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Week 5 Flex Rankings

October 3, 2012 by Kurt Turner

Top 75 Fantasy Football Flex Rankings

For all of the surprises in the NFL, most notably the New Orleans Saints’ 0-4 start, there are a stunning lack of them in Fantasy this season. What? Robert Griffin III as the leading point-scorer after four weeks? OK, granted, but he’s also a quarterback- traditionally the highest scoring position- and he runs. His position atop the points board is surprising, but not entirely out of this world, particularly after Cam Newton’s 2011 campaign.

How about CJ Spiller? Well, another quick look back at 2011 should also show us how Spiller’s breakout beginning after Fred Jackson went down was certainly no shock. In fact, given Jackson’s age and injury history, it was almost simply a matter of time. The Vikings sitting atop the NFC North is certainly more of a shocker.

Trent Richardson, who many had high expectations for, is performing. MJD showed up, played, and played rather well. Aaron Rodgers is back on track, Drew Brees never fell off track, the Lions are a hot mess and Matthew Stafford is kinda injured. AJ Green is stud-worthy, Brandon Marshall and the entire Bears offense are up-and-down, and the Arizona Cardinals are 4-0.

See what I mean? It’s like the regular NFL went all bizarro on us while fantasy performers, well, more or less stayed the course. Of course, as with everything, there are exceptions. What to make of Chris Johnson? Did Adrian Peterson really fully recover from an ACL tear in ten months? Can Alfred Morris keep up the pace? And so on and so forth. But the general trend of fantasy this season seems to be: yeah, ok, we thought so.

Alas! Do not be lulled to sleep by expectation and/or the meeting of it. As with every endeavor which relies on projection and conjecture, understanding what the future may hold or what fluid situations may have impact on your fantasy season depends on a critical, objective eye which is well-trained to recognize trends and anomalies, to separate the expected and likely from the tumultuous and confusing. To that end, we have our top-75 rankings...

 

MY MISSION STATEMENT

What frustrates me above all else are so-called fantasy advice columns that fit into one of two categories:

1) They refuse to stray from conventional wisdom, often until it’s weeks too late to save or help your season or

2) They only offer rankings commentary on the “big-name” guys that everyone knows to play anyway. Gee, Adrian Peterson will have a bounce back week and I shouldn’t bench him for Danny Woodhead? Thanks!

Each week I will examine what I consider to be the most pressing issues facing fantasy owners. I will try to focus only on issues that you may actually be concerned with, namely: marginal flex players, tough matchup decisions, and above all else, how to assimilate new information from the previous week. This is a column of the people, by the people, for the people. And as long as I’m offering oaths, I promise to always tackle the difficult questions as I see them, not be chained by conventional wisdom, and not allow traditional or draft-position bias to affect our rankings.

 

Week 5 Top 75

 

1. Arian Foster

2. Ray Rice

3. Marshawn Lynch

4. A.J. Green

5. Frank Gore

6. Adrian Peterson

7. LeSean McCoy

8. Matt Forte

9. Jamaal Charles

10. Roddy White

11. Rob Gronkowski

12. Jimmy Graham

13. Victor Cruz

14. Trent Richardson

15. Alfred Morris

 

The Bye-Week Big Boys

Even if Calvin Johnson wasn’t on a bye, I’d still have AJ Green as my WR1. After watching New Englad shred Buffalo on the ground, I shudder to think of what Frank Gore may do this weekend. I’m still waiting for Peterson’s injury to take its toll, but maybe I’m waiting in vain (danke, Bob Marley). Still, he’s been producing and the byes plus a juicy matchup move him on up. I expect Forte to be back to full speed, and like him a lot this week. Roddy White has a nice matchup and has reached must-start status, and the two best tight ends in the NFL keep their top-15 status. Alfred Morris is... legit? Kind of hard to believe, but a Redskins running back is worth owning, and playing, in 2012.

 

16. Maurice Jones-Drew

17. Michael Turner

18. Cedric Benson

19. Mike Wallace

20. Stevan Ridley

21. Brandon Marshall

22. Percy Harvin

23. Vernon Davis

24. Andre Johnson

25. Darren Sproles

26. Julio Jones

27. Wes Welker

28. Demaryius Thomas

29. Chris Johnson

30. Larry Fitzgerald

 

Second-Tier Statements

There’s MJD! Chicago’s defense has looked strong this season, and bottled up Demarco Murray in Dallas on Monday night. Blaine Gabbert is no Tony Romo, and the Jags just don’t have the weapons to keep Chicago honest. One of the league’s best defenses with an obvious game plan of make Gabbert beat them? I might even have Jones-Drew too high. Larry Fitzgerald had a second nice week in a row, but I’m still not buying-in wholesale. Again, the list of receivers I like above Fitz ends with Thomas. Is it obvious I like Cedric Benson? He’s getting more and more involved, and while he hasn’t found the endzone this week, he will. In fact, I think this weekend is as good a bet as any, against a worse-than-average Colts defense.

 

31. Reggie Bush

32. Willis McGahee

33. BenJarvus Green-Ellis

34. Antonio Gates

35. Jordy Nelson

36. Reggie Wayne

37. Tony Gonzalez

38. Eric Decker

39. Dwayne Bowe

40. Ahmad Bradshaw

41. Desean Jackson

42. Pierre Garcon

43. Marques Colston

44. Brandon Lloyd

45. Torrey Smith

 

Slap On Your Worry-Face

I think Reggie Bush is overcoming his injury, but the zero catches last week is disconcerting. I’m not sure Miami can stay in this game, and something simply scares me off using Bush this week. Still, he has great potential and I could easily be too low on him here. Uhm, you play everyone against the Saints, even Antonio Gates. Sticking with tight ends: I love Tony Gonzalez this week. Atlanta has looked great and the matchup is tremendous. If the Saints weren’t so terrible, I’d move him above Gates. I like all the Broncos and Patriots in what could be a reasonably high-scoring shootout. Another name I may be too low on? Ahmad Bradshaw. I think Andre Brown will get more carries sooner or later, even with Bradshaw seemingly back to full health, but probably not this week. It was nice to see a great performance out of Colston, but he remains streaky, as he has been fantasy-wise throughout his career.

 

46. Steve Smith

47. Donald Brown

48. Ryan Mathews

49. CJ Spiller

50. Fred Jackson

51. Steve Johnson

52. Martellus Bennett

53. Antonio Brown

54. Steven Jackson

55. Domenik Hixon

56. James Jones

57. Anquan Boldin

58. Kyle Rudolph

59. Rashard Mendenhall

60. Ryan Williams

 

Running Back Roullette

Pretty much every running back in the 46-60 tier is simply an unknown, a risk. I was low on Ryan Matthews last week, and the news that Jackie Battle has been moved ahead of him on the depth chart MAY just be noise, but what has Matthews done for you in 2012? That’s right. Nothing. If both Bills backs are healthy, I don’t know how to rank them. I think both are risks. Can Fred Jackson just please go away so we can all enjoy the dominance that is (a hopefully healthy) CJ Spiller? Steven Jackson has been banged up and has a terrible matchup, I’d avoid him if I could. Ideally, you’d never have to use a Cardinals running back, but if you do, Williams could be alright this week. I’m not sure what to make of Mendenhall, but if he’s back up to speed, he’s probably worth flex consideration. Don’t sleep on Hixon: he got plenty of targets and it looks like Nicks will be out again.

 

61. Fred Davis

62. Jonathan Stewart

63. Brian Hartline

64. Jermichael Finley

65. Dennis Pitta

66. Malcom Floyd

67. Danny Amendola

68. Jackie Battle

69. Lance Moore

70. Jeremy Maclin

71. Michael Crabtree

72. Greg Olsen

73. Jacquizz Rodgers

74. Andrew Hawkins

75. Alshon Jeffery

 

Final Thoughts

I’d really like to see Maclin fully healthy before moving him up in the rankings. I’m just not sure of his usage, but obviously as soon as we see him back in form, he needs to go way up. Fred Davis has 160 receiving yards over the past two weeks. He WILL find the endzone... soon. I think he’s a great option this week and moving forwards, and may even be available on waivers in some leagues. I like Quizz a lot against a bad defense, if only the plodding Michael Turner wasn’t in his way. Again, play everyone against New Orleans. Malcom Floyd should have a nice week. I think Pitta’s goose egg last week was an anomaly- he should get back to producing this week. Andy Dalton is the real deal: Andrew Hawkins may soon be startable on a more consistent basis.

 

Best of luck in week 5, knuckleheads! As always you can tweet QB, D/ST, PPR, or other questions to: @petethegreekff.

Category - Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 5 Flex Rankings

Dominate Your League

About Kurt Turner

Kurt's fantasy advice is featured on USA Today Sports, Bleacher Reports, SiriusXM and Fox Sports. He is the owner of FantasyKnuckleheads.com and has been butchering topics here for over 15 years. Follow him on Twitter

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