Week 5 Match-ups To Avoid and Exploit ~ By the Numbers

The Colts won't be monkeying around in Week 5

Unless you're a stats geek with too much time on your hands, you probably don't look too deeply at weekly match-ups, beyond this team is good, and that one stinks. Quite often, that is all you need. For those of you who want a more accurate look but don't have the time to invest, that's what Top Fantasy is here for. My name is Rustyn and I'm a fantasy geek. So take advantage of my illness, and let's see if we can't use it to help you improve your fantasy decision making this week. These suggestions are all made "by the numbers", meaning statistically these are either advisable or poor match-ups in terms of fantasy production I'll try to keep opinion out of it, and give you just the stats, man. Just the stats.

The top 5 easiest are the teams surrendering the most points to a given position. The guys listed are advisable plays. The top 5 toughest are the teams that surrender the least points at a given position. The guys listed are advisable sits, based solely on the numbers. As an example, the numbers tell me to sit Rams RB Steven Jackson this week, but since St. Louis has no other offensive options, I'll probably start him anyway, though according to the stats, he's looking at a bad day.

-- QB Match-ups to Exploit or Avoid--

Top 5 Easiest vs. QBs		Passing					Rushing			Fantasy
Team	G	Cmp	Att	Yard	TD	INT	Att	Yard	TD	Ftsy Pts Allowed	Week 5 Opp
1. Tennessee Titans	4	102	149	1,214	10	3	17	55	1	112.2	P. Manning
2. Detroit Lions	4	95	131	1,008	12	2	7	26	1	107.0	Roethlisberger
3. Arizona Cardinals	3	65	109	870	7	2	6	26	0	74.1	M. Schaub
4. Jacksonville Jaguars	4	110	153	1,150	7	4	9	7	1	92.2	M. Hasselbeck
5. Kansas City Chiefs	4	77	139	1,035	8	2	13	21	1	91.9	T. Romo

Top 5 Toughest vs. QBs		Passing					Rushing			Fantasy
Team	G	Cmp	Att	Yard	TD	INT	Att	Yard	TD	Ftsy Pts Allowed	Week 5 Opp
28. Indianapolis Colts	4	101	160	901	2	3	9	26	1	61.7	K. Collins
29. Washington Redskins	4	69	115	728	4	2	14	70	0	59.4	J. Delhomme
30. New York Giants	4	58	113	523	4	5	9	62	1	54.4	J. Russell
31. New York Jets	4	76	149	742	1	4	6	16	0	42.7	C. Henne
32. Denver Broncos	4	76	127	724	0	6	7	28	0	39.0	T. Brady

-- RB Match-ups to Exploit or Avoid--

Top 5 Easiest vs. RBs		Rushing			Receiving			Fantasy
Team	G	Att	Yard	TD	Rec	Yard	TD	Ftsy Pts Allowed	Week 5 Opp
1. Cleveland Browns	4	117	616	8	24	183	0	127.9	Lynch/Jackson
2. Buffalo Bills	4	112	551	7	24	170	1	120.1	Harrison/Lewis
3. Houston Texans	4	101	542	7	22	169	1	119.1	Hightower/Wells
4. Carolina Panthers	3	84	445	2	12	77	2	76.2	C. Portis
5. Oakland Raiders	4	133	533	4	20	167	1	100.0	Jacobs/Bradshaw

Top 5 Toughest vs RBs		Rushing			Receiving			Fantasy
Team	G	Att	Yard	TD	Rec	Yard	TD	Ftsy Pts Allowed	Week 5 Opp
28. Denver Broncos	4	86	269	2	27	186	0	57.5	Patriot RBs
29. Miami Dolphins	4	78	240	1	20	187	1	54.7	T. Jones
30. Minnesota Vikings	4	86	294	0	18	172	0	46.6	S. Jackson
31. Tennessee Titans	4	92	252	1	13	92	0	40.4	Addai/Brown
32. Pittsburgh Steelers	4	63	223	1	14	95	0	37.8	K. Smith

-- WR Match-ups to Exploit or Avoid--

Top 5 Easiest Vs. WRs		Receiving			Fantasy
Team	G	Rec	Yard	TD	Ftsy Pts Allowed	Week 5 Opp
1. Tennessee Titans	4	61	810	7	123.0	Wayne/Collie/Garcon
2. Jacksonville Jaguars	4	65	825	5	112.5	Houshmandzedah/Burleson
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	30	603	8	108.3	DeSean Jackson
4. Arizona Cardinals	3	38	574	3	75.4	A. Johnson/K. Walter
5. Kansas City Chiefs	4	42	670	5	97.0	Crayton/Austin/Hurd

Week 5 Toughest vs. WRs		Receiving			Fantasy
Team	G	Rec	Yard	TD	Ftsy Pts Allowed	Week 5 Opp
28. Minnesota Vikings	4	32	386	2	50.6	D. Avery
29. Carolina Panthers	3	25	312	1	37.2	S. Moss/Randle El
30. New York Jets	4	42	433	1	49.3	Ginn, Jr./Hartline
31. Denver Broncos	4	39	445	0	44.5	R. Moss/Welker/Galloway
32. New York Giants	4	24	256	1	31.6	Murphy/Heyward-Bey

-- TE Match-ups to Exploit or Avoid--

Top 5 Easiest vs. TEs		Receiving			Fantasy
Team	G	Rec	Yard	TD	Ftsy Pts Allowed	Week 5 Opp
1. Minnesota Vikings	4	30	378	4	61.8	McMichael/Fells
2. Buffalo Bills	4	24	253	4	49.3	R. Royal
3. Tennessee Titans	4	28	312	3	49.2	D. Clark
4. Pittsburgh Steelers	4	25	264	3	44.4	B. Pettigrew
5. Miami Dolphins	4	17	320	2	44.0	D. Keller

Top 5 Toughest vs. TEs		Receiving			Fantasy
Team	G	Rec	Yard	TD	Ftsy Pts Allowed	Week 5 Opp
28. Washington Redskins	4	11	154	0	15.4	D. Rosario
29. Philadelphia Eagles	3	12	103	0	10.3	K. Winslow
30. San Francisco 49ers	4	11	102	0	10.2	T. Gonzalez
31. Denver Broncos	4	10	93	0	9.3	Watson/Baker
32. Indianapolis Colts	4	13	91	0	9.1	Crumpler/Scaife

--Team to Team Match-ups to Exploit or Avoid--

Here I will look at some of this week's mismatches. Net Points (NP) is points scored vs. points against through the first quarter of games.

For fantasy owners, this says it all.

Minnesota Vikings vs St. Louis Rams			New York Giants vs. Oakland Raiders
MIN NP = 38	STL NP = -84	Advantage MIN: 122 Pts	NYG NP = 43	OAK NP = -44	Advantage NYG: 87 Pts
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans			Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
IND NP = 44	TEN NP = -33	Advantage IND: 77 Pts	PHI NP = 22	TBB NP = -53	Advantage PHI: 75 Pts