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Fantasy Knuckleheads

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Week 5 Fantasy Football Flex Rankings, Julio Jones On The Rise

October 5, 2011 by Greg Brosh

I will not be governed by the shackles of, uh, society, of tradition, of history. Yes, that’s it! This week’s rankings are unencumbered.

Trust your gut, stick to your guns. These platitudes, cliched though they may be, remain the best words to live by when it comes to your own fantasy life and death. Oh, and when it comes to girlfriends, too. Had I followed this simpleton wisdom last week, I would have replaced Ryan Fitzpatrick with Cam Newton literally minutes before kickoff when my stomach twinged and I thought, do it, the kid is legit. Had I succumbed to the gut wrench in college that said get out I may have saved myself a few months of frustration at the hands of a slightly unstable girlfriend. I get these twinges all the time, my only mistake is not listening to them more frequently. In another league, for example, I felt the pinch and pulled David Nelson for A.J. Green at the last minute. Boom. Victory. In fantasy, as in relationships, you must believe in yourself. Use the information, use the analysis, do not be ruled by it. Trust what you believe. Act on impulse. Talk to the pretty girls you want to, no matter how random it may seem. Start LeGarette Blount over Peterson because you don’t believe in the Vikings (hey, it would have worked last week). The accumulation of random life factors, or whatever creates our ‘gut instinct’, is often far more powerful than cold, hard facts, which can change in their usefulness-of-application literally by the second.Too often we let exterior factors influence our personal decisions and too often we end up starting a guy like Kendall Hunter over Beanie Wells because ‘so-and-so ranked it that way, bro!’

No. Just... no. Not any more! I will not be governed by the shackles of, uh, society, of tradition, of history. Yes, that’s it! This week’s rankings are unencumbered. They are gloriously independent. They are ranked only as I want. I have done my best to ignore outside influences completely. To avoid anything but the numbers and my gut feelings. Week five top-75, I dub thee: “The Greek’s Gut.”

MY MISSION STATEMENT.. or, read more about how I detest mission statements

What frustrates me above all else are so-called fantasy advice columns that fit into one of two categories:

  1. They refuse to stray from conventional wisdom, often until it’s weeks too late to save or help your season or
  2.  They only offer rankings commentary on the “big-name” guys that everyone knows to play anyway. Gee, Adrian Peterson will have a bounce back week and I shouldn’t bench him for Danny Woodhead? Thanks!

Each week I will examine what I consider to be the most pressing issues facing fantasy owners. I will try to focus only on issues that you may actually be concerned with, namely: marginal flex players, tough matchup decisions, and above all else, how to assimilate new information from the previous week. This is a column of the people, by the people, for the people (thanks, Abe). And as long as I’m offering oaths, I promise to always tackle the difficult questions as I see them, not be chained by conventional wisdom, and not allow traditional or draft-position bias to affect my weekly rankings.

1. Arian Foster

2. LeSean McCoy

3. Calvin Johnson

4. Darren McFadden

5. Matt Forte

6. Beanie Wells

7. Adrian Peterson

8. Wes Welker

9. Fred Jackson

10. Ryan Matthews

11. Chris Johnson

12. Maurice Jones-Drew

13. Greg Jennings

14. Ahmad Bradshaw

15. Frank Gore

The Big Boys

Despite benching Newton in the league mentioned above, I still emerged victorious thanks to Arian Foster’s big return. Personally, I find comebacks to be the best stories in sports, and Foster’s explosion was almost as sexy as skinny girls in Cage T-shirts. Almost.

Again, I go back on my promise to rank the Mc-RBs 1 and 2 for the rest of the season. While Foster himself throws a monkey wrench into this plan, so does The Megatron. Yes, Calvin Johnson has earned a “The.” He’s about as automatic as you can get, and this week gets a Bears secondary that has looked terrible the past three weeks. Yes, I think Chicago will try to take him away, and take away the deep ball in general as they always do. No, I don’t think Chicago will be successful in doing so.

Welcome to the party, Ryan Matthews! Getting most of the carries on a very effective offense? Check. He’s also produced in double-digits every game this season. The same cannot be said, for example, of even Adrian Peterson, who drops considerably. Yes, I understand I ranked Peterson below Wells in a matchup against each other. Yes, I understand Minnesota still remains decently strong against the run. No, I don’t care.

16. LeGarette Blount

17. Michael Turner

18. Vincent Jackson

19. Larry Fitzgerald

20. Jahvid Best

21. Steve Smith

22. Darren Sproles

23. Steve Johnson

24. Hakeem Nicks

25. Mike Wallace

26. Jimmy Graham

27. DeSean Jackson

28. Cedric Benson

29. JerMichael Finley

30. Jeremy Maclin

31. Rob Gronkowski

Beliefs and Blunders

Blount will get the ball. A lot. This has been shown. He was even involved in a few passing plays last week. I think his value will continue to improve as the season wears on. The top-30 is tight-end friendly this week, and while I think part of that is due to byes, I also think it’s a statement on how they are being used and also how talented they are. Jimmy Graham has been incredibly consistent, and after proving his matchup-proof ability in week three against the Texans, I have to be on board. Meanwhile, I am actually concerned about Gronkowski as Aaron Hernandez could be back as early as this week and the emergence of Stevan Ridley has taken offensive touches away from the New England aerial attack. This week is simply a must-win for Philadelphia. At the same time, Buffalo has no intention of losing two in a row. I could see Bills-Eagles as a high-scoring affair, and I think it will be the Bills who need to keep up with the Eagles. I’m high on Steve Johnson in general, and this week (despite the matchup against the Eagles corners) I see him having a nice performance.

32. Willis McGahee

33. James Starks

34. Roddy White

35. Julio Jones

36. Dwayne Bowe

37. Shonn Greene

38. Reggie Wayne

39. Santonio Holmes

40. Isaac Redman

41. Brandon Lloyd

42. Tony Gonzalez

43. A.J. Green

44. BenJarvus Green-Ellis

45. Greg Olsen

46. Eric Decker

47. Percy Harvin

48. Johnathan Stewart

49. Owen Daniels

50. Jordy Nelson

51. Stevan Riddley

Usage, Teammates

No, I don’t feel great about ranking Greene ahead of Holmes. I just have a sensation that the Jets will want to control the clock and keep the ball away from Brady. Still, they also might have to play catchup as early as the first quarter. While I think there is room for both Patriot backs in a fantasy lineup, I think for now “The Law Firm” remains the better play, with Riddley the upside option. Obviously, Redman is ranked as if Rashard Mendenhall won’t play. Reggie Wayne is still tops in Indy. Watch the games! Pierre Garcon’s monstrous week four came essentially on two passes where Garcon remembered he could run retty fast and the Buccaneers forgot they were playing football and did their best “people milling around Grant Park” impression. You know what Tony Gonzalez does? Score touchdowns. Four in four weeks. I may be a bit too high on Olsen- call it a hunch. Meanwhile Owen Daniels might deserve to be higher with Andre Johnson sidelined. I also may regret having A.J. Green this low. Now for some fun with teammates:

52. Marques Colston

53. Lance Moore

54. Robert Meachem

55. Mark Ingram

Yes, this is essentially how I feel about the New Orleans offense. “Spread it around” is more or less the understatement of the year. We simply don’t know who will get the scores, the touches, how it will play out. They are ranked here for uncertainty purposes only. Do what you will with them. For my money, I’d trade them. The only Saint I’d want is Sproles who gets guaranteed looks in both the passing AND running game, and is dynamic enough to make big plays every time he touches the ball. Trade the rest of them, if you can.

56. Plaxico Burress

57. Dustin Keller

58. LaDanian Tomlinson

Call this the “Jets playing catchup” section.

59. Mike Williams (TB)

60. Joseph Addai

61. DeAngelo Williams

62. Mike Tolbert

63. Sidney Rice

64. Pierre Garcon

65. Brandon Jacobs

66. Brandon Pettigrew

67. Mario Manningham

68. Nate Washington

70. Vernon Davis

71. Jacoby Jones

72. David Nelson

73. Denarius Moore

74. Mike Thomas

75. Deion Branch

Get more Individual Player Rankings here!

Receive Shall Give

This bottom section of flex plays is receiver-heavy. Frankly, in today’s league, the upside of wide-outs on largely pass-first offenses surpasses a mid-to-low tier back, even if said back has the starting job and, ostensibly, the goal-line carries. The player from the bottom-15 who I think is most worthy of sleeper status? Probably Jacoby Jones. Again, with Johnson out, he looks to get more targets... and will likely be Oakland’s third area of concern behind Arian Foster and Owen Daniels. I may also still be too low on Tampa’s Mike Williams, but I want to see another week of semi-reasonable production before I move him up too highly on the list. The same goes for Sidney Rice. I am very interested to see what happens with Brandon Pettigrew this week. The Bears give up a lot of short, underneath stuff and I could see him racking up both the catches and yardage. Will his current usage be a season-long trend? If so, it’s bad news for Best owners.

Best of luck this weekend. Trust your gut, use mine only as a guide. Tweet me for lineup advice as necessary: @petethegreekff.

And I’d play you in Pinball, but you ain’t got a chance

so go on over and ask her to dance. (-Sight for Sore Eyes)

A bientot...

_PDK

Category - Fantasy Football News and Analysis - Week 5 Fantasy Football Flex Rankings, Julio Jones On The Rise

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