well, another quick look back at 2011 should also show us how Spiller’s breakout beginning after Fred Jackson went down was certainly no shock. In fact, given Jackson’s age and injury history, it was almost simply a matter of time. The Vikings sitting atop the NFC North is certainly more of a shocker.
Trent Richardson, who many had high expectations for, is performing. MJD showed up, played, and played rather well. Aaron Rodgers is back on track, Drew Brees never fell off track, the Lions are a hot mess and Matthew Stafford is kinda injured. AJ Green is stud-worthy, Brandon Marshall and the entire Bears offense are up-and-down, and the Arizona Cardinals are 4-0.
See what I mean? It’s like the regular NFL went all bizarro on us while fantasy performers, well, more or less stayed the course. Of course, as with everything, there are exceptions. What to make of Chris Johnson? Did Adrian Peterson really fully recover from an ACL tear in ten months? Can Alfred Morris keep up the pace? And so on and so forth. But the general trend of fantasy this season seems to be: yeah, ok, we thought so.
Alas! Do not be lulled to sleep by expectation and/or the meeting of it. As with every endeavor which relies on projection and conjecture, understanding what the future may hold or what fluid situations may have impact on your fantasy season depends on a critical, objective eye which is well-trained to recognize trends and anomalies, to separate the expected and likely from the tumultuous and confusing. To that end, we have our top-75 rankings...
MY MISSION STATEMENT
What frustrates me above all else are so-called fantasy advice columns that fit into one of two categories:
1) They refuse to stray from conventional wisdom, often until it’s weeks too late to save or help your season or
2) They only offer rankings commentary on the “big-name” guys that everyone knows to play anyway. Gee, Adrian Peterson will have a bounce back week and I shouldn’t bench him for Danny Woodhead? Thanks!
Each week I will examine what I consider to be the most pressing issues facing fantasy owners. I will try to focus only on issues that you may actually be concerned with, namely: marginal flex players, tough matchup decisions, and above all else, how to assimilate new information from the previous week. This is a column of the people, by the people, for the people. And as long as I’m offering oaths, I promise to always tackle the difficult questions as I see them, not be chained by conventional wisdom, and not allow traditional or draft-position bias to affect our rankings.
Week 5 Top 75
1. Arian Foster
2. Ray Rice
3. Marshawn Lynch
4. A.J. Green
5. Frank Gore
6. Adrian Peterson
7. LeSean McCoy
8. Matt Forte
9. Jamaal Charles
10. Roddy White
11. Rob Gronkowski
12. Jimmy Graham
13. Victor Cruz
14. Trent Richardson
15. Alfred Morris
The Bye-Week Big Boys
Even if Calvin Johnson wasn’t on a bye, I’d still have AJ Green as my WR1. After watching New Englad shred Buffalo on the ground, I shudder to think of what Frank Gore may do this weekend. I’m still waiting for Peterson’s injury to take its toll, but maybe I’m waiting in vain (danke, Bob Marley). Still, he’s been producing and the byes plus a juicy matchup move him on up. I expect Forte to be back to full speed, and like him a lot this week. Roddy White has a nice matchup and has reached must-start status, and the two best tight ends in the NFL keep their top-15 status. Alfred Morris is... legit? Kind of hard to believe, but a Redskins running back is worth owning, and playing, in 2012.
16. Maurice Jones-Drew
17. Michael Turner
18. Cedric Benson
19. Mike Wallace
20. Stevan Ridley
21. Brandon Marshall
22. Percy Harvin
23. Vernon Davis
24. Andre Johnson
25. Darren Sproles
26. Julio Jones
27. Wes Welker
28. Demaryius Thomas
29. Chris Johnson
30. Larry Fitzgerald
Second-Tier Statements
There’s MJD! Chicago’s defense has looked strong this season, and bottled up Demarco Murray in Dallas on Monday night. Blaine Gabbert is no Tony Romo, and the Jags just don’t have the weapons to keep Chicago honest. One of the league’s best defenses with an obvious game plan of make Gabbert beat them? I might even have Jones-Drew too high. Larry Fitzgerald had a second nice week in a row, but I’m still not buying-in wholesale. Again, the list of receivers I like above Fitz ends with Thomas. Is it obvious I like Cedric Benson? He’s getting more and more involved, and while he hasn’t found the endzone this week, he will. In fact, I think this weekend is as good a bet as any, against a worse-than-average Colts defense.
31. Reggie Bush
32. Willis McGahee
33. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
34. Antonio Gates
35. Jordy Nelson
36. Reggie Wayne
37. Tony Gonzalez
38. Eric Decker
39. Dwayne Bowe
40. Ahmad Bradshaw
41. Desean Jackson
42. Pierre Garcon
43. Marques Colston
44. Brandon Lloyd
45. Torrey Smith
Slap On Your Worry-Face
I think Reggie Bush is overcoming his injury, but the zero catches last week is disconcerting. I’m not sure Miami can stay in this game, and something simply scares me off using Bush this week. Still, he has great potential and I could easily be too low on him here. Uhm, you play everyone against the Saints, even Antonio Gates. Sticking with tight ends: I love Tony Gonzalez this week. Atlanta has looked great and the matchup is tremendous. If the Saints weren’t so terrible, I’d move him above Gates. I like all the Broncos and Patriots in what could be a reasonably high-scoring shootout. Another name I may be too low on? Ahmad Bradshaw. I think Andre Brown will get more carries sooner or later, even with Bradshaw seemingly back to full health, but probably not this week. It was nice to see a great performance out of Colston, but he remains streaky, as he has been fantasy-wise throughout his career.
46. Steve Smith
47. Donald Brown
48. Ryan Mathews
49. CJ Spiller
50. Fred Jackson
51. Steve Johnson
52. Martellus Bennett
53. Antonio Brown
54. Steven Jackson
55. Domenik Hixon
56. James Jones
57. Anquan Boldin
58. Kyle Rudolph
59. Rashard Mendenhall
60. Ryan Williams
Running Back Roullette
Pretty much every running back in the 46-60 tier is simply an unknown, a risk. I was low on Ryan Matthews last week, and the news that Jackie Battle has been moved ahead of him on the depth chart MAY just be noise, but what has Matthews done for you in 2012? That’s right. Nothing. If both Bills backs are healthy, I don’t know how to rank them. I think both are risks. Can Fred Jackson just please go away so we can all enjoy the dominance that is (a hopefully healthy) CJ Spiller? Steven Jackson has been banged up and has a terrible matchup, I’d avoid him if I could. Ideally, you’d never have to use a Cardinals running back, but if you do, Williams could be alright this week. I’m not sure what to make of Mendenhall, but if he’s back up to speed, he’s probably worth flex consideration. Don’t sleep on Hixon: he got plenty of targets and it looks like Nicks will be out again.
61. Fred Davis
62. Jonathan Stewart
63. Brian Hartline
64. Jermichael Finley
65. Dennis Pitta
66. Malcom Floyd
67. Danny Amendola
68. Jackie Battle
69. Lance Moore
70. Jeremy Maclin
71. Michael Crabtree
72. Greg Olsen
73. Jacquizz Rodgers
74. Andrew Hawkins
75. Alshon Jeffery
Final Thoughts
I’d really like to see Maclin fully healthy before moving him up in the rankings. I’m just not sure of his usage, but obviously as soon as we see him back in form, he needs to go way up. Fred Davis has 160 receiving yards over the past two weeks. He WILL find the endzone... soon. I think he’s a great option this week and moving forwards, and may even be available on waivers in some leagues. I like Quizz a lot against a bad defense, if only the plodding Michael Turner wasn’t in his way. Again, play everyone against New Orleans. Malcom Floyd should have a nice week. I think Pitta’s goose egg last week was an anomaly- he should get back to producing this week. Andy Dalton is the real deal: Andrew Hawkins may soon be startable on a more consistent basis.
Best of luck in week 5, knuckleheads! As always you can tweet QB, D/ST, PPR, or other questions to: @petethegreekff.
