Trust your gut, stick to your guns. These platitudes, cliched though they may be, remain the best words to live by when it comes to your own fantasy life and death. Oh, and when it comes to girlfriends, too. Had I followed this simpleton wisdom last week, I would have replaced Ryan Fitzpatrick with Cam Newton literally minutes before kickoff when my stomach twinged and I thought, do it, the kid is legit. Had I succumbed to the gut wrench in college that said get out I may have saved myself a few months of frustration at the hands of a slightly unstable girlfriend. I get these twinges all the time, my only mistake is not listening to them more frequently. In another league, for example, I felt the pinch and pulled David Nelson for A.J. Green at the last minute. Boom. Victory. In fantasy, as in relationships, you must believe in yourself. Use the information, use the analysis, do not be ruled by it. Trust what you believe. Act on impulse. Talk to the pretty girls you want to, no matter how random it may seem. Start LeGarette Blount over Peterson because you don’t believe in the Vikings (hey, it would have worked last week). The accumulation of random life factors, or whatever creates our ‘gut instinct’, is often far more powerful than cold, hard facts, which can change in their usefulness-of-application literally by the second.Too often we let exterior factors influence our personal decisions and too often we end up starting a guy like Kendall Hunter over Beanie Wells because ‘so-and-so ranked it that way, bro!’
No. Just... no. Not any more! I will not be governed by the shackles of, uh, society, of tradition, of history. Yes, that’s it! This week’s rankings are unencumbered. They are gloriously independent. They are ranked only as I want. I have done my best to ignore outside influences completely. To avoid anything but the numbers and my gut feelings. Week five top-75, I dub thee: “The Greek’s Gut.”
MY MISSION STATEMENT.. or, read more about how I detest mission statements
What frustrates me above all else are so-called fantasy advice columns that fit into one of two categories:
- They refuse to stray from conventional wisdom, often until it’s weeks too late to save or help your season or
- They only offer rankings commentary on the “big-name” guys that everyone knows to play anyway. Gee, Adrian Peterson will have a bounce back week and I shouldn’t bench him for Danny Woodhead? Thanks!
Each week I will examine what I consider to be the most pressing issues facing fantasy owners. I will try to focus only on issues that you may actually be concerned with, namely: marginal flex players, tough matchup decisions, and above all else, how to assimilate new information from the previous week. This is a column of the people, by the people, for the people (thanks, Abe). And as long as I’m offering oaths, I promise to always tackle the difficult questions as I see them, not be chained by conventional wisdom, and not allow traditional or draft-position bias to affect my weekly rankings.
1. Arian Foster
2. LeSean McCoy
3. Calvin Johnson
4. Darren McFadden
5. Matt Forte
6. Beanie Wells
7. Adrian Peterson
8. Wes Welker
9. Fred Jackson
10. Ryan Matthews
11. Chris Johnson
12. Maurice Jones-Drew
13. Greg Jennings
14. Ahmad Bradshaw
15. Frank Gore
The Big Boys
Despite benching Newton in the league mentioned above, I still emerged victorious thanks to Arian Foster’s big return. Personally, I find comebacks to be the best stories in sports, and Foster’s explosion was almost as sexy as skinny girls in Cage T-shirts. Almost.
Again, I go back on my promise to rank the Mc-RBs 1 and 2 for the rest of the season. While Foster himself throws a monkey wrench into this plan, so does The Megatron. Yes, Calvin Johnson has earned a “The.” He’s about as automatic as you can get, and this week gets a Bears secondary that has looked terrible the past three weeks. Yes, I think Chicago will try to take him away, and take away the deep ball in general as they always do. No, I don’t think Chicago will be successful in doing so.
Welcome to the party, Ryan Matthews! Getting most of the carries on a very effective offense? Check. He’s also produced in double-digits every game this season. The same cannot be said, for example, of even Adrian Peterson, who drops considerably. Yes, I understand I ranked Peterson below Wells in a matchup against each other. Yes, I understand Minnesota still remains decently strong against the run. No, I don’t care.
16. LeGarette Blount
17. Michael Turner
18. Vincent Jackson
19. Larry Fitzgerald
20. Jahvid Best
21. Steve Smith
22. Darren Sproles
23. Steve Johnson
24. Hakeem Nicks
25. Mike Wallace
26. Jimmy Graham
27. DeSean Jackson
28. Cedric Benson
29. JerMichael Finley
30. Jeremy Maclin
31. Rob Gronkowski
Beliefs and Blunders
Blount will get the ball. A lot. This has been shown. He was even involved in a few passing plays last week. I think his value will continue to improve as the season wears on. The top-30 is tight-end friendly this week, and while I think part of that is due to byes, I also think it’s a statement on how they are being used and also how talented they are. Jimmy Graham has been incredibly consistent, and after proving his matchup-proof ability in week three against the Texans, I have to be on board. Meanwhile, I am actually concerned about Gronkowski as Aaron Hernandez could be back as early as this week and the emergence of Stevan Ridley has taken offensive touches away from the New England aerial attack. This week is simply a must-win for Philadelphia. At the same time, Buffalo has no intention of losing two in a row. I could see Bills-Eagles as a high-scoring affair, and I think it will be the Bills who need to keep up with the Eagles. I’m high on Steve Johnson in general, and this week (despite the matchup against the Eagles corners) I see him having a nice performance.
32. Willis McGahee
33. James Starks
34. Roddy White
35. Julio Jones
36. Dwayne Bowe
37. Shonn Greene
38. Reggie Wayne
39. Santonio Holmes
40. Isaac Redman
41. Brandon Lloyd
42. Tony Gonzalez
43. A.J. Green
44. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
45. Greg Olsen
46. Eric Decker
47. Percy Harvin
48. Johnathan Stewart
49. Owen Daniels
50. Jordy Nelson
51. Stevan Riddley
Usage, Teammates
No, I don’t feel great about ranking Greene ahead of Holmes. I just have a sensation that the Jets will want to control the clock and keep the ball away from Brady. Still, they also might have to play catchup as early as the first quarter. While I think there is room for both Patriot backs in a fantasy lineup, I think for now “The Law Firm” remains the better play, with Riddley the upside option. Obviously, Redman is ranked as if Rashard Mendenhall won’t play. Reggie Wayne is still tops in Indy. Watch the games! Pierre Garcon’s monstrous week four came essentially on two passes where Garcon remembered he could run retty fast and the Buccaneers forgot they were playing football and did their best “people milling around Grant Park” impression. You know what Tony Gonzalez does? Score touchdowns. Four in four weeks. I may be a bit too high on Olsen- call it a hunch. Meanwhile Owen Daniels might deserve to be higher with Andre Johnson sidelined. I also may regret having A.J. Green this low. Now for some fun with teammates:
52. Marques Colston
53. Lance Moore
54. Robert Meachem
55. Mark Ingram
Yes, this is essentially how I feel about the New Orleans offense. “Spread it around” is more or less the understatement of the year. We simply don’t know who will get the scores, the touches, how it will play out. They are ranked here for uncertainty purposes only. Do what you will with them. For my money, I’d trade them. The only Saint I’d want is Sproles who gets guaranteed looks in both the passing AND running game, and is dynamic enough to make big plays every time he touches the ball. Trade the rest of them, if you can.
56. Plaxico Burress
57. Dustin Keller
58. LaDanian Tomlinson
Call this the “Jets playing catchup” section.
59. Mike Williams (TB)
60. Joseph Addai
61. DeAngelo Williams
62. Mike Tolbert
63. Sidney Rice
64. Pierre Garcon
65. Brandon Jacobs
66. Brandon Pettigrew
67. Mario Manningham
68. Nate Washington
70. Vernon Davis
71. Jacoby Jones
72. David Nelson
73. Denarius Moore
74. Mike Thomas
75. Deion Branch
Get more Individual Player Rankings here!
Receive Shall Give
This bottom section of flex plays is receiver-heavy. Frankly, in today’s league, the upside of wide-outs on largely pass-first offenses surpasses a mid-to-low tier back, even if said back has the starting job and, ostensibly, the goal-line carries. The player from the bottom-15 who I think is most worthy of sleeper status? Probably Jacoby Jones. Again, with Johnson out, he looks to get more targets... and will likely be Oakland’s third area of concern behind Arian Foster and Owen Daniels. I may also still be too low on Tampa’s Mike Williams, but I want to see another week of semi-reasonable production before I move him up too highly on the list. The same goes for Sidney Rice. I am very interested to see what happens with Brandon Pettigrew this week. The Bears give up a lot of short, underneath stuff and I could see him racking up both the catches and yardage. Will his current usage be a season-long trend? If so, it’s bad news for Best owners.
Best of luck this weekend. Trust your gut, use mine only as a guide. Tweet me for lineup advice as necessary: @petethegreekff.
And I’d play you in Pinball, but you ain’t got a chance
so go on over and ask her to dance. (-Sight for Sore Eyes)
A bientot...
_PDK